FG moves to increase OPEC quota to 2m barrels per day

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, has said Nigeria will demand a higher oil production quota at the next meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) scheduled for November. Lokpobiri disclosed this in a special bulletin published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), where he reviewed […]

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, has said Nigeria will demand a higher oil production quota at the next meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) scheduled for November.

Lokpobiri disclosed this in a special bulletin published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), where he reviewed Nigeria’s upstream oil performance four years after the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act and the establishment of the Commission.

He said the country’s current quota, pegged at about 1.5 million barrels per day, no longer reflects its true production capacity.

According to him, the upcoming OPEC meeting provides an opportunity for Nigeria to make a strong case for an upward review to at least two million barrels per day.

“The OPEC quota is subject to periodic review, and by November, when we attend the annual meeting, we will certainly be making a case for a higher quota for Nigeria. And I believe that there’s no better time than now for us to make a strong case for Nigeria’s quota to be reviewed to two million and above,” the minister said.

Daily Trust reports that Nigeria’s crude oil production has recorded significant increase in recent times, hovering around 1.7 mbpd.

But this is still short of the 2.2m barrel target by the federal government in the 2025 budget oil production parameter.

But the Minister expressed confidence that Nigeria’s improved output levels, strengthened infrastructure, and renewed investments in the upstream sector would support the country’s case for an increase.

Lokpobiri said the sustained recovery in production, improved regulatory environment, and fresh inflow of investment into the oil and gas sector have positioned Nigeria to make a strong case for a higher OPEC quota.

“When I became Minister, the OPEC quota for Nigeria was 1.5 million barrels per day because our production then was below that.

“Today, we are producing around 1.7 million barrels daily, including condensates, and we have the capacity to produce above two million barrels per day. It is time to review the quota upward,” he noted.

He explained that Nigeria’s actual output includes condensates, a lighter, higher-value form of crude not covered by OPEC’s production limits, adding that this gives the country flexibility without violating its quota.

“Condensate is not counted in OPEC production, yet it sells at a higher price,” he said. “If we do 1.5 million barrels of crude and one million barrels of condensate, we are still within the rules. And because we have capacity, we are also going to show that we have capacity. Right now, there is something going on to assess our capacity, and that assessment is currently going on. And we believe that we will show the world that we have the capacity to produce more than two million barrels.”

The minister added that verifiable production data, domestic crude supply obligations under the PIA, and evidence of renewed capacity would form part of Nigeria’s case at the OPEC meeting.

Lokpobiri attributed the production rebound to improved security and better pipeline integrity across the Niger Delta.

“Before now, companies were scared to produce because crude pumped into pipelines hardly got to the terminal,” he said. “Today, if you put in crude, you get 100 per cent at the export point.”

He said years of pipeline vandalism and oil theft had crippled Nigeria’s production capacity, but recent interventions by security agencies and community partnerships had reversed the trend.

According to him, Nigeria’s rig count, a key indicator of upstream activity, has jumped from about 14 to nearly 50 and is expected to rise further by year-end.

Lokpobiri also hailed the recent wave of divestments by oil majors such as Shell, TotalEnergies, and ExxonMobil, saying they had opened opportunities for capable Nigerian operators.

 

…Upstream regulations restoring investors’ confidence

 Speaking in the same vein during a visit by the NUPRC management as part of the four-year anniversary, the Minister stated that the narrative in the upstream oil and gas sector is restoring investors’ confidence in the petroleum industry.

He stated that the increase in rig count shows the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021, has revived interest in Nigeria.

In a statement by the NUPRC’s Head, Media and Strategic Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, Lokpobiri commended the Chief Executive of NUPRC, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, for outstanding leadership and effective delivery of his mandate as the commission marks its fourth anniversary.

Lokpobiri said, “Let me take the opportunity to congratulate you (Komolafe) and members of the team, for an excellent job over the last four years.  The NUPRC is just four years old, but it looks like a 50-year-old. I don’t flatter myself when I talk. A four-year-old child will be in kindergarten, but the NUPRC’s achievements are like a 50-year-old. Today, the confidence is back and investments are coming.”

