Events that will shape 2017 in 10 states
Kaduna Opposition to the leadership style of Governor Nasir el-Rufai has already set the tone for what will dominate the political space in Kaduna in 2017. The opposition is both within the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the other parties like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This determines the reaction to government policies and programmes […]
Kaduna
Opposition to the leadership style of Governor Nasir el-Rufai has already set the tone for what will dominate the political space in Kaduna in 2017.
The opposition is both within the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the other parties like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This determines the reaction to government policies and programmes in the state.
But the major friction would be within the ruling party, which now has a splinter group called the APC Akida.
Their grouse stems from the fact that key positions in the State Executive Committee of the party in Kaduna State have remained vacant since the inauguration of the El-Rufai-led administration.
The chairman of the party, Yusuf Bala, was nominated as the running mate to El-Rufai, and since the duo won the election, the post has remained vacant while the deputy chairman has been acting.
More key officials of the party were to toe the line of the deputy governor when they were appointed into El-Rufai’s cabinet. The state publicity secretary of the party was also appointed as chairmen of local government caretaker committees.
This has continued to agitate the minds of other stakeholders who have demanded for a by-election to fill the existing posts.
The APC Akida has demanded that all vacant positions at all levels within the party must be filled. The agitation is likely to increase in the coming year as that was a major point of disagreement between party members who are with the governor and those opposed to his style of administration.
The governor had, on assumption of office, also dissolved the local government councils and sent the officials packing. He promised to conduct fresh election to fill the councils with a set of democratically elected leaders. It is more than a year since he made the promise, but there’s no indication that the local government election would hold soon.
The state government has, however, constituted the State Independent Electoral Commission and sent some of its officials to India and Brazil to study and explore the possibility of using the electronic voting system.
The opposition PDP says the government is scared of holding the election because it will lose many local governments, but the government says it is not scared but hindered by a court action instituted by one of the removed chairmen.
Again, it is obvious that the issues surrounding the suspension of Senator Shehu Sani from the APC will continue. Sani was suspended in January for 11 months. And just when the suspension was to expire, the executive of the party at his Tudun Wada Ward 6 extended the penalty indefinitely.
The senator reacted by calling the governor and his aides all sorts of names, saying they were behind the decision of the party.
Although Governor El-Rufai has refused to respond, it is clear that the rivalry between the two political leaders is not about to subside and may even worsen as political activities begin next year.
Kogi
In Kogi State, one of the major issues expected to dominate the political space in the New Year is the likely reshuffling of the present cabinet as constituted by Governor Yahaya Bello.
Following the demise of the governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the November 21, 2015 election, Prince Abubakar Audu, there have been disenchantment and internal crisis in the Kogi State chapter of the party.
Observers say the disenchantment and wrangling in the APC fold are largely due to the inability of Governor Bello to incorporate critical stakeholders from the Audu/Faleke group into his cabinet.
Recently, the deputy governorship candidate of the party in the November 21, 2015 election in the state, James Faleke, said there could be no genuine reconciliation in the absence of justice and fair play.
Faleke, who spoke in Ogbonicha, Kogi State, on November 22, 2016, during the one year remembrance of the late political icon, Prince Audu, lamented that he had never been involved in any reconciliation process with the leadership of the state government because of the “injustice perpetrated by the party.”
A chieftain of the APC and former acting governor of the state, Chief Clarence Olafemi, also said the exclusion of those who worked for the victory of the party in the state remained the key factor for the lingering crisis.
He expressed concern that enough effort was not made to reconcile aggrieved party stakeholders, nine months after the inauguration of the present administration.
“What is causing problem in the state APC is similar to what is happening at the centre. Some people believe they really worked for the party. And they actually did; it is not easy to defeat a sitting governor.
“If they say there should be reconciliation, then they will have to be cabinet reshuffle because the percentage of those who are aggrieved is high. My fear is that with the upcoming new parties, a lot of them will migrate. I don’t want a repeat of what killed the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state,” Olafemi said.
In view of the foregoing, there are strong indications, according to sources, that the governor would effect some changes in his cabinet early January so as to accommodate aggrieved members from the Audu/Faleke group.
It was also learnt that there would be changes among the sole administrators appointed by the governor to run the affairs of the 21 local government areas of the state. Governor Bello is also expected to make some board appointments in the early part of next year to fill all existing vacancies.
Rivers
Event watchers in Rivers State are of the opinion that the political feud between the Minister of Transportation Chibuike Amaechi and the Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike will be sustained in 2017.
