How APC presidential aspirants stand in some states

Buhari has been the only opposition presidential candidate with the largest votes haul within the shortest time when he single-handedly formed the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) after falling out with the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) elements. He contested the presidency on the platform of the CPC and got over 12 million votes within […]

Buhari has been the only opposition presidential candidate with the largest votes haul within the shortest time when he single-handedly formed the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) after falling out with the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) elements. He contested the presidency on the platform of the CPC and got over 12 million votes within a space of only nine months.
With the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC), his popularity seems to have doubled especially among the political heavyweights.
It is also believed that Buhari’s popularity in the South West has risen significantly with the rumoured support of former Lagos State governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu and other APC chieftains in the South West. This support, according to observers, will have a great impact on the electoral fortunes of Gen Buhari, which may give him an edge over the other presidential aspirants of the party.
The contest is widely seen to be between the former vice president, Atiku Abubakar who is regarded as a master political strategist and Buhari. Abubakar, a defector to the APC, may not enjoy the kind of established support that Buhari has within the APC, but he is a smart politician who understands the tricks well to upstage any of his opponents. He works more silently and in personal touch with every delegate across the state than on the pages of newspapers.  Abubakar is tipped to control most votes from the South-East and could share the spoils in other states across the country. Many political analysts have said they would not be surprised if the former Vice President emerges the APC presidential candidate.
Chief Rochas Okorocha may, of the five APC presidential aspirants, be the ‘home boy’ in Plateau state having had his education and first break in business in Jos and still maintaining a home and a long chain of investments there, but he remains an outsider in calculations for votes from the state’s delegates in the party’s presidential primary scheduled for Wednesday, December 10, 2014.
Okorocha is not known to have visited Jos to woo delegates over his aspiration, and if he has campaign posters anywhere in Plateau state, they must be in some of the remotest parts. For short, he is hardly in contention with Plateau delegates.
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will be next to Okorocha in terms of physical presence in Jos. He has a twin-structure home in elite Rayfield, a home which was renovated weeks before he paid a visit to Jos last week to canvass support from Plateau APC delegates for his ambition. When he received delegates there, he publicly announced donations of N60,000 each to them, N1 million to elders of the party and N5 million to the state chapter of the party.
Atiku has a prominent ally in Ambassador Yahaya Kwande, a respected elder statesman who rings a loud bell across Plateau State and has the Plateau APC virtually in his pocket. The party state chairman, Latep Dabang has already announced publicly that the Plateau APC was for Atiku.
Buhari has no known home in Plateau, but he visits the state quite often. Although he has not been to any part of the state for the specific reason of his current aspiration, his established image speaks for him and many Plateau delegates are said to have resolved to vote for him no matter what motivation they may have received from any other aspirant or aspirants.
Both Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Abraham Nda-Isaiah have trickles of supporters in the state, but the force is not reckoned with as capable of translating to meaningful votes for them at the primary. So, the delegates votes from Plateau State are likely to be shared between Atiku and Buhari, more for Atiku if his generous dispensation towards them endures, or for Buhari if his far-famed reputation holds out for him on the d-day.
In Nasarawa state, Governor Umaru Tanko Al-Makura remains loyal to Gen Buhari on whose wings he defeated his predecessor, the PDP governor, Aliyu Akwe Doma, to win the Nasarawa Government House seat in 2011. Governor Al-Makura has a lot of work to do, though, to win the state’s delegates for his favoured aspirant.
Some of Al-Makura’s associates, including Senator Abdullahi Adamu (APC, Nasarawa-West) are, however, supporting Engr. Kwankwaso, who is enjoying widespread popularity in the state. Senator Adamu, the only APC senator from Nasarawa state has apparently not forgiven Gen Buhari who locked him up, together with some other politicians of the second republic, after the former military head of state toppled the Shehu Shahari-led civilian administration.
