How Ekiti gov’ship, by-elections tested opposition parties

From Raphael Ogbonnaiye (Ado-Ekiti), Musa Luka Musa (Abuja) & Abubakar Abdullahi (Lafia)   The last Saturday governorship election in Ekiti State and the by-elections held in eight various constituencies across the country have served to assess the potentials of political parties in 2027. While the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the governorship ticket and seven […]

From Raphael Ogbonnaiye (Ado-Ekiti), Musa Luka Musa (Abuja) & Abubakar Abdullahi (Lafia)

 

The last Saturday governorship election in Ekiti State and the by-elections held in eight various constituencies across the country have served to assess the potentials of political parties in 2027.

While the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the governorship ticket and seven of the constituencies contested, the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) won one.

To many who were hoping to use the elections to assess the level of preparedness of the opposition parties threatening to displace the ruling party at the presidency, the states and in both the national and state assemblies, this came as a shock.

Parties like the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), the PDP, Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and the Allied Peoples Movement, had all raised hopes that the fear of one-party state initially expressed lack and the opposition had been revived.

But analysts suggest that many factors led to their performance during the elections that were not their making. They said some of the parties were recently registered and that the by-elections held in states that were largely under the influence of the ruling party.

 

Ekiti: How APC governor won a consecutive second term

That no incumbent governor has ever won re-election since the creation of Ekiti State in 1996 has added a different dimension to the recently concluded election in the state.

An analysis of the election history in the state has shown that from the first civilian governor, Otunba Adeniyi Adebayo to Ayodele Fayose, Segun Oni, an engineer, and Dr Kayode Fayemi, the bid to continue was hindered.

Fayose and Fayemi got their second terms after being sent out of the Government House for a period of time.

Analysts said one factor that may have given the governor a lead is the incumbency factor as he is believed to have done well in the area of road construction.

Ahead of the election, he was able to bring all past leaders and governors in the state to his camp.

Among several prominent political leaders that helped Oyebanji’s victory include Otunba Adebayo, Fayemi, Fayose, Chief Wole Olanipekun and Chief Afe Babalola.

Many, however, said the opposition aided the return of the governor as they came into the election divided and weak.

The media aide to the PDP candidate, Mr Gani Salua, however, blamed the defeat of his party’s candidate to lack of a level playing field.

Salua said the ruling APC was allegedly given preference during the collection of voter cards.

The acting secretary, African Democratic Congress in the state, Mr Jackson Adebayo, said the election was a charade and lacked all the ingredients of democracy.

Commenting on Oyebanji’s victory, the publicity secretary of the APC in Ekiti, Mr Segun Dipe, disagreed with the opposition, saying the victory was well earned and deserved, explaining that the party prepared for it, ‘coupled with the good work and performance of Governor Oyebanji in the state.’

 

Weak opposition aided ruling party in Kano

A former chief of staff to the APC national chairman, Mustapha Bala Dawaki, who contested the House of Representatives seat for Dawakin Kudu/Warawa federal constituency of Kano State on the platform of the NDC also lost.

Insiders said internal crises and missed deadlines prevented the PDP and the NDC from submitting valid nominations, while ADC’s weak organisational presence in Kano left it unable to mobilise for a sudden contest.

Also, many opposition leaders believe that by-elections are almost always walkovers for the ruling party. With APC firmly entrenched in Kano, they argue that the contest would be tilted against them, and that the ruling party would deploy its incumbency advantage and possibly manipulate the process to secure victory.

As a result, instead of expending resources for the election, which winner will be in the seat for only one year or even less, they chose to conserve their energy for the 2027 general elections, where the stakes are higher and the playing field broader.

 

Ondo: Major opposition parties absent

The victory of the APC candidate, Dr Dayo Faduyile in the Ondo South senatorial district by-election on June 20 was necessitated by the appointment of the former senator representing the district, Jimoh Ibrahim as Nigeria’s permanent representative to the United Nations.