The two political gladiators are in a fierce battle on who calls the shot in the state. The December 10 rerun election had provided a platform for the political warlords to test their might. The political turf in the state was heightened prior to the December rerun election. There was tension, just as residents were frightened as a result of the dangerous hate speeches that emanated from the two political leaders.
The fight between the once political soul-mates seems to have gone beyond politics as most of their conducts and utterances were personalised. Governor Wike relied on some of the projects he delivered in the state within 18 months in office as a passport to shoot him into political limelight.
With some of the abandoned projects he inherited from Amaechi and new ones he initiated and completed, the governor expressed optimism that his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), would win any election in the state at any given time.
Amaechi, on his part, said his legacies in the state, such as the 13,000 teachers employed by his administration, would turn things around for his party. The rerun election, which was marred by violence, harassment of voters by the security agencies, as well as ballot snatching, brought Amaechi and Wike on a collision course as there were accusations and counter accusations on who did what during the exercise.
While Wike believes the minister of transportation unleashed federal might on the state as security agencies were accused of conniving with chieftains of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to hijack and divert electoral materials, Amaechi claimed that the governor and his party had been killing APC members in the state. Of a particular mention was Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni Local Government Area, where the minister alleged that over 200 APC members were killed.
During the election, about five persons, including a senior police officer, DSP Akali and his aide, were killed. The PDP won Rivers East and West senatorial districts while the APC captured Rivers South-East. In the House of Representatives, the APC won three seats while the PDP won one. In the state House of Assembly, the APC won three seats while the PDP also won three. Election was suspended in Etche over alleged irregularities.
The outcome of the election took a dramatic turn when an alleged audio tape, where Wike was reportedly heard threatening an official of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) over a deal to manipulate the election in a particular area, went viral in the social media. But the governor denied the audio tape, alleging that his voice was superimposed by the opposition party to score a cheap political point. Another video, where the commander of the Special Anti Robbery Squad in the state, Akin Fakorede, was brutalising a female electoral official, also went viral in the social media.
The Inspector General of Police Idris Muhammed has constituted an investigative panel to look into the outcome of the election as it concerns who did what. The panel, which has 30 days to submit its report, is mandated to engage forensic experts to analyze all the video clips that emanated from the election.
Wike and his party said they would not be involved in the investigation exercise, alleging that in this matter, the panel is the accuser and judge.
It is believed that the political battle between the governor and the minister would continue in 2017 as the two leaders are likely to approach various election petition tribunals to contest the outcome of the December 10 rerun election. The two political parties have refused to concede defeat in the areas they lost.
Sokoto
In Sokoto, politics has remained a one-way traffic of sorts. From 2007 till date, there has been political stability in the state as governors are known to always have their ways concerning who succeeds them. The current governor, Aminu Tambuwal, is a product of such development. It is believed that he came into the race at the behest of former Governor Aliyu Wamakko, even as one of the commissioners, who was keenly interested in the governorship position, was asked to step aside.
Against this background, it is believed that there would not be an upset against the former governor and the All Progressives Congress (APC), although political observers expect Tambuwal to create his own identity and turn the table in his favour. But others believe the politics of Sokoto is still in Wamakko’s firm grip; hence it may be difficult for Governor Tambuwal to carve a niche for himself and work at cross purposes.
It is strongly believed that Tambuwal has continued to lie low in order not to lose the support of his predecessor ahead of 2019. However, some political pundits wonder whether there would be the need for him to ride on the former governor’s shoulder, given his level of popularity in the state. The people are yet to understand the rationale behind his frequent journeys, particularly as they have not seen the dividends of such trips.
Also, the outcome of the case filed by Senator Umar Tambuwal, a governorship aspirant on the platform of the APC, challenging the eligibility of Governor Tambuwal in the 2015 election, may shape the 2017 political event in the state.
Furthermore, it is believed that Governor Tambuwal would lose Wamakko’s support if the allegation that he is not in a good relationship with leaders of his party turns out to be true. The governor has been accused of reneging on his promises, a development that may stand against his re-nomination, even if Wamakko approves it.
Bauchi
The lingering feud between Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar and lawmakers, which has dominated the Bauchi State political landscape since 2015, is expected to continue, unless something drastic is done. The crisis began almost immediately after the victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state, which replaced the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). There was a disagreement over some policies of the governor, which the lawmakers considered anti-people and a deviation from the party’s campaign promises. The disagreement later developed into a full blown political war between the governor and his supporters on one hand, and the lawmakers and their supporters on the other.
