FG-Boko Haram ceasefire announcement: Many questions, few answers

In the wake of the nationally traumatic Chibok schoolgirls’ abduction last April, President Jonathan said the Federal Government will not negotiate for their release but that it will continue with dialogue to seek an end to Boko Haram’s campaign of armed insurgency, bombing of cities, abduction of persons and indiscriminate killing of people in areas […]

In the wake of the nationally traumatic Chibok schoolgirls’ abduction last April, President Jonathan said the Federal Government will not negotiate for their release but that it will continue with dialogue to seek an end to Boko Haram’s campaign of armed insurgency, bombing of cities, abduction of persons and indiscriminate killing of people in areas overrun by it.
Boko Haram has cast a long shadow over preparations for next year’s elections with many people wondering if elections can be held in some areas, notably parts of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States. If not because last Saturday’s by election in Adamawa State was cancelled due to a court ruling, there was no certainty that polls could have opened in Madagali Local Government of the state.
Yesterday’s surprise announcement first by Chief of Defence Staff Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh and later by Coordinator of the National Information Centre [NIC] Mike Omeri said contacts have been made between government and Boko Haram representatives. The discussions, Omeri said, were “essentially in relation to general insecurity in the North East and also the need to rescue all captives of the terrorists including the students of Government Girls Secondary school, Chibok.” Boko Haram, he said, indicated its desire and willingness to discuss and resolve all associated issues and they assured that all the schoolgirls and other people in their custody are alive and well. Boko Haram, he said, declared a ceasefire so government also declared a ceasefire. Omeri’s statement said “the goal of this process is to ensure a return to normalcy in the land, especially in the North East.” He slipped in a propaganda line about “President Jonathan’s commitment to peace and security in Nigeria and indeed all parts of the world has been the driving force of all engagements and measures taken since the war on terror began in the country.”
How did the two sides arrive at this ceasefire deal? The president’s principal private secretary Hassan Tukur said last night that the secret talks took place in Chad and were mediated by the Chadian government. While leaders of the Chad Basin Commission [Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger Republic] plus Benin Republic were holding summit meetings and announcing legal protocols for the deployment of a multinational army to police all the borders, secret talks were going on in Ndjamena. From all indications, President Jonathan’s visit to Chad in August was a major step in this direction but the trip was overshadowed by controversy over the presence of former Borno State governor Ali Modu Sheriff in Jonathan’s delegation. Not many people thought the talks had any substance given the controversy that surrounded them.
What propelled the two sides to reach such a historic ceasefire deal? The Federal Government clearly preferred a military solution to the insurgency. However, after five years, trillions of naira sunk, heavy losses of life on all sides, much economic damage to the country and many embarrassing incidents ranging from the Chibok schoolgirls’ kidnap to the Ali Modu Sheriff affair and the recent seizure of a plane full of cash in South Africa, the government swallowed its pride and reluctantly came to the conclusion that some kind of a negotiated solution is needed. Besides, the election is approaching and President Jonathan has been delaying his declaration for a second term largely due to the Boko Haram problem. The government also wasted a lot of time chasing shadows, believing that its political opponents were behind the insurgency.
In recent weeks, government’s confidence was buoyed by some successes on the battle field, notably the military’s ability to repel four consecutive Boko Haram onslaughts on Konduga in Borno State. The army’s successful recapture of Bunu Yadi town in Yobe State as well as recent operations to clear the insurgents from towns in northern Adamawa State also boosted the government’s morale. It was beginning to look like the army has at least begun to turn the tide on Boko Haram.
Without a ceasefire and a peace deal down the line, the military might be able, with its recent acquisition of weapons, to liberate towns under Boko Haram control such as Bama and Gwoza and possibly to oust the group from its Sambisa Forest redoubt. But where will it all end? It is most unlikely that the army would be able to stamp out the sect completely. Even if Boko Haram’s main forces are destroyed, small bands of insurgents could still continue to terrorise the countryside for years to come. Its sleeping cells inside towns might also continue to explode bombs every now and then, hence the need for a negotiated settlement.