Results of the elections released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) indicated that Faduyile of the APC polled 68,474 votes to defeat his closest rival, Adeolu Akinwumi of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), who secured 1,411 votes. Other candidates recorded marginal votes, with Olaoluwa Adesanya of the Action Peoples Party (APP) polling 213 votes and Funso Clement of the Boot Party (BP) garnering 70 votes.

Out of 672,302 registered voters, only 70,811 were accredited, highlighting the low turnout that characterised the election.

Our correspondent reports that the absence of strong opposition parties like the PDP and the ADC smoothened the path for the APC to have a field day.

With the PDP and ADC missing from the ballot, the contest featured mostly smaller parties with limited structures and reach across the six local government areas of the district.

The APM candidate, Adeolu Akinwumi said his part gave a good fight though it lost the race.

 

Nasarawa North: Mistrust among opposition candidates helped APC

The outcome of the recent Nasarawa North senatorial by-election has reignited debate among politicians and residents on the recurring failure of opposition parties in Nasarawa State. Judging by the state’s electoral history, the loss suffered by opposition candidates was not an isolated incident but the result of deep-seated grievances, mistrust and strategic miscalculations that have trailed the opposition for over a decade.

The by-election featured a crowded field of opposition contenders: former Information minister, Labaran Maku of the Labour Party; 2023 Peoples Democratic Party governorship candidate, David Emmanuel Ombugadu; Alaku Mohammed Steve Ahmed of the Action Democratic Congress; Duba Ishaya Dodo of the New Democratic Congress; and John Paul Araneshri of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). All of them lost to the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Danladi Halilu Envulanza, who won with a wide margin.

Unlike other opposition candidates, Maku raised alarm before the poll. He alleged that the state government and the APC had perfected plans to rig the outcome. The allegations came even as cracks within the opposition were already glaring. After the results were declared, both Maku and Ombugadu rejected the outcome, citing irregularities and accusing each other’s camps of compromise. Their grievances, however, mask a more fundamental problem that has haunted Nasarawa’s opposition since 2011.

Weekend Trust recalls that virtually all the candidates who contested the by-election were once members of one political family, the PDP. Internal friction that rocked the party over the years forced a mass exodus. Some defected to the APC, others to LP, ADC and NNPP, while a few remained in the PDP. The by-election, therefore, became a contest of former allies who had become rivals, each carrying old wounds into a new battle.

Our correspondent reports that what transpired in the by-election was a case of opposition challenging opposition as Maku, Ombugadu and other candidates spent considerable energy attacking one another, trading accusations and questioning each other’s credibility.

Maku and Ombugadu alleged rigging, but also pointed fingers at each other’s campaigns over poor coordination and suspected sabotage.

 

Lack of cohesion weakened opposition against APC – Analyst

A political analyst, Professor Sale Dauda, has said that Nigeria’s opposition parties are unlikely to pose a serious challenge to the ruling All Progressives Congress in the 2027 general elections unless they overcome internal divisions and present a united front.

The analyst said the outcome of the recent by-elections underscored the opposition’s inability to make significant electoral gains, attributing the situation largely to fragmentation among the parties.

He said the opposition remained divided across different political platforms, making it difficult to mount a formidable challenge against the APC.

“When you have the opposition split into different parties, it will be difficult for them to defeat the ruling party. The recent election clearly shows that it will be a herculean task for them to defeat the APC,” he added.

The analyst also expressed concern over what he described as the presence of “moles” within opposition parties allegedly working in the interest of the ruling party.

Drawing a comparison with the United States, he argued that politicians in established democracies generally remain loyal to their parties, unlike the situation in Nigeria where cross-party allegiances are common.

Looking ahead to the 2027 elections, the analyst said the opposition’s chances of unseating the APC remained slim unless key opposition figures shelve their individual ambitions and rally behind a single presidential candidate.

“I wish people like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso would come together in one party and agree on a common candidate. That would probably pose a serious challenge to the APC.

“But as long as they are prepared to go their separate ways, they will not be able to defeat the APC,” he said.

On what the opposition must do differently, the analyst said unity remained the most critical requirement.

“If they want to defeat the APC they have to be united and field a common candidate,” he said.