El-Rufai’s defection and APC’s growing fractures

Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, on Monday, parted ways with the All Progressives Congress (APC) and pitched his tent with the Social Democratic Party (SDP). While party defections are not uncommon in Nigerian politics, El-Rufai’s exit from the ruling party carries deep political undercurrents that could reshape the dynamics ahead of the 2027 elections. […]

Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, on Monday, parted ways with the All Progressives Congress (APC) and pitched his tent with the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

While party defections are not uncommon in Nigerian politics, El-Rufai’s exit from the ruling party carries deep political undercurrents that could reshape the dynamics ahead of the 2027 elections.

For a man instrumental in the formation of the APC and a staunch ally of former President Muhammadu Buhari, El-Rufai’s departure raises critical questions. Is this a strategic move to remain politically relevant? A protest against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s leadership? Or does it signal widening cracks within the APC that could deepen in the coming years?

El-Rufai’s political journey within the APC has been marked by loyalty, controversy and influence. As a key figure in the party’s 2015 victory over the PDP, he was regarded as one of the strongest voices in Buhari’s inner circle.

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His tenure as Kaduna governor further solidified his image as a reformist, albeit one who often courted controversy. From restructuring Kaduna’s civil service to his hardline stance on security issues, El-Rufai commanded attention.

Many expected him to secure a prominent role in Tinubu’s government. However, cracks began to show when he was dropped from the ministerial list.

El-Rufai’s exit from the APC is not a spur-of-the-moment decision; it is the culmination of growing frustration. His rejection as a minister was seen by many as a deliberate sidelining, marking the beginning of his alienation from the ruling party’s core decision-making.

Reports suggest he became increasingly disillusioned with Tinubu’s governance style, particularly in handling economic and security challenges. The former governor is known for his bluntness, and sources indicate that his inability to influence policies within the APC played a significant role in his decision.

While his supporters argue that his move to the SDP is based on principle, critics suggest it is driven by personal ambition—positioning himself for a possible political comeback in 2027.

El-Rufai’s choice of the SDP, rather than the PDP or a new political movement, is intriguing. The SDP remains a relatively small force compared to the APC and PDP, raising questions about whether he truly believes in the party’s ideology or sees it as a convenient platform to negotiate his future.

Expectedly, the APC has brushed off El-Rufai’s departure, with the Presidency dismissing it as driven by “inordinate ambition.”

However, political observers note that El-Rufai’s defection could have ripple effects. While he may not command a nationwide political structure, his ability to shape narratives, especially in northern politics, should not be underestimated.

El-Rufai’s defection is not just about one man leaving a party—it is a reflection of deeper tensions within the APC. Since taking power in 2023, Tinubu has had to balance competing interests within the ruling party, from former Buhari loyalists to his own political allies. The cracks within the party are becoming more visible, and if not managed properly, they could deepen before 2027.

For El-Rufai, the road ahead is uncertain. Aligning with the SDP may be a strategic step, but it remains to be seen whether it will translate into real political leverage. Is this the beginning of a broader coalition to challenge APC dominance, or will it end up as another failed defection story in Nigeria’s political history?

One thing is clear—El-Rufai’s move has re-ignited conversations about Nigeria’s shifting political landscape. Whether it leads to a major realignment or fizzles out as an individual protest remains to be seen.

 

Abdulhamid Abdullahi Aliyu is a corps member at the Centre for Crisis Communication, Abuja