Geopolitical tensions, reform fatigue major economic risks in 2026 – Report
The experts at the financial and economic intelligence platform, Proshare, have identified five primary risks to achieving the 2026 economic outlook in Nigeria. The industry analysts pointed out that external commodity and capital flow shocks, tax reform, insecurity, pre-election year fiscal pressures among others constitute risks to the 2026 forecast baseline. This was contained in […]
The experts at the financial and economic intelligence platform, Proshare, have identified five primary risks to achieving the 2026 economic outlook in Nigeria.
The industry analysts pointed out that external commodity and capital flow shocks, tax reform, insecurity, pre-election year fiscal pressures among others constitute risks to the 2026 forecast baseline.
This was contained in the EA – Proshare Country Watch Nigeria 2026 Edition report, jointly produced by Economic Associates (EA) and Proshare Nigeria Limited (PNL).
According to the report, Nigeria remains exposed to geopolitical disruptions and shift in global commodity prices particularly crude oil, and capital flow reversals triggered by US Federal Reserve policy changes or escalating trade conflicts could constrain FX Inflows and pressure reserve adequacy.
The experts also identified reform sustainability risk, noting that “the recovery remains contingent on continued implementation of market-oriented reforms.”
“Policy reversals, reform fatigue, or inconsistent signalling by fiscal or monetary authorities could derail consolidation and undermine forecast assumptions,” the report indicated.
The industry analysts also said persistent security challenges in food-producing and resource regions continue to constrain agricultural output, logistics efficiency and investor confidence in productive-sector investments.
“Nigeria’s electoral cycle presents meaningful fiscal risk. The deficit-to-revenue ratio could worsen as political spending intensifies.
“In the 2022 pre-election year, the deficit-to-revenue ratio rose to 197% from 150% in 2021. A recurrence would exert pressure on monetary policy accommodation and reserve drawdowns,” the experts said.
The report also expressed concern over what it termed tax reform and revenue strategy risk.
“A shift toward higher taxation rather than capital gains generation from asset optimisation could weaken investor confidence and depress domestic demand,” it added.
The report advocated for value unlocking through the listing of government owned enterprises on the Nigerian Exchange, rather than new tax impositions.
“Nigeria’s macroeconomic transition from a period of compounding distortions to observable stabilisation and growth acceleration represents one of the most consequential structural shifts in the country’s recent economic history.
“The EA-Proshare Country Watch Nigeria 2026 Edition provides the institutional analytical infrastructure to assess that transition with rig our, objectivity, and forward-looking precision.
“The 2026 forecast outlook is conditioned on sustain ed reform implementation, continued reserve adequacy, and contained pre-election fiscal pressures. Within these conditions, the evidence supports a constructive macro posture for institutional exposure to Nigerian markets, with appropriate attention to the identified risk categories,” the report added.