Francois Hollande and the new dispensation
He became the presidential candidate for the Socialist Party only because the former IMF chairman, Dominique Strauss Khan, a presidential front- runner ruined his chances with a celebrated sexual scandal that not only cost him his post but has also continued to dog him relentlessly. Franchois Hollande was helped by a number of factors along […]
He became the presidential candidate for the Socialist Party only because the former IMF chairman, Dominique Strauss Khan, a presidential front- runner ruined his chances with a celebrated sexual scandal that not only cost him his post but has also continued to dog him relentlessly. Franchois Hollande was helped by a number of factors along the route to the presidency including the fact that Nicolas Sarkozy was not particularly liked in France. The French like their presidents to cultivate the air of a monarch, but in all of Sarkozy’s seven years at the Elysee Palace he was deemed to lack the regal touch hence unable to measure up to the demand. Prior to the run-off election, campaign of the major candidates lacked bold policy thrusts, but with a lead by Hollande after the first round, Nicolas Sarkozy lurched to the right in order to win back voters that had gone to the far right party of Ms Marie Le Pen. He promised that immigration laws would be further tightened through border control to keep Africans, Arabs and other races out of France and also impose restriction on their imports.
The gambit of espousing far right policy was his undoing because it showed him as xenophobic in the most multi-racial country in Europe, angering many well meaning French voters and prompted them to switch their votes to Hollande. The reality in France today is that in many cities in the South such as Marseilles, Arab and African population has outstripped Whites, it is conceivable therefore that there must have been a huge swing to the socialist party among these groups, helping its presidential candidate to maintain his fragile lead to victory. Francois Hollande, on his part busied himself with safe issues of social and economic policies such as reinstating social equity that had been eroded in France, promising to reduce budget deficit and promote growth as against austerity that was central to the Sarkozy’s programme. Boldly noting that he will task the rich more to finance his growth policy, Francois Hollandes promised to preserve the French social model even if it meant going against the European Union consensus of austerity policy as a way to stabilize their economies. The French social model is premised on a host of social welfare programmes that include unemployment benefits for those out of work, health benefits, old age pension and the whole lot. This alarmed the German leader, Angela Markel and caused her to openly cast her preference for Nicholas Sarkozy.
Francois Hollande has been brutally savaged by champions of austerity who say that France would surely follow Greece, Italy and now Spain into insolvency if he implements his ‘’tax and spend’’ policy and that a major bust up with Germany which occupies the front row with France in the effort to resuscitate Europe’s economy is imminent. They point to France’s high public debt which is still rising and its high unemployment rate which stands presently at 56% of the GDP and the fact that for 35 years now governments in France have not been able to achieve budget surplus- as reasons why another spending spree would throw France among the insolvent countries needing to be bailed out by the European Union. Most importantly, Francois Hollande was accused of not having a wealth creation programme.
The battle line is therefore drawn between which policy option would prevail:- austerity or growth to resuscitate the European economy. It is instructive that with all the austere doses Greece has been fed its economy rather than lifting has continued in its depressing prostrate state as its debts grow bigger and bigger resulting into more people becoming unemployed. Greece therefore is the reason why the austerity policy would have little support. Similarly, in the 1980s the IMF panacea of austerity policy ruined many economies in Africa; it not only halted the steady growth of Africa’s economies but it set them back several years. It will be interesting to see which policy would prevail as the Euro -zone grapples with its economy.
As is customary, on taking office Francois Hollande paid a visit to Angela Merkel, ostensible to assuage fears about France not playing its role in Europe as expected. The frenetic paced of his schedule soon after he assumed office ensured that he has had little time to warm up to the job. His visit to Germany was followed by another to Camp David, the holiday resort of United States’ presidents where the G.8 nations deliberated on withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. During his campaign he had set a 2012 date for taking out French troops from Afghanistan, since there is agreement generally on troop withdrawal there should be little dispute on it. But same cannot be said with the timing of withdrawal as NATO would want a programmed and organized, as opposed to a disorderly troop withdrawal that would smack of a disheveled retreat as if undertaken as a result of defeat.
Under Francois Hollande, the French would continue to support its former colonies in Africa with aids in education, health etc. During periods of left leaning presidents, the French are more accommodative and tolerant of l’estrangee-other races, and that is the time when more people want to visit France. In years past France had frowned at overthrowing legally constituted governments through force in its former colonies, it had deployed superior force to quell such illegal usurpation of power. It encouraged stable democratic governments in the French speaking countries in Africa. Perhaps because of the coming of age of ECOWAS – the supranational body, it decided to let Africans sort out its problem. Hence, though it intervened in Cote D’ivoire, principally to evacuate French nationals and keep the peace when Gbagbo refused to leave office after losing to Allassane Quatarra, it nonetheless remained aloof to events in Mali where a senseless coup has plunged that country into chaos.
Nicholas Sarkozy came across as duplicitous, when he took money from late Muammar Ghadaffi, according to a claim, to prosecute the 2007 election that brought him to power, but still went ahead to lead the military onslaught to weaken the former Libyan strongman leading to his eventual overthrow by the regime ruling over Libya now. It is hoped Francois Hollande would get his moral and ethical bearings right in his dealing with Africa.