How Buhari, Jonathan will fare in Lagos

Due to the strategic position which Lagos occupies regarding the nation’s economy and the high number of votes, both parties have devoted much time to woo Lagosians.Earlier last week, the APC and PDP separately staged mega campaign rallies with the TAN/PDP rally taking place at the National Stadium while the APC staged its own at […]

Due to the strategic position which Lagos occupies regarding the nation’s economy and the high number of votes, both parties have devoted much time to woo Lagosians.
Earlier last week, the APC and PDP separately staged mega campaign rallies with the TAN/PDP rally taking place at the National Stadium while the APC staged its own at Alimosho, both targeted at the over four million residents that will participate in choosing the next president for the country.
In recent weeks, the presidential candidate of the  two leading political parties, President Goodluck Jonathan of PDP and  General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) of the APC have met several groups of people, associations, churches, traditional rulers, the youths, businessmen and women in Lagos to ‘sell’ the programmes they intend to pursue if they win.
President Jonathan had made frantic efforts to woo Lagosians through his physical presence in Lagos, including alleged sharing of hard currencies. The president also wooed both factions of the Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) led by Dr. Frederick Fasheun and Gani Adams by offering them contract worth several millions of naira to protect petroleum pipelines from vandals.
But many have faulted the manner the PDP presidential candidate is going about his campaign, saying President Jonathan and his party have failed to convince Lagosians on what his administration achieved between 2011 and today to enable them evaluate his performance.
“Instead, the president embarked on various political gimmicks that did not appeal to Lagosians,” a resident told our correspondent.
An analyst said the people of Lagos would have loved to hear President Jonathan talk about what he has done for the state and what other new things he would do for the state.
He said the president  however, through his party, embarked on discrediting leaders of the main opposition party, playing ethnic and religious cards and attempted to ‘buy’ people’s conscience.
He said residents of Lagos are enlightend and know that the PDP presidential candidate did not address issues about his achievement in office and particularly, what his government has done for Lagos to warrant casting their vote for him once again.
During one of President Jonathan’s meetings with various groups and associations  at the State House, Marina, Jonathan charged leaders of PDP in the state including  the governorship candidate, Mr. Jimmy Agbaje, on the need to wrest Lagos State from APC.
Many say the president’s decision to make Senator Musiliu Obanikoro a minister which made the latter to withdraw his case against PDP after he tactically lost the party’s governorship  primaries to Agbaje is a big miscalculation that will backfire for President Jonathan during the polls.
Obanikoro has been known to be arch ‘enemy’ of the strong men of PDP in Lagos – Chief Bode George and  Chief Adeseye Ogunlewe.
Factions in the party have been working independently of the other to the extent that President Jonathan had to come down to Lagos and co-ordinate PDP’s consultations and negotiations with groups and associations towards winning Lagos.
Buhari on the other hand has been enjoying high level of support in Lagos.
APC national leader Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Governor Babatunde Fashola have campaigned vigorously unlike before to ensure Lagosians embrace Buhari.
The APC went to an extent of organising a special campaign rally for the Igbo people in Lagos at Onikan Stadium Lagos, and another special campaign rally for the Hausa/Fulani in the state at Agege stadium which General Buhari attended physically.
The tempo of Buhari’s followership is high because APC’s control of political structures in the state is massive, from the metropolis to the 57 council areas. This gives APC an unparalleled ability to turn out high number of votes for General Buhari and other APC candidates for the National Assembly.
Our correspondent observed that the way the chances of both candidates stand now, there are Lagosians who are ready to come out on Saturday and vote just because of the APC presidential candidate.
The response given by some respondents to the question “Who among the presidential candidate would you vote for?” Was that their lives and living since 2011 when Jonathan was voted into power has not changed any bit.
Some respondents argued that it is time for a change of leadership at the centre, pointing out that the country is faced with numerous problems of economy, finance, security, power and corruption which President Jonathan has failed to tackle because the government lacks political will to deal with the cankerworm.
Analysts say Buhari has an upper hand in Lagos than President Jonathan if the APC structure in the state and the population of the Hausa/Fulani in Lagos are anything to go by. An ordinary resident of Lagos, who hails from the North, will quickly tell whoever cares to listen that Buhari is the answer to Nigeria’s current challenges. It is common to see people shouting, “Sai Baba” “Changee  d’ole ” in Lagos.
The influence of Tinubu and his political structure in Lagos is also working for Buhari. Tinubu has become a phenomenon to the extent that when the Bode George, Chief Ayo Adebanjo and Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State gathered at Airport Hotel last week for a faction of Yoruba Elder’s Summit, they agreed that without bringing Asiwaju to his knees, it would be difficult to wrest Lagos from APC.
Governor Fashola’s achievements in office has also brought Lagos to the limelight and this has been used effectively at campaigns for rapid transformation to be replicated in other parts of the country.
President Jonathan also has supporters but not many residents have been bold enough to campaign for him in the public except the factional leader of OPC, who pledged to give the president six million votes from the South-West zone.
Unlike in 2011, when there was a mutual agreement between President Jonathan and Asiwaju Tinubu; an agreement that made Asiwaju work for Jonathan through his  political structure, the presidential election in Lagos this time promises to be different.
By the time all of the above are placed side by side with the unending crises that have rocked Lagos PDP for years and is still lingering, Buhari seems more likely to win in Lagos State.