Guber polls: States where there may be upsets
They had hoped for an easy ride in the forthcoming general elections in April. Almost all the first-timers among the incumbent governors secured the tickets to fly their parties’ flags at the April elections and the second-timers had their anointed ones endorsed to take over from them during the primaries. The last ritual for the […]
They had hoped for an easy ride in the forthcoming general elections in April. Almost all the first-timers among the incumbent governors secured the tickets to fly their parties’ flags at the April elections and the second-timers had their anointed ones endorsed to take over from them during the primaries. The last ritual for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors was performed at the Eagle Square, Abuja on January 13, when all of them except four delivered their states to incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.
However, events preceding the primaries show that the battles for the number one seats in the states have just begun. Signs that incumbent PDP governors who were returned during the last governorship primaries of the party and the anointed ones will have it rough during the coming elections have started to rear heads. The intra-party squabbles which almost undid the party prior to the primaries are getting serious. It however became clearer with the spontaneous reactions that trailed the presidential primaries of the party in some states within the North. Since then, the political momentum has been increasing by the day with the incumbents losing sleep over the growing influence and popularity of some opposition candidates and analysts predicting fierce contests in most of the states.
The PDP is the ruling party in Nigeria and controls 27 of the 36 states. As the party in power, their governors – most of whom are aspirants in the impending contest – enjoy some advantages conferred by incumbency. In the North-Central, the party controls all the six states that make up the zone. All the incumbent governors in the zone scaled the primary except in Kogi where Ibrahim Idris is serving his second term. All the governors except Babangida Aliyu of Niger State had endorsed President Jonathan in negation of the zoning agreement on ground. This gesture and power of incumbency may improve their chances in the coming election.
In Nasarawa State, which is also the zone’s headquarters for the Jonathan/Sambo campaign, the impending contest between incumbent Governor Aliyu Akwe Doma of the PDP and Congress for Progressive Change’s (CPC) Tanko Al-Makura is, from all indications going to be fierce with analysts predicting major upset in a free and fair atmosphere. Al-Makura seems undaunted by what observers believe are ongoing attempts to muzzle him, with his campaign activities severally halted by security operatives. Musa Illu Mohammed, Director-General of Al-Makura’s campaign, was arrested and arraigned in court after a whole weekend of detention at the state CID for allegedly defacing billboards of PDP’s Governor Doma. Before then, two of Al-Makura’s associates in Wamba were arrested and detained for three days by the police in Lafia after the governorship candidate flagged off his community project in that area. Then came his arrest on the order of IGP Hafiz Ringim. He is being investigated for alleged involvement in the protests that marred the visit of President Jonathan to Lafia during the flag-off of his North-Central campaign rally there.
Pundits believe that with sympathy from the people of the state over the intimidation by the state and federal governments as well as the alleged non-performance by the incumbent, Al-Makura may create major upsets during the April polls.
In Kogi State, the intra-party dust raised from the primaries where Governor Ibrahim Idris’s anointed, Alhaji Jibrin Isah Echocho emerged winner according to analysts, will affect the PDP’s fortunes in the coming election unless the ongoing reconciliation of the aggrieved by the party works out well. Then Kwara State’s PDP intra-party crisis, which led to the defection of the godfather of Kwara politics, Dr. Olusola Sarki and his camp, is also said to be likely to affect the party in the coming elections.
Other locations where there will be major battles in April are the North-Eastern states of Bauchi, Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Gombe and Taraba. In Bauchi, for instance, the state will be a battle ground of sorts. Although Governor Isah Yuguda is the coordinator of the Jonathan/Sambo campaign in the North-East, he has not been able to make significant impact in the party he defected to from the ANPP. The last primaries conducted in the state have left the party in fractions with many leading contenders like Senator Suleiman Nafiz Gamawa defecting to the ANPP to contest against him. The incumbent also has Senator Baba Tela of the Action Congress of Nigeria and Yusuf Maitama Tugar of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) to contend with.
Yobe State has been a traditional ANPP state for a while, but as things stand, the battle is going be a big one against the PDP if the current impasse between Senator Usman Albishir and former Minister of Police Affairs, Alhaji Adamu Maina Waziri is resolved. For now the state has the most rancorous standing because the PDP’s umbrella is being threatened by internal wrangling which become more evident after its gubernatorial primary election which produced Albishir as the flag-bearer. Observers say the troubles in the Yobe PDP have greatly enhanced the chances of the ANPP, which has affirmed Governor Ibrahim Gaidam as its lone candidate. Another weakness is that some of the electorate would like to try another political party after 12 years of the ANPP rule.