Sunday Trust survey across Nasarawa showed Atiku Abubakar is not strong in the state. That is not ruling him out of contention there, though, as Abubakar’s strategy of working covertly with delegates may be his shock package at the primary.  
It is in Bauchi state that the speculation is strong that Atiku Abubakar will command majority support from the delegates, courtesy the romance that is believed to be existing between him and the state’s APC governorship candidate, Barrister Mohammed Abubakar. Though the governorship candidate has not openly identified with any of the aspirants, many people observed that prominent supporters of his campaign team were Atiku’s campaign officials. Down to the grassroots, however, majority of APC supporters in Bauchi are rooting for Buhari.
There is little doubt that Rivers State governor, Chibuike Amaechi and all APC delegates from the state will vote for Gen Buhari during the APC presidential primaries. Amaechi’s love and support for Buhari is not a hidden secret. He believes that Buhari is a highly disciplined person with an impeccable character and should be entrusted with the leadership of Nigeria. His body language all the time shows he is in support of the former head of State.
There are also clear indications that delegates from Borno State would give preference to Gen Buhari. This is evident in the body language, utterances and dispositions of Governor Kashim Shettima; his deputy, Zanna Umar Mustapha and most politicians in the state.
Voters in Maiduguri have always shown sympathy for Buhari, as evident in the votes he garnered there in the 2011 and 2007 elections. Already, posters and banners of Buhari for President, Shettima for Governor and Mustapha as deputy of the APC are a common sight on major roads in Maiduguri.
The situation is the same in Yobe state where Buhari has always won with a landslide in previous elections. Both Borno and Yobe have been opposition states since the advent of this democratic dispensation.
The APC National Secretary, Alhaji Mai Mala Buni said Yobe delegates would give equal opportunity to all the aspirants during the various primaries. Whatever this means, Buni didn’t explain.
In Niger state, signs of what could be the swing of the delegates’ votes at the presidential primary became glaring during the last governorship primary election in Minna as the delegates were chanting a slogan, “Niger state is for Abubakar Sani Bello (the APC governorship candidate), while Nigeria is for Buhari.”
The presence of an indigene of the state, Sam Nda-Isaiah in the presidential race has not affected the rising popularity of Buhari, though Sani Bello himself has not publicly taken sides with any of the presidential aspirants.
The emergence of former Speaker of the House of Representatives Aminu Masari as the governorship candidate of the APC in Katsina state may have boosted Gen Buhari’s chances in the primary. The state chapter of the party has since endorsed Buhari as its sole candidate for the primary, with the state chairman Mustapha Inuwa declaring at a congress that the party was solidly behind the general aspiration, who they saw as Buhari.
The party even resolved to purchase the party’s Expression of Interest and nomination forms for Buhari, with about N280,000 immediately raised at the meeting for the purpose. In Kebbi state, Sen Atiku Bagudu, who recently defected to the APC and is tipped as automatic guber flag bearer of the APC is likely to have identified with Gen Buhari, sources in the party told our reporter.
The APC leader in Kwara state Dr. Bukola Saraki and Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed are still leaving many people guessing about the direction they are likely to go. They have tactically refrained from endorsing any of the aspirants or shown preference for one against another.
When contacted, the Senior Special Assistant to Governor Ahmed on Media, Dr. Muideen Akorede told our correspondent that the state has not taken a decision on who to vote for among the aspirants.
In Gombe state, Alhaji Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya who emerged as the APC governorship candidate is believed to be loyal to Senator Muhammad Danjuma Goje who himself is believed to belong to Buhari’s camp. Yahaya’s emergence and Goje’s support for Buhari could, it is calculated, give Buhari about 70 per cent of Gombe’s delegates’ votes.
But some political analysts are of the opinion that if the religious sentiment comes into play at the primary, delegates from Gombe south may not vote for Buhari since most of them are Christians. There is nothing to show, however, which would rule the head of the delegates more   –   certain sentiments or sheer unwavering principles.