For Okonjo-Iweala, history beckons

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the finance minister, is vying to head the world’s apex bank alongside Jim Yong Kim, the president (Vice Chancellor) of Dartmouth College in New Hampshire, a medical doctor and reputed global expert on health matters. The other contestant, Jose Antonio Ocampo, a former finance minister of Colombia, ended his bid and rallied behind […]

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the finance minister, is vying to head the world’s apex bank alongside Jim Yong Kim, the president (Vice Chancellor) of Dartmouth College in New Hampshire, a medical doctor and reputed global expert on health matters. The other contestant, Jose Antonio Ocampo, a former finance minister of Colombia, ended his bid and rallied behind Okonjo-Iweala at the weekend.

This race is being closely watched because it represents the first proper merit-based contest for the top job since the Bank was established after World War II. Though Kim, the Korean-American medical doctor cum anthropologist, remains the odds-on favourite to win because he’s the United States candidate, the rest of the world is not convinced about his credentials for the position. The entrance of Okonjo-Iweala and Ocampo into the race has changed what is usually a US coronation into a fully-fledged battle of succession.

Thanks to an implicit agreement, the United States, the Bank’s biggest stakeholder, has always chosen World Bank’s leader with the support of Europe which in turn nominates the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Nowhere is it written that the United States must always produce the president of the world’s largest financial institution. Neither is there a rule that the United States and Europe shall forever succeed in determining who heads the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Against this backdrop, 39 former economists and managers of the Bank wrote in an open letter recently calling on the global institution to choose its next chief on merit. They further endorsed the candidature of the Nigerian finance minister, describing her as “eminently qualified” for the job.

“At a time like this, of momentous changes in the world, when the global economy remains fragile as the aftershocks of the financial crisis continue to reverberate, Okonjo-Iweala’s deep experience in international and national issues of economic management, including links to sectorial initiatives as well as her knowledge of the institution and how to increase its effectiveness would be invaluable assets,” intoned the World Bank former officials, who argued that a truly fair selection process will boost the Bank’s legitimacy and relevance.

Similarly, a global coalition of campaigners, namely, Eurodad, the Bretton Woods Project and Oxfam, who uniformly backed Okonjo-Iweala, had urged the World Bank to break with the past practise and select the best candidate, endorsed by the wider Bank membership and not just the United States.

However, the promise of a united front from emerging economies evaporated on Friday when Russia said it would support Kim, becoming the first major emerging economy to do so.

Indeed, with the unprecedented competition for the World Bank’s top job and the increasing demand from the developing world for an open, transparent, merit-based process, the Bank’s executive directors will be making an important choice at a crucial moment for the future of the global institution.

It would be recognized as a historical milestone if the 58-year-old Nigerian economist clinched the World Bank presidency. She will be the first African and also first woman to emerged as head of the global institution. It will also mean that two women, one from Europe – Christine Lagarde –  and another from Africa – Okonjo Iweala – are heading the two of the world’s mightiest institutions, the World Bank and IMF.

And, given the new variables, what chances has Okonjo-Iweala in upsetting the odds and breaking the American/European duopoly? Slim, but strong. Is it possible? Going by the voting strength of the Euro/American bloc and the unfathomable unwritten rules of the Bank, I would say, it probably isn’t – unless there is a paradigm shift.

Riding the crest of Africa and enjoying the unalloyed support of the emerging economies, Okonjo-Iweala, nevertheless, will have an outside chance of snatching it. Observers would always predict a very close race with top contender Dr. Kim, though. Being a former managing director and with the experience of working at all levels of the Bank’s hierarchy, she possessed lofty credentials that puts her in a better stead. But all that may count to nothing. In voting, the world powers will give little thought about her profound knowledge, her long experience with the Bank and her useful insights into the neo-capitalist system.  For the Rothschilds and Rockefellers of this world that doesn’t hold water. And suffice to say here that within the institution, there’s an entrenched interest which ought to be preserved and protected. Thus, in all of World Bank’s selection process, the president is chosen behind closed door.

Nigeria, the rest of Africa and the developing world will, however, anticipate a shift in the power equation but we all have to be reminded, in the euphoria of elections it’s easy to forget that the United States pursues its own agenda first.

Big expectations can result in disappointments, of course, and there is sure to be some of that tomorrow, no matter who wins the World Bank top job.