GDP report shows economy not improving – Expert

An economist, Mr Andrew Uviase, says the recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report shows that Nigeria’s economy is not improving as it should. In the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Q3:2023 GDP report shows a 2.5% year-on-year improvement. Uviase, who is the Managing Partner at Ecovis OUC, a leading tax, […]

An economist, Mr Andrew Uviase, says the recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report shows that Nigeria’s economy is not improving as it should.

In the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Q3:2023 GDP report shows a 2.5% year-on-year improvement.

Uviase, who is the Managing Partner at Ecovis OUC, a leading tax, accounting and audit consulting firm, expressed worry over the parallel growth rates of the Nigerian population (2.5%) and the real GDP (2.5%), emphasising that this signals a stagnating economy.

“The Nigerian population growth rate is 2.5%, while the GDP growth rate in real times is also 2.5%. This is very worrisome, and it’s a clear signal that the economy is stagnating. When the real GDP growth is compared with the changes in the age distribution of the population and the age of our decaying infrastructure, we can better imagine the level of deterioration that the present results portend for the well-being of our citizens,” he said.

Highlighting major areas of concern, Uviase underlined the decline in the real sector of agriculture and industrial sectors’ contributions to GDP, while the services sector is on the rise.

He advocated for a more transparent approach to GDP reporting, suggesting that nominal and real GDP figures should be presented in the analysis for easy comparison between periods.

“The nominal GDP for the third quarter is N60.65 trillion, as against N52.25 trillion in the third quarter of 2022. We are rightly told that the growth represents 16.08% nominal GDP growth in the two periods. Our statistician says that the real GDP in Q3 is N19.889 trillion, while the corresponding figure for 2022 is N19.294 trillion. It is doubtful if the real GDP in 2023 is correct. Given the shocks and inflationary pressure that we have experienced in Q3 of 2023, the real GDP should be about half of the N19.294 trillion. I believe that the figures ought to be more realistic so that policymakers can use them properly,” he added.