Dying in slow mode in the time of change

We Nigerians are suffering a slow death from power shortages. In fact, now that Boko Haram is almost history and the fight on corruption is yielding dividends, inadequate electricity is arguably our number one problem in Nigeria. Power Minister Babatunde Fashola should have foreseen this and planned well in advance. I’m convinced that he didn’t, […]

We Nigerians are suffering a slow death from power shortages. In fact, now that Boko Haram is almost history and the fight on corruption is yielding dividends, inadequate electricity is arguably our number one problem in Nigeria. Power Minister Babatunde Fashola should have foreseen this and planned well in advance. I’m convinced that he didn’t, but it is not too late for him to re-strategize and change course.
Fashola’s long-term plans are good. Niger Delta terrorists damage pipelines supplying gas to power stations, so we must find alternatives to gas power plants. Mambilla Hydroelectric will soon commence, and when completed, will provide 2,600 Mw of electricity. Our Russian-built nuclear plants in Akwa Ibom and Kogi will add another 4,800 Mw to the national grid beginning in 2025. Some states are building solar power plants, and Sokoto’s long-delayed 38 Mw gas plant is near completion.
But those projects will either take too long to mature or won’t produce enough electricity for our needs. So, we also need short-term solutions to the power shortages which yearly cost Nigeria 3% in GDP growth according to a 2014 Bloomberg report. Look at it this way. If we will truly witness a recession in this quarter as some economists claim, we could have avoided that with adequate electricity. Nigeria’s 2014 GDP was $509 billion, meaning she will lose over $15 billion in 2016 just from inadequate electricity. How many job losses will accompany that? No wonder banks have been retrenching, and federal job-recruitments are overwhelmed.
Just think of the welders, hair-dressers, internet cafes, hotels and private clinics in your neighbourhood who either closed shop or daily spend huge sums on generator fuel to stay in business – money that should have counted as profits, raised tax revenues and get re-invested into business. Think of what Nigerians spend daily to fuel home generators, and what federal and state MDAs spend to function 8am – 4pm and you will see the problem. Some federal hospitals spend over a million naira a day on generator fuel and maintenance – money that could buy MRI scanners.
In short, poor power supply costs Nigeria more than a 3% loss of GDP since it also causes loss of human life at hospitals that can’t afford generator fuel, fatal accidents at night, and a high crime rate in unlit neighbourhoods. These are not problems to be solved by long-term planning. So, I expected Fashola to have also planned short-term after he became power minister. But it is not too late and he can still address them by building coal-fired power plants. Why coal? Because Nigeria is now broke, and coal power plants are cheap and fast to build.
The picture here shows the 1,850 Mw Hongsa Power Plant in Laos built by a Chinese company during 2011-2015 at the cost of $1.68 billion. If a plant half this size can be built for $850 million within three years, then our six geopolitical zones could be generating 925 Mw each by late 2018 from coal alone. At a total cost of $5.1 billion, the federal government would have lacked funds for the six plants, but Nigeria being a federation and power companies being no longer federal agencies, the federal government would have every right to force states and local governments to contribute to the projects.
No doubt, coal pollutes the atmosphere to cause global warming, but notice that the same countries championing this cause still use coal to generate electricity more than they use the cleaner natural gas, nuclear power and renewable energy such as solar power and wind mills. I’ve read of Fashola discussing plans for Nigeria to build coal-powered plants at his town hall meetings, but I have waited in vain for a contract or MoU on a coal-fired power plant.
Next, Fashola should break our inefficient national grid into six, such that each geopolitical zone will produce its own electricity. For the North East and North West, 950 Mw won’t be enough, but necessity being the mother of invention, let each region tastes darkness for a few months and you will see wonders. Still, even with the North East and North West doing nothing new, the Mambilla, Sokoto, Tiga and Challawa hydropower projects,; the Katsina windmill; and the planned solar projects in Kaduna and Jigawa could produce electricity more than is needed for local consumption. That excess could feed other zones or get exported to Cameroon and Niger for hard currency.
So, Babatunde Fashola, please wake up from your slumber to solve the acute electricity problem now retarding Nigeria’s progress. You have been blaming Niger Delta terrorists for sabotaging your goals. But I blame you. If I wanted the same old excuses for our power shortages, I should have voted for Jonathan and the PDP in 2015. Instead, I voted for change, which in my dictionary means a holistic change in the way that Nigerian governments solve national problems.
Dr. N. H. Alkali, a Neurologist, wrote this piece from Bauchi. He can be reached at [email protected]