As for Boko Haram, the most likely reason why it agreed to come to the negotiating table is the military reverses that it suffered in recent weeks and the possibility that it could suffer even more reverses in the weeks to come. There were many accounts in recent weeks of wholesale defections by sect fighters in addition to the heavy losses it sustained in battles against the military. We cannot know for sure if Boko Haram’s bloodthirsty leader Shekau is actually dead but if indeed he was the one killed at Konduga, that may have paved the way for more moderate elements to take over the sect’s leadership and go for talks.
What are the terms of yesterday’s ceasefire? The government announcement did not say but a ceasefire usually means all forces maintain their current positions. Marshal Alex Badeh’s order to the service chiefs to ensure that all forces observe the ceasefire means no effort will be made to liberate those areas still under the sect’s control. This means that Boko Haram could continue to hold on to Bama, Gwoza and other places pending a final settlement. This is obviously embarrassing to the government because it amounts to a tacit recognition of an outlawed sect’s sovereignty over some parts of national territory. The hope is that it is temporary.
Will the ceasefire hold? The weary Nigerian military would gladly observe it, but would the sect do so? We do not as yet know the sect leaders that government has been negotiating with or whether those fellows actually have control over Boko Haram’s fighters. It is entirely likely that Boko Haram has split into factions and a moderate faction is the one that concluded this ceasefire deal, but we will see. Even if the men who negotiated the deal are the sect’s real leaders, it is not at all certain that Boko Haram has a single command and control system capable of telling all fighters to stop fighting. Given that they destroyed telecom masts wherever they operated, do they have the means to communicate a ceasefire order to their forces spread all over a vast area and deep into cities and towns?
Alhaji Hassan Tukur answered some of these questions yesterday when he said the Chinese and Cameroonians nationals released by Boko Haram last week was the first part of this deal and it proved that the men they were talking to were indeed the right commanders.   
What if someone breaches the ceasefire? A bomb attack on any part of Nigeria will certainly be seen by the military as a breach of the ceasefire deal but what if there is an attack on a rural community? The ways things are, roving bands of sect fighters attack rural and semi-urban communities mostly in search of food, though they sometimes do so for revenge reasons. Last night, hours after Boko Haram was said to have declared a ceasefire, there was an attack on Shapa village in Borno State.
A news item yesterday said talks between the two sides will continue next week. What could such talks entail? The government’s first goal will be the release of the Chibok girls. This will be a huge political boost to President Jonathan but for most Nigerians, it will also be the best signal that Boko Haram is indeed serious about reaching a final deal.
The Federal Government is unlikely to accept any final deal that entails loss of sovereignty over any territory or the continued existence of an armed Boko Haram group. Boko Haram must therefore accept to disarm and disband as part of any final deal. It is however likely to press for an amnesty for all its leaders and fighters. This will be a very bitter pill for the government to swallow, given the gravity of the outrages the sect committed in the last five years but in the end it might have to accept it. Whether such an amnesty will entail the release of all captured Boko Haram fighters, including those already convicted by the courts, remains to be seen. The sect members also once demanded compensation for their demolished mosques and for their extra-judicially killed leaders. They are likely to renew those demands. Government might also offer financial inducements in the name of rehabilitating the sect members.
One problem that government itself may not be able to solve is likely community response to the return of pardoned Boko Haram members. This is especially true in Borno where the Civilian JTF is very strong and it played an important role in bringing the sect to heel. To the extent that Civilian JTF members know almost all sect members, the latter’s ultimate return and reintegration back into the community will be a tricky affair. Government could grant amnesty but the danger is real that individuals and local communities could exact vengeance from Boko Haram men who were known to have killed their relatives, abducted their daughters, drafted their sons off to fight or otherwise raided their shops and markets.
If the talks that are said to continue from next week ultimately result in a final settlement between government and the sect, then this country’s single biggest problem, insecurity, would have been largely solved. It will create a very good atmosphere for the country to face the 2015 general elections and to attend to other debilitating national malaises such as power shortage, poor infrastructure and frequent strikes by workers in various sectors.