On his part, Komolafe described the anniversary as a special moment in the history of the commission and added that the achievements recorded are a product of the support of President Bola Tinubu, as well as support from the Minister of State for Oil.

The NUPRC boss thanked the minister for his leadership and support in the regulatory activities of the Commission. He reiterated that as part of its mandate, the Commission has functioned as a business enabler and opportunity marketer in the upstream sector.

 

…How feasible is a 2m quota?

While Nigeria has continued to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5m barrels per day of crude oil, there are doubts over the 2m bpd amidst uncertainty and volatility in the market.

Daily Trust reports that Nigeria failed to meet the 2025 production target of 2.2m bpd as projected in the 2025 budget presented by President Bola Tinubu as revised last year.

While Nigeria has continued to meet its OPEC quota which it has achieved consistently this year, the organisation may be forced to slash the quota again if the country fails to achieve the quota.

Experts say the current quota is within reasonable production limits and there are doubts if the country can cope with an additional 500,000 bpd quota.

An industry player told our correspondent the move for upward review of the quota “may be to satisfy supplies to the Dangote Refinery and still have enough to sell.”

“Question is can we reach that level of production,” the expert added.

 

‘It’s worth pursuing’

However, Dr. Garuba Dauda, an oil and gas expert said, “For me, it is worth pursuing. What we should be asking ourselves is: are we able to sustain what we are asking for? A closer review shows that there has been relative stability in the Niger Delta.

“There have also been less reported cases of oil theft, although it may also have been driven underground.

“However, there are good reasons to get OPEC to effect an upward review of Nigeria’s oil production quota to enable the country reflate the economy. So much belt-tightening has happened to the citizens in the name of reforms since 2023.

“The people need to recover from the multi-dimensional devastations that have befallen them. Increased oil production quota may just be another opportunity to raise more money to be invested in the economy, while hoping that the common thieves in government will let it grow.”

 

…Nigeria on track to end gas flaring by 2030 – NUPRC

Meanwhile, the NUPRC has stated that the reduction of gas flaring will ensure the country meets its target of utilising all petroleum products produced by 2030.

Speaking during the International Conference on Hydrocarbon Science and Technology organised by the Petroleum Training Institute (PTI) the of NUPRC, the CE of NUPRC, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe said Nigeria’s hydrocarbon future should not merely be about how many barrels of oil  produced or how much gas can be monetised.

Komolafe who was represented by the commission’s Executive Commissioner, Corporate Services & Administration, Dr. Kelechi Onyekachi Ofoegbu, said it should be on how to  govern the resources in ways that build trust, attract sustainable investment, uplift the people, safeguard the environment, and secure our rightful place in the global shift toward sustainable energy.

He added that across flare sites in Nigeria, gas that once burned wastefully into the sky is now being positioned for full utilisation to power homes, drive small industries, and provide clean cooking energy for millions.

“Through the NUPRC’s flare gas commercialisation initiatives, the nation is making steady progress toward the Federal Government’s goal of achieving complete flare-out by 2030,” he added.

He added that despite Africa having over 125 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and more than 620 trillion cubic feet of gas and Nigeria bestowed with.37.28 billion barrels of oil and 210.54 trillion cubic feet of gas, yet more than 600 million people lack access to electricity.

“Why this contradiction? Obviously, it is not geology that failed us. It is governance, or rather, the lack of it. For decades, the promise of Africa’s vast resource wealth has been eroded by weak institutions, opaque practices, and missed opportunities.”

He however said a new dawn has emerged under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as Nigeria is charting a new course; one firmly anchored on integrity, transparency, and accountability.

“This renewed national vision of govemance built on trust, transparency and stewardship found its clearest expression in a defining moment for Nigeria’s oil and gas industry: the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act in 2021.”

The Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Petroleum, Dr. Emeka Vitalis Obi, said Nigeria remains an oil- and gas-rich nation with considerable opportunity to further leverage its hydrocarbon endowment for sustainable socio-economic development.

“Under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, the Government of the Federation reaffirmed the sovereign ownership of petroleum resources and set out to restructure the legal, regulatory, fiscal and institutional framework of the petroleum sector to make it more efficient, transparent and investment-friendly.”