The lawmakers are allegedly led by the speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, Senators Ali Wakili, Isah Hamma Misau, Suleman Nazif and Hon Ahmed Yerima, the member representing Misau/Dambam federal constituency, who has been the most vocal critic of the governor. Yerima once accused Governor Abubakar of shutting out members who worked for the victory of the party during the elections while favouring those who joined when all the groundwork had been done. He also accused him of pursuing unpopular policies and condemned the workers verification exercise and the delay or non-payment of salaries and pensions, which he said had brought untold hardship on the people.
The governor and his supporters, on the other hand, derided the lawmakers over their alleged attempt to undermine the efforts of the state government, who they said came at a difficult time of reduced revenue and drastic decline in federal allocations.
A coalition of Buhari support groups also threatened to recall the senators and some members of the House of Representatives from Bauchi State over their support for Senate President Bukola Saraki and Speaker Yakubu Dogara.
The move was, however, seen by the lawmakers as an attempt by the governor to use the leadership of the party and other elements to get at them at all cost.
All efforts by the leadership of the APC and other stakeholders to bring the two warring sides to a negotiating table have failed. According to the leadership of the party, the lawmakers rebuffed various invitations sent to them.
The lawmakers, however, accused the party leadership of taking the side of the governor, alleging that they have perfected plans to replace them during the 2019 elections.
But the leadership of the party, in an advertorial in a national daily, denied the allegation, saying the purported document the lawmakers lay claim to, did not originate from the party. All the supposed signatories to the document, including the speaker of the State House of Assembly, Kawuwa Shehu Damina, also denied the allegation.
On the other hand, the governor’s camp also accused the lawmakers of plotting to unseat him and working with the opposition party to shop for another candidate for the position in 2019. The lawmakers also denied the allegation.
A visit to the national secretariat of the APC by concerned stakeholders in the state, to lodge a complaint against the governor, further aggravated the already tensed situation. The delegation, which included the minister of education, Mallam Adamu Adamu, accused the governor of fuelling the crisis and pocketing the state chapter of the party. The governor denied the allegation when he paid a similar visit to the party secretariat.
The governor also met with President Buhari at the State House where they reportedly discussed the issue.
Governor Abubakar had, at a press briefing, said that he once met with some of the lawmakers in Abuja before embarking on a foreign trip, but they went back to their stance before he came back.
The lawmakers have maintained that they are not opposing the governor because of 2019 elections but over some issues that need to be properly addressed.
Efforts to reconcile the two camps have, however, been intensified as some prominent traditional rulers and other stakeholders have been mandated to mediate in the feud.
It is expected that the crisis and reconciliation efforts would shape the political landscape in Bauchi State in 2017.
Also, the exit of the former governor of the state, Mallam Isa Yuguda, from the opposition PDP since May 2016, has already put the party in disarray. Already, there is infighting among some members of the party in the state, including its former chairman, Ahmed Adamu Mu’azu, the former minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Senator Bala Mohammed and others.
Some people have been insinuating that the former governor may join the APC, a move the party leadership in the state said won’t be possible.
Others believe that Yuguda was the main force behind the growing strength of the opposition New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in the state. The NNPP has already overtaken the PDP as a strong opposition party. The presence of some politicians believed to be staunch Yuguda’s allies has given credence to the belief that the former governor is behind the party and may eventually join.
However, Yuguda’s supporters said their principal had not made up his mind on his next political move.
Political observers believe that although the former governor has not joined any party, wherever he moves to would definitely have an impact on the political equation of the state.
Gombe
As 2017 begins, the long-awaited local government election is one of the major issues that will dominate Gombe State politics in the New Year.
Since he was sworn in for his second tenure 18 months ago, Governor Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo has been foot-dragging to conduct election into the 11 local government areas, a decision that did not go well with the opposition parties in the state.
In May 2016, four political parties – Peoples Democratic Change (PDC), Democratic Peoples Party (DPP), African Peoples Alliance (APPA) and the
Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), dragged the state governor, the Gombe State Independent Electoral Commission (GOSIEC) and the 11 caretaker chairmen of the local governments to court for failure to conduct the election.
Local government election was last conducted in the state in February 2013 after much pressure from the opposition parties. The ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had won the election in all the 11 local government areas.
The newly elected chairmen served for two years. And after their tenure elapsed in March 2015, they were appointed as caretaker committee chairmen to continue steering the affairs of the local government areas.
However, following the expiration of the constitutional six-month period in September 2015, Governor Dankwambo replaced them with another batch of politicians, who also took over as caretaker chairmen. They served for two tenures of six months each and were reappointed for another six months in September 2016. The new six months will expire in March 2017.
