Grammys 2020: Who will win the big categories – and who should

Billie Eilish and Lizzo are competing for a string of the top prizes, but could Ariana Grande, Lana Del Rey and Rosalía cause upsets? Noise threatens to drown out the music at the 2020 Grammy awards. A line had been drawn under the tone-deaf leadership of Neil Portnow, who had presided over the ceremony since […]

Billie Eilish and Lizzo are competing for a string of the top prizes, but could Ariana Grande, Lana Del Rey and Rosalía cause upsets?

Noise threatens to drown out the music at the 2020 Grammy awards. A line had been drawn under the tone-deaf leadership of Neil Portnow, who had presided over the ceremony since 2002 – between 2013 and 2018, Grammy winners were 91% male, but, after a 2018 ceremony where men swept the board again, Portnow said it was on women to “step up” and create opportunities for themselves.

A woman, Deborah Dugan, replaced him; a taskforce was appointed, and in December they published their report, calling for greater diversity in the Academy voters. Any hopes that they had moved on, though, were scotched last week by Dugan being suspended for alleged misconduct; Dugan countered by saying she had been sexually harassed, that the Academy had covered up an alleged rape by Portnow, and that the voting was corrupt.

So we go into this year’s ceremony more jaded than ever, but the irony is that, no matter how poisonous the Academy is and regardless of whether it is rigged or not, we ended up with a much more diverse range of nominees this year. Leading the pack are Lizzo with eight noms and Billie Eilish and Lil Nas X with six each – a vibrantly youthful and non-conformist trio. But will the Academy members shake off the past and vote for the future?

Record of the year

Bon Iver – Hey, Ma

Billie Eilish – Bad Guy

Ariana Grande – 7 Rings

HER – Hard Place

Khalid – Talk

Lil Nas X ft Billy Ray Cyrus – Old Town Road

Lizzo – Truth Hurts

Post Malone & Swae Lee – Sunflower

 

Aside from the merely pleasant HER and Khalid tracks, this is a strong field. While lots of eyes are on Lizzo and Eilish, this could perhaps be Ariana Grande’s year. It’s her first time with nominations in the big four categories rather than being patronised in the pop awards and, with its My Favourite Things melody, doddering Academy voters might listen to 7 Rings and say: ‘Hey, it’s one I know!’ Triumphant earworm Old Town Road is the longest-running No 1 in US history; Bad Guy is a showcase of the kind of fiendish genius usually employed by Hollywood horror movies to construct elaborate ways for teenagers to get killed. But an Academy eager to telegraph its modernity might go for Lizzo: Truth Hurts is a great underdog story, reaching No 1 two years after release, and her charisma is near universally infectious.

Will win: Lizzo – Truth Hurts

Should win: Billie Eilish – Bad Guy

Album of the year

Bon Iver – i, i

Lana Del Rey – Norman Fucking Rockwell!

Billie Eilish – When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?

Ariana Grande – Thank U, Next

HER – I Used to Know Her

Lil Nas X – 7

Lizzo – Cuz I Love You (Deluxe)

Vampire Weekend – Father of the Bride

 

This is Grande’s best chance of a big win. Thank U, Next is a superbly realised almost-concept album about heartache, grief and moving on that can be witty, even caustic, but never cruel – it sealed her as one of the three or four definitive pop stars of our time. Lizzo, HER and Lil Nas X are hampered with too much 6/10 material across their albums; Lana Del Rey was the critical hit of the year and will certainly beat out fellow Pitchfork darlings Bon Iver and Vampire Weekend, but may not cut through to the more august and mainstream Academy members. Eilish was the inescapable pop-cultural breakthrough of the year, and her album has such terrific range and invention. She will, hopefully, squeak this.

Will win: Billie Eilish

Should win: Billie Eilish

Song of the year

Lady Gaga – Always Remember Us This Way

Billie Eilish – Bad Guy

Tanya Tucker – Bring My Flowers Now

HER – Hard Place

Taylor Swift – Lover

Lana Del Rey – Norman Fucking Rockwell

Lewis Capaldi – Someone You Loved

Lizzo – Truth Hurts

 

Many voters’ hearts will go with Nipsey Hussle, whose murder last year robbed the world of a skilful, soulful MC who united backpacker hip-hoppers and mainstream rap fans. Racks in the Middle also features Roddy Rich, who has broken through spectacularly over the last year. But the track pales next to two others here: DaBaby’s Suge is a slowly prowling piece of minimalism that makes Offset sound fussily overworked in comparison; it’s ridiculous that DaBaby isn’t up for best new artist. He is rather damaged goods after a series of run-ins with the law, however. That could hand Middle Child the win, on which J Cole raps as if he’s high-stepping across the surface of a lake, his triplet time full of balletic grace.

Will win: J Cole

Should win: DaBaby

Country solo performance

Tyler Childers – All Your’n

Ashley McBryde – Girl Goin’ Nowhere

Willie Nelson – Ride Me Back Home

Blake Shelton – God’s Country

Tanya Tucker – Bring My Flowers Now

 

If you scoff at country, you’ll probably always scoff at country, but this spread of songs shows off the admirable breadth of the genre and may pique your interest yet. Willie Nelson’s song is a bit something-and-nothing; Tanya Tucker’s Bring My Flowers Now is nominated in the song of the year category, and its live-for-today message and simple piano backing will appeal across the Academy, but it’s rather workmanlike. Ashley McBryde outdoes her in the ballad stakes, but it’s Tyler Childers and Blake Shelton – both strongly channelling the gospel and soul music that not so secretly underpins country – who are the strongest here. Childers’ song would make for a classy first wedding dance, while Shelton’s stirring ode to proud Christian labour, while deeply unfashionable, will have you gazing soulfully across a cornfield.

Will win: Tanya Tucker

Should win: Tyler Childers