Then along comes Borno State: The political temperature there is on the rise as events leading to the primaries of various political parties fighting for the most coveted seat in the state have shown. Candidates such as Mustapha Baba Shehuri of the CPC; Alhaji Mohammed Goni of the PDP and ANPP’s Kashim Shettima are the main contenders. Shehuri has been at the House of Representatives under the platform of the ANPP since 2003 before he defected to the CPC. Observers say his strength lies in his generosity especially to young people and his relationship with General Buhari while his shortcomings, according to them is that he has distanced himself from elders. Goni’s emergence was equally enmeshed in crises, distrust and wrangling among contestants. The primary election was rescheduled almost three times before it was finally held. For now, it is very hazy to predict the chances of the PDP which has been the opposition party since 1999 even though Goni’s emergence has spurred confidence in the party members. Shettima is the second person to emerge the candidate of ANPP in the build up to the forthcoming election. The first candidate Modu Fannami Gubio was killed few days after his emergence. His strength is the appeal he has among the ANPP family and to certain extent his generosity.
In Adamawa State, the battle has been on between former vice president Atiku Abubakar’s camp and those of the incumbent governor, Murtala Nyako. However, the outcome of the last primaries in the state and the convention at the centre tend to draw the ire of other PDP stakeholders against the incumbent. Leading figures, such as Professor Jibril Aminu, are rallying to wrestle power from Nyako in April. His major opponent in the impending battle is former Nigerian High Commissioner to South Africa, retired Brigadier-General Buba Marwa who is said to be enjoying the support of all forces against the governor.
In the North West, six of the seven states that made up the zone are PDP-controled, so pundits are of the opinion that the power of incumbency will be at play. Major upsets are expected in Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi states where the presidency may most likely turn a blind eye. In Kebbi, from the prevailing political situation in the state, the political contest promises to be a keen contest among the three major political parties – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the state. With the way things are at present, it will be difficult to predict what would be the outcome of the gubernatorial election in Kebbi given the parties that are involved in the elections and popularity of their candidates.
In Zamfara, like Kebbi, the political atmosphere is increasingly becoming tense with pockets of upheavals between supporters of the two strong contending parties, ANPP and PDP. Of course, there are five candidates on the ground from different political parties seeking the governorship position namely Alhaji Sani Abdullahi Shinkafi for APGA, Alhaji Surajo Abdullahi Sarki for ACN, Alhaji Abdulaziz Yari for ANPP, Alhaji Mukhtar Mohammed Lugga for CPC and the incumbent governor Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi for PDP. However, from all indications the real contest is between the incumbent and the ANPP candidate.
Unlike the three states above, the governors of Katsina, Jigawa and Kaduna States are strong allies of President Jonathan and their support ensured his emergence in the presidential primaries. It goes to show therefore that the trio will naturally enjoy the unalloyed support of the party at the centre and the presidency in particular. However, feelers from those states indicate that the contest will also be hot. In Katsina, for instance, the race is narrowed down between incumbent governor Ibrahim Shema and few opposition political parties that appear determined to wrestle out power from the PDP. In Kaduna, apart from incumbent governor Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa of the PDP, 11 other candidates are battling to enter the Sir Kashim Ibrahim House. The candidates are Jimmy Nabaida Dung of the National Transformation Party (NTP), David Ahmadu Audu of National Solidarity Democratic Party (NSDP), Isa Adamu Abdullahi of National Conscience Party (NCP), Barrister Bello M. Magaji of Labour Party, Senator Muktar Ahmed Mohammed Aruwa of All Nigerian Peoples’ Party (ANPP) and Bala Mohammed Yunusa of African Democratic Congress (ADC). Others include Sani Mohammed Sha’aban of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Abdulkadir Balarabe Musa of Peoples’ Redemption Party (PRP), Abdul Ahmed Ishaq of the Social Democratic Mega Party (SDMP), Haruna Sa’eed Kajuru of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and Mohammed Sagir Auwal of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). However of all the candidates, four stand tall. They are Yakowa; Balarabe Musa; Haruna Saeed and Senator Aruwa. Yakowa, is said to enjoy the support of the powers-that-be in the state.
In Jigawa State, opposition against Governor Sule Lamido’s second term bid is second to none nationwide. As far as the battle for the state’s top most position is concerned, seven aspirants have so far indicated interest. Out of the lot, the most popular among them are Governor Sule Lamido of the PDP, Alhaji Muhammad Badaru Abubakar of the ACN, Alhaji Farouq Adamu Aliyu of the CPC and Alhaji Ibrahim Hassan Hadejia of the ANPP. The strongest of the forces angling to sweep the governor away is that of the former governor, Senator Saminu Turaki. If feelers from the state are anything to go by, the incumbent will have a tough during the April polls.
In behemoth-state Kano, as things stand today, among the candidates for the governorship election in the state come April 2011, the odds favour the most unlikely candidate, Alhaji Salisu Sagir Takai of the All Nigerian Peoples Part(ANPP). It is not that he possesses superlative credentials; it is just that among the political parties that have fielded candidates for the election, it is only the ANPP that remains largely crisis-free. With the incumbency factor at play, it will be a Herculean task to beat the ANPP government that has been in power for the past eight years in Kano. The PDP and CPC are the parties that ordinarily should give the ANPP a run for their money, but it seems their other name is crisis. The CPC, which most observers thought was the party to beat because of the personality of General Muhammadu Buhari and his massive following in Kano, has been mired in serious crisis.
Whatever the outcome come April, the aforementioned states will certainly provide some of the most significant upsets in their respective political status quo.