Political pundits in the state are of the opinion that the governor is foot-dragging to conduct the election because of the paucity of fund occasioned by the dwindling price of oil in the international market, a development that has affected federal monthly allocations to the state.
However, succumbing to pressure from oppositions parties, the GOSIEC, on November 28, announced a 90-day notice for the council election slated for February 25, 2017.
The chairman of the commission, Mr. Caleb Maina, said the delay in conducting the election was necessitated by financial constraint due to the current economic recession in the country.
“The GOSIEC could not hold the local government election as at when due because of financial constraint; hence the appointment of caretaker committees became the only option for the state government,” he said.
Prior to the announcement of the election date, some prominent members of the ruling PDP in the state had announced their defection to the major opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Political observers believe that both the governor and members of the opposition parties would use the election to test their popularity ahead of the 2019 general elections.
The opposition will try to wrest power from Governor Dankwambo while he would want to anoint a candidate from the PDP to succeed him.
Kano
One of the major political issues that may dominate the political space in Kano State this year is the persistent battle of supremacy between Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and his predecessor, Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso. It is either the two politicians reconcile or part ways completely.
The recent development at the APC’s North-West zonal meeting, held in Dutse, the capital of Jigawa State, where Alhaji Abdullahi Abbas, a factional chairman of the party and Ganduje’s loyalist, was affirmed as the authentic chairman, is another pointer that the political dispute between Ganduje and Kwankwaso will take a new dimension this year.
Daily Trust on Sunday observed that shortly after the Dutse meeting, the factional chairman of the party and a diehard supporter of Kwankwaso, Alhaji Haruna Umar Doguwa, went on air to dispute claims by some politicians that Abbas was confirmed the authentic chairman of the APC in Kano.
Abbas, who has not responded to Doguwa’s statement, has, however, been parading himself as the genuine chairman of the party in the state. The special adviser on political matters to Governor Ganduje has been receiving APC’s supporters at the party’s secretariat in the name of registering their allegiance to him.
It was observed that while Ganduje is struggling to take over the leadership of the party in the state, Kwankwaso, on the other hand, is said to have been shopping for a candidate that would challenge Ganduje’s second term bid come 2019. This is what brought the issue of the alleged alliance between Kwankwaso and Alhaji Slaihu Sagor Takai, the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state during the 2015 general elections.
However, it was gathered that while Kwankwaso is wooing Takai to challenge Ganduje’s second term bid, the latter, on the other hand, is said to have been making contacts with former education minister and Takai’s political mentor, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, to achieve his political desire in the next general elections.
Although none of the four politicians has so far made any statement regarding this political alliance, however, it has become an issue of debate, especially among local political analysts for some weeks now. However, the true position of things will soon unfold as political activities kick off by the second quarter of 2017.
Ekiti
No doubt, Ekiti State will attract political attention in 2017. Some of the issues likely to be in the political front burner are: the governorship election likely to come up in April 2018. Who succeeds Governor Ayodele Fayose? Would the governor dump the Peoples Democratic Party for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as is being rumoured? Would he contest senatorial election? There are other political questions begging for answers.
Governor Fayose, popularly called Oshokomole in the political arena, will complete his second term in October 2018, having served between 2003 and 2006, during which he was impeached by the state House of Assembly. But the Supreme Court ruled that the process leading to his impeachment was not known to law.
The governor has said at several fora that he would not impose anybody on the state; but many people are not taking him seriously. Some people are already of the view that the governor would install a successor who would do his bidding. Some names are already being mentioned, but none of them has publicly declared interest. They include the present deputy governor, Dr. Kolapo Olusola, whose loyalty the governor has commended. The governor may allow him to step into his shoes; the former minister of state for works, Prince Dayo Adeyeye; a former acting governor of the state, Rt. Hon. Tope Ademiluyi, and a former commissioner for works who resigned from Fayose’s cabinet, Mr. Kayode Oso. But Fayose is yet to pitch his tent with any of them.
Although Fayose has denied a media report that he is planning to dump the PDP for either the APC or any other party, speculation is rife that he might look elsewhere to achieve his political aim, especially considering the fact that Ekiti is the only state in the South-West geopolitical zone still under the grip of the opposition PDP. Ondo State was captured by APC’s Rotimi Akeredolu in the November 26 governorship election.
Fayose is said to be under pressure to quit the PDP, but he has maintained that he would repeat the same feat he recorded in 2014 when he defeated the incumbent governor, Kayode Fayemi of the APC.
Another issue that may take the centre stage in the state is the various legal issues hanging around the governor’s neck. But immunity clause, which he enjoys under the constitution, is making it impossible for the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to prosecute him. The commission has leveled corruption charges against the governor.
