Four visions out of Borno
The rift that burst into the open last week between two leaders of the terrorist pseudo-religious Boko Haram sect at first gladdened the hearts of Nigerians. The prospect of a civil war breaking out between two Boko Haram factions, which could weaken both of them and accelerate their eradication by the Army, was initially pleasing. […]
The rift that burst into the open last week between two leaders of the terrorist pseudo-religious Boko Haram sect at first gladdened the hearts of Nigerians. The prospect of a civil war breaking out between two Boko Haram factions, which could weaken both of them and accelerate their eradication by the Army, was initially pleasing. However, hearing the nature of the “ideological differences” between the two rival leaders had a sobering effect on us all. Abu Musab Al-Barnawi, the new leader recognised by the Syria-based Islamic State [IS], is said to object to ousted leader Abubakar Shekau’s policy of bombing mosques. That sounds very good until you hear Al-Barnawi’s option. Mosques should not be bombed and Muslims should not be killed; only churches should be bombed and only non-Muslim “infidels” should be killed.
Even though Shekau sensationally pledged allegiance to IS last year, we do not as yet know how much control IS has over its so-called West Africa branch. From all indications Boko Haram is now bereft of much firepower, has been unable in recent years to rob banks, and there is no sign that the equally hard-pressed IS has sent fighters to assist it. All the sweeping military operations going on in the North East have not captured any Arab, Afghan or other non-African fighter or technical adviser to Boko Haram. Nor has the Army captured anything looking like a cache of new weapons, only rustic AK-47s and FN rifles earlier stolen from military barracks.
Hamza Idris’ excellent perspective report in Daily Trust last Saturday shed light on many issues not known to the public, such as Abu Musab Al-Barnawi being the biological son of the late Boko Haram founder Mohammed Yusuf; that he is a very young man in his early 20s and that the real leader of his IS-recognised faction is the internationally wanted terrorist Mamman Nur. Nur was founder of the deadly Ansaru that bombed Abuja’s UN building, attacked a military convoy in Kogi State and kidnapped foreigners in Bauchi and Katsina. Anyone who was initially excited to hear that Shekau had been ousted will pause and reflect at what Hamza said, that the leadership change represents a victory of Ansaru over Boko Haram.
Al-Barnawi’s softly-spoken but long and rambling audio-taped answer to Shekau’s rejection of his leadership listed a litany of cruelties and murders that he said the ousted Boko Haram leader committed over the years. He mentioned many fighters that he said Shekau tricked, tortured and killed. As far as the rest of us are concerned, those were the least of Shekau’s atrocities. Al-Barnawi did not consider wholesale attacks on Damaturu and Kano, bombing of mosques, churches, motor parks and luxurious buses or raiding hundreds of villages, looting their markets, killing all their young men and carting off their women into sex slavery as crimes.
Instead, he thinks Boko Haram should concentrate on the killing of “infidels” and the bombing of churches. In truth it did a lot of that, only to suddenly switch tactics at some point and redirect its attention to the storming of isolated mosques, exploding IEDs therein and shooting as many worshippers as it can. In a perverse way however, that change of targets and tactics saved Nigeria. Bombing churches almost every Sunday in a row, beginning with the murderous Christmas Day bombing at Madallah, was about the best way to capitalise on Nigeria’s inter-communal fault lines and cause a national split. Even though Nigeria’s Christian community on the whole exhibited great tolerance during the bombings, the strategy nearly succeeded and at one point led to “revenge” attacks in Kaduna State, in particular.
On the verge of success, Boko Haram changed focus. This reminded me of an account I once read about the 1940 Battle of Britain. With the Wehrmacht having overrun France, Belgium and Holland but unable to cross the English Channel to subdue Britain due to the Royal Navy’s superiority over the German Navy, Adolf Hitler tried instead to defeat Britain from the air. Everyday 1,000 German bombers attacked British airfields, war factories and communication centres but, on the verge of success, Luftwaffe commander Field Marshal Herman Goering changed tactics and began bombing cities in the hope that that will force the British government to surrender. According to the military historian William Shirer, that change of tactics saved Britain. In a perverse way, Boko Haram’s change of tactics from bombing churches to bombing mosques saved Nigeria because it removed the inter-communal element in the war. Imagine the danger therefore if Boko Haram has a new leader who prefers to attack Christian targets. Luckily, he no longer has much capacity to do so.
Which brings me to the third, more pleasing vision out of Borno. That Boko Haram has been reduced in the past year to small roving bands perpetually on the run from the Army’s “fighting patrols” and “clearance operations,” with much help from the Air Force and troops of neighbouring countries, is attributable to the largest extent on the coming of Lt General Tukur Yusuf Buratai. The change in tactics from waiting to repel Boko Haram attacks to one of pursuing insurgents all over the countryside and storming their strongholds has already established Buratai as the most successful Nigerian military commander since the Civil War.
Which was why a man like me, with an eye entirely fixed on results and practicalities, was dismayed by the coming of the Dubai houses affair. I personally wondered: why should anyone want to derail a man who is on the verge of solving Nigeria’s number one problem? Even our current pre-occupation with economic problems is because bombs are no longer going off in cities and vast sections of the country are not under terrorist occupation. That Shekau has been unable for months to post a video on You Tube taunting us and gloating about his exploits has removed a torment worse than petrol price hike, falling naira value and long hours of darkness rolled into one. Buratai didn’t do it alone but he is the main factor.
Buratai was careful to have listed his family’s ownership of shares in a Dubai property in his assets declaration forms. Otherwise it would have been an open and shut case of false assets declaration. With that narrow escape, the accusers now began to ask how a career soldier got the money to buy shares in the Dubai property. Is that how justice works, asking a person to explain how he got anything that he owns? If Buratai stole money at any point during his career, he should have been caught at that point or even afterwards. This charge is potent for President Buhari only because he historically provided the philosophical grounds for that line of inquiry. As military ruler, Buhari arrested former political office holders, made them to declare their assets, calculated the assets’ value, compared it to their salaries and asked them to explain how they got the balance. Buratai’s accusers are borrowing from Buhari’s former philosophy.
The final, this time very heart-warming vision that came out of Borno last week was Governor Kashim Shettima’s speech while inaugurating newly appointed Local Government caretaker committees. It was one of the most thoughtful speeches I have heard from a Nigerian ruler in recent years. Appointing caretaker committees to run local governments is itself not pleasing because it means the constitutional expectation of democratically elected local councils is not met. In the case of Borno however, the reason is obvious. The next best situation was the order handed down by Shettima, given the improved security situation, for the officials to operate from rebuilt secretariats in 24 out of 27 LGAs and for some LGs to maintain “satellite secretariats” in IDP camps in Maiduguri that host people from their local councils. They were also charged to take direct charge of IDP affairs with the help of state, federal and international agencies and to re-establish basic services. While still agonising over the competing murderous ideologies of Shekau and Al-Barnawi, this big stride towards re-establishing local authority in Borno delighted me no end.