How many are we?

The federal government has spent not less than N291.5 billion in a bid to conduct a headcount of the country’s citizens and non-Nigerians living in the country within the last decade without success. The amount cited above excludes other technical and material assistance received from regional bodies and international donor agencies worth millions of dollars […]

The federal government has spent not less than N291.5 billion in a bid to conduct a headcount of the country’s citizens and non-Nigerians living in the country within the last decade without success.

The amount cited above excludes other technical and material assistance received from regional bodies and international donor agencies worth millions of dollars for the purpose of a headcount.

Since the 2006 housing and population census, which put the population of Nigeria at 140 million, the country has made two major attempts to conduct a census to capture a fairly accurate rate of growth of the number of residents in the country for economic and other planning purposes.

The first process started in 2014 under former President Goodluck Jonathan and was to have been concluded in 2016. This was suspended midway.

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While data had been collated and materials put together, the change of government necessitated à suspension of the idea. That preliminary effort, however, triggered another earnest preparation for a headcount, which was to have been concluded in 2023 under the Muhammadu Buhari administration. But this also could not be concluded due to its clash with the election period.

At the time the exercise was put on hold, however, over N291.5 billion had been spent on logistics and other arrangements for the exercise, Weekend Trust findings revealed.

The National Population Commission (NPC) had in a statement in 2023 explained how it spent the funds, which it said had been budgeted since 2014.

The commission explained that over N200 billion of the sum was from 2014 and was expended on basic preparatory efforts like the demarcation of the country into enumeration areas (EAs) for easy clustering.

“Yes, it is true that N200 billion has been spent on preparations for the 2023 census so far. However, this fund was not expended in the last few weeks, months or years, but since 2014 when preparations for the 2023 census actually began.

“Indeed, part of the N200 billion was expended before the coming of the present management, which was inaugurated twice between 2018 and 2020 and even before the inception of the Buhari administration.

“The first preparatory activity for the 2023 population and housing census was enumeration area demarcation, which the commission implemented in phases on an incremental basis spanning over a period of eight years.

“The commission procured a total of 810,000 for the 2023 census. Given this huge number, the item was procured in phases; and a significant proportion of these mini-computers have been procured, configured and now stored in all the Central Bank offices across the country. The procurement constitutes about half of the entire census expenditure,” the commission stated.

The commission added that it also procured vehicles, including motorcycles and boats for the movement of personnel and equipment across the length and breadth of the country, in addition to the renovation and equipping of all the 37 states and 774 local government offices for effective operational activities and storage for the exercise.

The NPC explained that as conducting a digital census requires a constant supply of electricity, not only in the cities but also in the hinterland and hard-to-reach areas of the country, it procured generators, power banks and installed solar power systems across the country for charging PDAs and other equipment given the epileptic nature of power supply across the country, 

The then minister of state for finance, budget and national planning, Clem Agba, also explained that the N291.5 billion ($632m) spent at that time stood at 46 per cent of total funding for the census,  which would require over N869 billion to conclude.

When Weekend Trust contacted the NPC’s Director of Public Affairs Division, Erelu Taibat to throw more light on how the  N291.5 billion was spent and what the commission was doing to hold the census, she referred our reporter to a statement she issued after the commission’s management met with the Speaker of the House of Representative, Tajudeen Abbas.

It would be recalled that the former chairman of the NPC, Chief Samuila Danko Makama, had during the preparation for the 2006 housing and population census stated that N34.5 billion was budgeted for the exercise though substantial assistance came from the European Union and other donor agencies.

 

No headcount in 19 years 

Nigeria’s inability to conduct the exercise in 2023 has made the country to fall short of the United Nations recommendations for a headcount of not exceeding at least every 10 years by almost two decades.

Despite the huge gap, the political will to conduct a fresh one in the shortest time possible seems lacking as no substantial provision has been made for the exercise in the 2025 budget.

After the botched attempt in 2023, it was hoped that the current administration would use the equipment and data generated,  in which so much funds had been expended, to hold a headcount latest by this year as any time  after that may again run into an election period.

Census, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), helps nations to get data on number of people, their spatial distribution, age and sex structure, as well as their living conditions and other key socioeconomic characteristics.

The organisation noted that data generated from census were critical to good governance, policy formulation, development planning, crisis prevention, mitigation and response, social welfare programmes and business market analyses.

Despite the importance of census, Nigeria has been left to rely on the 2006 figures; hence working with estimates and projections. But these figures are not accurate as they are not based on any research but speculation, which authenticity can be faulted. 

During the build-up to the 2023 elections, the commissioner for Ogun State and chairman, Public Affairs Committee of the NPC, Dr Eyitayo Oyetunji, recalled how the commission was ready to conduct the census in 2016, but said indecision and lack of resources became a stumbling block.

He said preparations commenced in earnest with a visit to the then President Goodluck Jonathan in 2014 to inform him of the commission’s plan.

“But he said if he was to do the census, he did not know if he would be in office by then, and if he wanted to do it, Nigerians would misunderstand it to say that he wanted to use the census as a conduit pipe to bring out money for the elections. It was not because he didn’t want to do it but because of the circumstances he found himself; and as he said, he lost the election and a new government came in 2015,” he said.

He explained that by 2016, “There was nothing anybody could have done to make the new government conduct census in 2016; they too needed time to prepare and get the right team. They did that and the first tenure ended. By the end of the tenure, they were ready, but unfortunately, COVID-19 came and there were no resources. There was insecurity and people were not able to move around. These are the practical reasons the census was moved.”

