Four elections and their lessons

By virtue of the not less than 70 elections to be conducted this year, 2024 has been christened the “the year of elections”. Four elections were conducted recently which should resonate with, and interest, those who are passionate about exquisite elections and the consolidation of democracy. The elections of South Africa, France, Iran and Britain […]

By virtue of the not less than 70 elections to be conducted this year, 2024 has been christened the “the year of elections”.

Four elections were conducted recently which should resonate with, and interest, those who are passionate about exquisite elections and the consolidation of democracy. The elections of South Africa, France, Iran and Britain offer lessons which should instruct and guide avid students of the electoral process.

These elections were conducted on May 29th, June 28th, June 28th and 7th July, 2024 respectively. While two – those of South Africa and Iran – concern fledgling and young democracies, those of France and the United Kingdom involve countries that have evolved democratically.

Except the British election, in which the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, won a landslide, garnering 412 seats, and putting an end to a chaotic 14-year run by the Conservative Party, the other three were decided on the second round of balloting. The winners did not emerge or meet the threshold of 50 per cent in the first round of voting. The first set of elections were thus, in INECspeak, “inconclusive”.

In the general election held on May 29, the governing African National Congress (ANC) lost, outright, the parliamentary majority it had commanded since 1994 at the end of apartheid. Two former staunch members of the ANC, former President Jacob Zuma and Julius Malema, left to form their parties, the Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

In the first round, the ANC won 159 seats and scored 40.18 per cent of the votes. It lost support in the key metros of Tshwane (Pretoria), Johannesburg, Ekorhilem and eThekwini (Durban).

French President, Emmanuel Macron, had called a snap election on June 30, shortly after France’s far right had performed very well in the European Union (EU) parliamentary contest. The National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, made substantial gains by winning 50 seats more than it did in 2022. In the said election, the RN and its allies led with 33.21 per cent. It was followed by the New Popular Front (NPF) with 28.14 per cent and those allied with Ensemble with 21.28 per cent.

The second round of elections held on July 7 to elect 577 members of the National Assembly of the Fifth French Republic. It was an anti-Le Pen/National Rally movement. Unfortunately, it delivered a chaotic outcome and the prospect of a hung parliament. The NPF affiliated candidates won 182 seats; Ensemble won 168; the National Rally won 143 seats; while the Republicans (LR) took the rear with 45 seats.

The results represented a split in the French political spectrum. The 577 seats were divided amongst the left, center and right. Worse, none came close to a majority. To secure an outright majority, a party or coalition needs to secure 289 seats. Notes a member of the French parliament, Sylvain Maillard: “It’s not possible to govern France if you don’t have 240 to 250 lawmakers”.

The election in the Islamic Republic of Iran took place on June 28 following the death of its former President, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash on May 19, 2024. Four candidates contested the first round of the election. They are: Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist and three Conservatives: Saeed Jalili, Mohammad Bagher Gbalibaf and Mostafa Pourmohammad. They won 44 per cent, 40 per cent, 14 per cent and one per cent respectively.

In the second round, Pezeshkian, who has promised to reach out to the West and to ease the country’s mandatory enforcement of headscarf for women, won 55 per cent of the votes.

The UK election was a different but pretty kettle of fish. The Labour Party won an overwhelming majority. It trounced the Conservative Party on which watch there was high cost of living and a turnover of five Prime Ministers in 14 years. The Conservative Party won a niggardly 121 seats.

Except in Iran where a pro-Pezeshkian lawyer was reportedly beaten by security forces and two members of the security forces were killed in gun attacks while ferrying election boxes in Sistan and Baluchistan and in South Africa where the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) said two people were arrested for interfering with voting operations, all the elections were peaceful.

Voter turnout was considerable in all the elections. South Africa witnessed a voter turnout of 58.57 per cent. In the French election, the voter turnout for the first and second elections were 66.71 per cent and 66.63 per cent. Both are said to be the highest since 1997.

In the Iranian election, voter turnout for the first and second round of elections were: 39.93 per cent and 49.68 per cent. Britain recorded a voter turnout of 60 per cent. These are not the highest voter turnouts for these countries; but they shimmer when compared with Nigeria’s dismal turnout. Voter turnout in the 2023 Nigerian presidential election was a dismal 26.72 per cent. Out of 93.47 million registered voters, only 24.9 million voted.

Early elections took place in the British and South African elections. Three hundred Voting Stations were set up for Iranians who voted abroad. In the instance of South Africa, early voting, for overseas citizens, was held in South African diplomatic missions on 17th and 18th May. Also, early voting for domestic voters was held on 27th May, covering 1.6 million voters. This includes essential workers and about 624,000 other voters who were unable to leave their homes.

Voting in the second round of the poll in Iran was extended to midnight on Election Day. In the U.K., voting took place from 7.00am to 10.00pm. Voters exercised their franchise at their pace. And except for the pundits, who analysed the conduct of the election in the media, it was like any other ordinary day with people going about their businesses unperturbed.

Except in South Africa where Zuma contested the election in court, all defeated candidates conceded and congratulated the victors. All Election Management Bodies (EMBs), including the Ministry of Interior in the case of Iran, were adjudged to have conducted stellar, transparent and credible elections. South Africa’s dashboard was buoyed by a robust WiFi. Little wonder it performed with fidelity and there were no glitches. Results and updates were provided real time.

Most significantly, Keir Starmer named his cabinet and convened its first meeting in the first 24 hours after assuming office. This underpinned the urgency of the challenges his country faced and his resolve to address them. For good measure, he appointed top-notch technocrats to his cabinet. This is exemplified by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves. In Nigeria, it will take forever to constitute a cabinet. And at the end of the day, it will be a collection of clueless mediocres.

 

Nick Dazang is a former director at the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)