For Jonathan and Atiku, the deciding moment

For Jonathan, the pro-zoning members of the party who believe he is muzzling his way into the contest by virtue of incumbency have gone to great lengths to scuttle his candidature. Not even the party’s declaration, opening its doors to all aspirants has doused their fire. He has survived two major court cases and a […]

For Jonathan, the pro-zoning members of the party who believe he is muzzling his way into the contest by virtue of incumbency have gone to great lengths to scuttle his candidature. Not even the party’s declaration, opening its doors to all aspirants has doused their fire. He has survived two major court cases and a bomb blast, even though there has not been a declaration that the October 1 bombing in Abuja has political undertone.

Atiku on the other hand has had to contend with virulent attacks that have questioned his credentials and his integrity as a politician. His decision to dump the PDP on which platform he was elected Vice president in 1999, to seek the 2007 presidency under the Action Congress has remained a bad patch in his political career. The Jonathan camp has not refrained from reminding the delegates of a man who jumped ship in the middle of the sail, only to come back seeking to drink from a well into which he once urinated. Even within the PDP, his eventual return to the party to seek the nation’s presidency after the bitter statements in 2007 is seen as an act of desperation.

The years of unprincipled prevarication have also taken their toll on Atiku who has lost hold of several arms of his support base including his home state, Adamawa. In the run-in to the Northern consensus decision by the Ciroma committee, his extensive political contacts were touted as his strength. Unfortunately, the famed Turaki structure has virtually collapsed while his posturing since the 2011 campaigns gained momentum depicts him as a man desperate to rule, even if he has to compromise on principles.

For Jonathan, whom many refer to as a political neophyte, he has been extremely lucky to have wriggled out of the thick circle of conspiracy against him, especially from a formidable clique in the North. For a man who started his political career as a deputy governor in Bayelsa State, his rise to the governorship of the state before becoming Vice president, and later President of Nigeria has been phenomenal. So also has been his increasing support across the country.

Since his open declaration for the presidential contest on September 18, 2010, he has received a gale of endorsements. From the East, West, North and South, governors, party officials and political leaders have endorsed his candidature, making him the frontrunner for the PDP ticket.

In the past month alone, he has secured the support of virtually every zone.

The governors of the North-Central geo-political zone, comprising of six states: Nasarawa, Plateau, Benue, Niger, Kwara and Kogi and their PDP delegates, unanimously adopted him. This was followed last month by 20 PDP governors and almost all PDP delegates in the North West zone. Barely 48 hours after that governors’ endorsement, about 75 of the PDP’s 85 senators indicated their readiness to support the president’s aspiration.

The leaders of the South-South region had opened the floodgates much earlier in August 2010 at the Stakeholder’s Forum convened by five PDP governors in Port-Harcourt, Rivers State, followed by the South- East and South West governors. For each endorsement, there are certain qualities and performance indices which the delegates point to. For instance the Imo State House of Assembly in resolving to adopt him as the PDP consensus candidate noted that President Jonathan has through exemplary conduct demonstrated profound leadership capacity, a striking degree of level headedness, and shown palpable acumen for tolerance and accommodation of diverse views and interests.

If the endorsements are anything to go by, Jonathan would appear to have far brighter chances of clinching the ticket than Atiku. The former Vice President has the brightest chance in the South East despite the endorsement given the Jonathan aspiration by Igbo socio-cultural group, Ohaneze Ndigbo. The chances for an Igbo presidency are brighter with the emergence of Atiku who has even buttressed it by promising to serve only one term. A few of Jonathan’s actions in the past 200 days would appear to connect well with certain sections of the Igbo populace. Three major issues would appear to have turned them around: the appointment of Major General Azubuike Ihejirika as Chief of Army Staff, the first of such position for Igbos since the end of the civil war, the strong promise of the second Niger bridge and the upgrading of Akanu Ibiam Airport, Enugu to international status. How much these cancel the Atiku joker of Igbo presidency will be known through the outcome of the primaries.

The South-South may be President Jonathan’s home, but his support and influence in the region is anything but strong. Support from the delegates and many of the governors cannot be guaranteed since their positions are only based on sentiments. Some few days ago, Atiku caused a stir within the Jonathan camp when he boasted in Port Harcourt that he had the entire 61% of the Northern votes in the kitty. He had asked Jonathan’s kinsmen not to waste their votes as the 39 % that would come from the south cannot fetch Jonathan the ticket.

In the Southwest where two of the six states are controlled by PDP governors, Atiku would also be confronted with his old nemesis, President Olusegun Obasanjo who has the support of the governors in the zone and some measure of control over the delegates from the zone.

The endorsements by PDP governors have narrowed Atiku’s chances in the North. In the North-East, for instance, his political dominance of the region is not guaranteed especially in Adamawa where it would be difficult to see Governor Murtala Nyako giving him full support.

The North Central appears a no-go-area for Atiku. The region has the most fanatical supporters of Jonathan. While Kwara would give its full support for Atiku, Niger delegates would be expected to vote according to the whims of the governor while the other States in the Middle Belt would largely swing towards Jonathan.

Falola wrote from Abuja