How Kano’s political intrigues are shaping 2027 election landscape

Kano, Nigeria’s political nerve centre, remains a hotbed of political manoeuvring as the state’s two dominant parties—the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP)—grapple with internal crises that could shape the 2027 elections.   Unlike in many states where political tensions subside after elections, Kano’s landscape remains perpetually charged, with shifting […]

Kano, Nigeria’s political nerve centre, remains a hotbed of political manoeuvring as the state’s two dominant parties—the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP)—grapple with internal crises that could shape the 2027 elections.

 

Unlike in many states where political tensions subside after elections, Kano’s landscape remains perpetually charged, with shifting alliances and power struggles defining its political identity.

The ongoing turmoil within both the APC and NNPP is fuelling speculations about how the state’s political dynamics will evolve ahead of the next general elections.

 

APC’s internal struggles and the fight for supremacy

At the heart of the APC’s internal strife is the growing tension between the party’s National Chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and Deputy Senate President, Barau I. Jibrin. Ganduje, a veteran politician and former Kano governor, is fighting to maintain his political stronghold. Jibrin, whose influence has grown significantly, is widely believed to be positioning himself for the 2027 governorship race.

Though Jibrin has not publicly declared his intentions, his political moves, including strategic engagements across Kano, indicate a calculated effort to solidify his standing. This perceived ambition has unsettled Ganduje’s camp, triggering a silent contest for control within the APC.

Barau Jibrin’s growing influence has become a major talking point in Kano politics. His ability to extend his reach beyond Kano North, his senatorial district, and engage with a broader audience suggests he is carefully crafting a governorship bid. His empowerment programs and political activities have been interpreted as moves to strengthen his appeal, even as he refrains from making any official declaration.

However, his growing presence has unsettled Ganduje’s loyalists, who are wary of the possibility that his ascendancy could push them into political irrelevance. A top Ganduje ally, who preferred anonymity, stated, “Barau is making strategic moves, but he should remember that politics in Kano is not just about visibility; it’s about control. He still has a long way to go if he wants to challenge Ganduje’s influence.”

Despite Barau’s rising profile, the faction of former APC governorship candidate Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna and his running mate, Murtala Sule Garo, remains a formidable force within the party. Backed by Ganduje, this group still holds significant sway. However, Ganduje’s future remains uncertain, as his influence could wane once his tenure as APC chairman ends. But with a vote of confidence passed on him at the party’s National Executive Council meeting on Wednesday, which means he would remain in the saddle till 2026 at the first instance, his next political move could determine the fate of many APC stakeholders in Kano.

However, a growing faction within the party, believed to be aligned with Jibrin, has started challenging Ganduje’s dominance. This was evident when Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development, Yusuf Abdullahi Ata, questioned the APC’s leadership in Kano. The current leadership under the chairmanship of Abdullahi Abbas was installed and remained loyal to Ganduje.

Thus, remarks of Ata, a known ally of Jibrin, have been widely interpreted as a challenge to Ganduje’s authority.

“The APC must undergo serious restructuring in Kano if we want to regain power in 2027,” Ata said. “There are internal issues that need to be resolved, and no individual should feel he owns the party.”

Ganduje’s recent visit to Kano, where he attended political events including an empowerment program organised by Barau Jibrin, was seen to have added another layer of intrigue. This is because his perceived allies, Gawuna and Garo, were notably absent, leading to widespread speculation about shifting alliances within the APC.

Their silence and conspicuous absence from major political events in Kano have raised questions about their position in the unfolding drama. Some political observers believe their absence is a tactical move as they assess their options in an increasingly fragmented party.

A source within the party noted, “The absence of Gawuna and Garo at these events was deliberate. They are waiting to see how things unfold before making their next political move.”

This development, the source noted, emphasises the fluid nature of Kano’s political landscape, where alliances can shift rapidly as politicians reposition themselves ahead of major elections.

But the growing rift within the party has also drawn concerns from party stalwarts like Baffa Babba Dan’agundi, an ally of Ganduje. He warned that continued infighting could cost the party dearly in 2027. He emphasised the need for unity and discipline among party members, cautioning that failure to resolve internal disputes could lead to another electoral defeat.

He stated, “We have seen what internal divisions can do to a party. If the APC fails to put its house in order, it will be difficult to reclaim Kano in 2027. The opposition is watching, and they will capitalise on any weakness.”

His call for restraint was also extended to APC supporters on social media, urging them to focus on promoting the party’s policies rather than engaging in divisive rhetoric.

 

NNPP’s infighting and the threat of defections

While the APC struggles with internal divisions, the NNPP is also battling its own crises. The party’s recent decision to suspend Senator Kawu Sumaila and three other federal lawmakers over alleged anti-party activities has exposed deep fractures within its ranks.

The lawmakers were accused of secretly aligning with the APC, leading to speculation that their loyalty to the NNPP has always been questionable. Their suspension has intensified fears that defections could weaken the party ahead of 2027, potentially giving the APC an advantage if it manages to resolve its internal disputes in time.

Reacting to his suspension, Kawu Sumaila dismissed the allegations against him, stating, “This is nothing but a political witch-hunt aimed at silencing those who have different views within the NNPP. The party should focus on governance rather than internal squabbles.”

His response reveals the growing dissatisfaction among some members of the NNPP, who believe that Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s administration is not doing enough to accommodate diverse voices within the party. Especially has this discontent followed the failed attempt to separate Governor Yusuf from Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, his political godfather and de facto leader of the party in the state.

Observers believe this internal unrest could prove costly if not properly managed before the next elections. This is more so as a faction of the party, led by Senator Masaud El-Jibrin, a former ally of Ganduje, continues to woo members of the party opposed to Kwankwaso’s leadership.

 

What are the possible scenarios ahead of 2027?

Observers believe that as the 2027 elections draw closer, multiple scenarios could unfold in Kano. The APC primary could become a fierce contest between Barau Jibrin and the Gawuna-Garo faction, with each side seeking to outmanoeuvre the other.

Ganduje’s stance will be crucial. Whether he actively backs a candidate or chooses to remain neutral could significantly shape the outcome. Meanwhile, unexpected alliances, defections, and internal realignments within the NNPP and APC could further complicate the political landscape.

Renowned political analyst, Dr. Kabiru Sufi, believes that Kano’s major political actors are already laying the groundwork for 2027.

“What we are witnessing now is early positioning. Key figures are testing their influence and seeking to consolidate power before official campaign activities begin,” he said.

As the 2027 elections approach, Kano, with its almost six million registered voters, remains a key battleground that will shape national politics. Thus, the state’s political elites are already making moves that could determine the future of both the APC and NNPP and also determine whether or not President Bola Ahmed Tinubu returns as president in 2027.