 

Postponement under Buhari

Under President Muhammadu Buhari, a headcount was initially fixed for March 29, 2023, but opposition against the date soon manifested as the period fell into the Islamic month of Ramadan.

It was not until the postponement of the gubernatorial election that the government announced a shift of the date to May 3 to insulate the exercise from the fallout of the elections.

But three weeks to the new date of the census, the National Population Commission again announced the postponement of the training of ad-hoc staff that would carry out the field work on the day of the census.

The entire exercise was eventually postponed indefinitely and no date has been fixed to start the enumeration till now.

 

Why next census may gulp over N1.9trn

With the former minister of state for finance, budget and national planning saying in 2023 that the country would need $1.887 billion for a census, out of which $632 million was budgeted and approved, the country still requires not less than $1.225 billion to complete the exercise.

The former minister had explained that N626 billion would be spent before and during the census exercise while N243 billion would be spent on post census exercise.

He said N327.2 billion would be spent on acquisition of 405,000 additional local content, tablets and accessories. He said “training of 885,000 persons for building numbering and household listing of all building and households in the country for seven days at an average cost of N12,410 per person per day, N76.8 billion, building numbering and household listing of all buildings and households in the country for 35 days at an average cost of N12,018 per person per day at the cost of N531 billion.”

With the naira depreciating by over 100 per cent since the former minister made the statement, experts say the government will have to source for close to N2 trillion to see it through.

Our reporters learnt that some of the gadgets bought for the exercise in 2023 have started developing faults, while those with a year lifespan would fail if they were deployed, thus might need to be replaced. This means that the government would need to spend on some of the equipment already purchased to get them working.

 

Moves in 2025

The 2025 proposed budget of the NPC shows no likelihood of census with only N36.211 billion, out of which N1.1 billion was appropriated specifically for “national population and housing census.”

A source in the commission, however, told Weekend Trust that the NPC had commenced advocacy to political leaders to facilitate a declaration of a census date.

“It is only the president that has the prerogative to proclaim a date for the census and not the chairman of the commission. 

“You can see that census was not among the 10 major policies his media team put out after the new year; that is why we are trying to intensify our advocacy because the country is losing a lot for not conducting the census,” he said.

On the funding, the source stated that the bulk of the money to be used would come from donations from private and development partners like the UNFPA, United Nations, European Union, among others.

He added that local private organisations were not exempted and the country’s telecommunications companies also have a major role to play, especially in providing data for the Personal Assistant Devices (PAD) since data collection would be done digitally.

The commission said the next population and housing census would be biometric-based, aligning with the recommendations of the 2030 round of census.

It was learnt that part of the advocacy outreach made the commission to pay courtesy visits to the National Assembly early this year.

While on the visit, the NPC chairman, Nasir Isa Kwarra, sought National Assembly’s assistance in securing funds for the 2025 population and housing census and other activities of the commission.

He said the next census would be biometric-based, aligning with the recommendations of the 2030 round of census and President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

He explained that so far, “Enumeration and demarcation across the 774 local government areas, the development of a National EA Frame, the launch of a digital recruitment platform for ad-hoc staff, the pretests and trial census to validate tools and methodologies; the procurement of 760,000 Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) for census operations; and the setup of Census Situation Room for real-time monitoring of census activities,” have been successfully completed.

 

Census as thorny issue 

Since independence, conducting headcounts in Nigeria has been a thorny issue as lots of sentiments are attached to the exercise due to the importance given to having high population figures based on the belief that posting such for communities, local governments, states or regions equals more benefits from the federal government.

Weekend Trust learnt that people believe that the higher the figures the more they would attract larger patronage from the central government in terms of resource allocations, appointments into public offices, allocation of polling units, de-lineation of federal constituencies and electoral relevance.

Due to these, there have been allegations of rigging by certain communities, followed by protests and rejection of figures by others rcise.

To de-escalate tension, subsequent headcounts have been designed to deemphasise the inclusion of religion and ethnic groups in the information required.

A former chairman of the National Population Commission, Festus Odimegwu, had during his tenure alleged that the country had not conducted any credible census since it started conducting the exercise in 1816.

He said the figures released after all the previous census exercises, including that of 2006, were mostly cooked up and declared that “there was no census.”

 

Past census exercises 

Nigeria has had not less than five census exercises since independence. It conducted one not long after attaining independence in 1962, but the results of the exercise were cancelled due to allegations of inflation of figures.

It held another one the following year in 1963, which, despite controversies, was accepted by the federal government and served as the data for development planning and resource allocation for 10 years.

Another headcount was conducted in 1973, but the result was cancelled again based on allegations of rigging.

It took another 18 years before another census would be conducted by the Ibrahim Babangida administration in 1991. The result of that election, which showed that Nigeria had a population figure of 88.5 million, was accepted and used for planning, until 2006 when the administration of Olusegun Obasanjo conducted another census, which is the one being used for data analysis and projections. The 2006 census in Nigeria recorded a total population of 140,431,790 people.

Nineteen years after, there has been no authoritative figure on Nigeria’s population, but it has been projected to have grown to about 230 million based on growth indices.

But many contend that Nigeria’s population is not up to that figure; and there’s a need to know the exact number of people living in Nigeria.