Fuel crisis deepens as US–Iran Tensions push Nigerians to brink

By Olaoluwa Vincent Ajayi Nigerians are facing a worsening cost-of-living crisis as rising fuel prices, driven by tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran, continue to strain households and businesses across the country. Within weeks, petrol prices rose by about 39.5 per cent, one of the sharpest increases globally. Across major cities including Lagos, […]

By Olaoluwa Vincent Ajayi

Nigerians are facing a worsening cost-of-living crisis as rising fuel prices, driven by tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran, continue to strain households and businesses across the country. Within weeks, petrol prices rose by about 39.5 per cent, one of the sharpest increases globally.

Across major cities including Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt, the impact is immediate. Transport costs have surged, food prices are climbing, and daily expenses are becoming harder to manage. What once seemed like a distant geopolitical conflict is now shaping everyday life in Nigeria.

The crisis began in late February 2026, when tensions between the US and Iran disrupted global oil supply routes. On February 28, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile sites and military infrastructure. The escalation pushed global crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, raising fears over supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route.

For Nigeria, the consequences have been swift. Despite being a major oil producer, the country still depends on imported refined fuel, even as the Dangote refinery dominates domestic refining capacity.

With the removal of fuel subsidies and the adoption of a market-driven pricing system, domestic petrol prices now respond directly to global oil movements, leaving consumers exposed to international shocks.

Within weeks, pump prices jumped from about ₦995 per litre in late February to over ₦1,300 by mid-March, an increase of nearly 40 per cent. In March alone, prices were adjusted multiple times, with several hikes recorded within a single week.

Retail prices rose sharply across the country. On March 7, petrol sold for about ₦995 per litre. By March 9, it had climbed to around ₦1,175. A day later, prices rose again to about ₦1,230 in Lagos and over ₦1,260 in Abuja. Further increases followed on March 14, March 21 and March 22, when prices reached about ₦1,332 per litre. By the end of the month, petrol was selling between ₦1,300 and ₦1,350 nationwide.

The ripple effects are being felt across all sectors.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, inflation stands at 15.06 per cent, with rising transport and food costs placing additional pressure on household incomes. Analysts warn that continued increases in fuel prices could push inflation even higher in the coming months. Higher fuel costs have also forced transport operators to increase fares, leaving commuters to bear the burden.

“We are buying fuel at high prices, so we must adjust,” said Ibrahim Sani, a bus driver in Abuja. “Passengers complain, but we are also struggling. At the end of the day, there is little or no profit.”

From Lagos to Maiduguri, the effects are widespread.

In Lagos, commuters now spend a significant portion of their income on transport.
“I spend almost half my salary just getting to work,” said Chidinma Okeke, a bank employee. “Everything is becoming too expensive.”

In Abuja, taxi driver Musa Abdullahi said rising fuel costs have eroded his earnings.
“Fuel takes almost everything,” he said. “Sometimes I go home with nothing.”

Markets are also under pressure. Traders say the cost of transporting goods has driven up prices of staple foods such as rice, beans and garri.

“Every week, prices go up,” said Ngozi Okafor, a trader in Lagos. “Customers are buying less because they don’t have money.”

In Kano, trader Aisha Bello said customers now buy in smaller quantities or leave without purchasing.
“People just manage what they can afford,” she said.

Families are making painful adjustments. In Ibadan, Ibrahim Lawal said his household has reduced meals.
“We used to eat three times a day. Now it is twice, sometimes once,” he said.

Small businesses are also struggling. With unreliable electricity supply, many depend on fuel-powered generators.

In Port Harcourt, hairdresser Blessing Eze said rising fuel costs have forced her to cut working hours.
“If I run my generator all day, I won’t make profit,” she said. “Sometimes I close early.”

Economists say the situation reflects a broader economic cycle, where higher fuel prices drive up transport, food and production costs.

“Fuel price increases affect every sector,” said economist Tunde Balogun. “It creates a chain reaction that is difficult to control.”

The Federal Government has defended its policies. A spokesperson for the Nigerian National Petroleum Company said price adjustments reflect global market realities and the need to sustain supply.

However, opposition parties and labour groups have raised concerns. The Nigeria Labour Congress warned that rising fuel prices are worsening hardship and called for urgent measures to ease the burden on workers.

With no sign of easing tensions in the Middle East, analysts warn that fuel prices could rise further, deepening inflation and economic pressure.

For many Nigerians, survival is no longer about planning for the future but coping with the rising cost of each day.