Imo
In Imo State, the non-payment of workers’ salaries and pensions of retirees will dominate discussion in 2017.
Retired workers in the state are owed 40 months pension arrears, running into billions of naira. These retired citizens have made several appeals and staged peaceful demonstrations to attract the attention of the state government, all to no avail. The situation has reportedly led to the death of some of the members of their union.
However, according a statement issued by the chief press secretary to Governor Rochas Okorocha, Sam Onwuemeodo, the state government has released the sum of N9billion to pay pensioners. He said pensioners from level one to seven would receive 100 per cent payment while those from grade level eight and above would be paid 40 per cent. But the leadership of the pensioners’ union has rejected this arrangement.
Also, the Imo State government has not been able to pay workers’ salaries up to date. This is likely to have a ripple effect in the New Year. Despite promises by Governor Okorocha to clear workers’ salaries, the reverse is the case. Government could only pay for one month.
Apart from the failure of the state government to pay up to date, for nearly one year, workers have been subjected to receiving between 50 per cent and 70 per cent salaries. This came into effect when the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) in the state and other labour unions entered into an agreement on the 70 per cent salaries for workers from the federal allocation accruing to the state, while 30 per cent is used in running the affairs of the state.
Apparently disturbed by this arrangement, the organised labour started kicking against it. This made the governor to come up with an upward review of the payment from 70 per cent to 80 per cent.
Earlier in a media chat, the governor had said the sum of N16.1billion was released to pay salary arrears. He explained that while N9b would go to pensioners, the remaining money would go to workers.
Again, the failure of the state government to conduct local government election is another issue that will dominate the political landscape in Imo. This has been generating condemnations from the people. Since inception, the present administration in the state has not conducted council election. What the people have witnessed is the appointment of caretaker or transition committee chairmen to man the affairs of the local councils.
Governor Okorocha had, on several media chats, blamed the inability of his administration to conduct council election on court cases, insisting that until the cases are over, council election will not be conducted in the state.
The former elected executive chairmen of the councils on the platform of the PDP during the last administration had dragged the governor to court, saying they were sacked illegally.
Lagos
In Lagos State, elections into the 20 local government councils (LGs) and 37 local development council areas (LCDAs) are expected to dominate the political landscape in 2017. The elections, long sought-after by the political parties, especially the opposition to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), have become a sore point since 2014 when the immediate past governor of the state, Mr. Babatunde Raji Fashola, instead of initiating new election processes to replace the last set of elected local government chairmen, chose to appoint caretaker committees, headed by chairmen, for the LGs and LCDAs.
The incumbent governor, Akinwunmi Ambode, has sustained that fashion, first appointing executive secretaries (ES) to replace the caretaker committee heads and recently sole administrators to replace the ES. For its action, the state government has found a reason in a legal battle that the National Conscience Party (NCP) initiated in 2015, challenging the appointment of caretaker committees. The NCP prayed the court to stop the federal government from continuing to disburse allocations to the councils managed by caretaker committees.
The NCP had won in court, but Lagos State immediately headed to the Appeal Court, where the case has lingered while elections have stalled.
Daily Trust on Sunday, however, reliably gathered from political leaders in the state that the LG elections would hold in 2017. The APC publicity secretary in the state, Mr. Joe Igbokwe, confirmed to our correspondent that all is set for the election to hold in the first half of the year. Already, posters of aspirants for the chairmanship and councillorship positions across the 57 councils and areas can be visibly seen all over the state.
Efforts last week by our correspondent to contact the publicity secretary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Mr. Taofeek Gani, were unsuccessful, but Gani had boasted in April 2016 of the party’s readiness to dust the ruling APC in the state whenever the elections were held.
“We are eager to replace the APC in the councils. APC is scared to conduct the polls. They continue to postpone their doomsday. Ambode is busy usurping the finances and administration of the councils. They are presently shamelessly rehabilitating roads in the councils which they claimed had been repaired since 1999. They are inflating contracts at the councils. They are doing all these to steal money for the polls,” the PDP spokesman alleged.
Gani and the PDP will need a lot more to do to convince the electorate in the state. Besides the fact that the APC controls all the democratic structures in the state, many residents in the state regard Governor Akinwunmi Ambode as immersing himself in infrastructural and youth development, sports and entertainment so much so that he has endeared himself to many irrespective of party affiliation. Even in the Lagos State House of Assembly where the PDP has eight members, opposition voice is virtually non-existent. Speaking to our correspondent, one of the PDP members in the House once praised Governor Ambode for what he called his sterling achievements.