How Southern Kaduna moved from opposition fortress to APC stronghold
The political configuration of Kaduna State, especially in terms of party dominance across its senatorial districts, has seen a drastic change in the current political dispensation. Kaduna is divided into three senatorial districts: Kaduna South and Kaduna North, each with eight local governments, and Kaduna Central with seven. Since the emergence of the present administration […]
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The political configuration of Kaduna State, especially in terms of party dominance across its senatorial districts, has seen a drastic change in the current political dispensation.
Kaduna is divided into three senatorial districts: Kaduna South and Kaduna North, each with eight local governments, and Kaduna Central with seven.
Since the emergence of the present administration in 2023, Southern Kaduna, which comprises Jaba, Jema’a, Kachia, Kagarko, Kaura, Kauru, Sanga and Zangon Kataf, has undergone a dramatic transformation in political allegiance.
In a surprising shift, the All Progressives Congress (APC), once dismissed in the region, now holds complete control of all elective positions in the zone.
It marks a remarkable reversal in fortunes for an area historically regarded as the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) stronghold. For decades, Southern Kaduna stood firmly behind the PDP, consistently providing it with some of its most dependable electoral support. Senators representing the zone since 1999 were all elected on the PDP platform.
Even during local government elections, traditionally where ruling parties exert influence, Southern Kaduna residents held their ground, returning a significant number of PDP candidates.
Between 2015, when APC first took control of the state, and 2023, the region continued to overwhelmingly vote PDP, including in the presidential and governorship elections where Atiku Abubakar and Isa Ashiru Kudan emerged dominant.
Beyond party loyalty, the sentiment was deeply rooted in perception and identity politics. The APC was widely seen as a party with limited interest in the welfare of Southern Kaduna’s predominantly Christian population.
This perception deepened under former Governor Nasir El-Rufai. Many felt he was dismissive of their political and demographic sensitivity. He parted ways with initial Southern Kaduna supporters of the APC.
His administration was accused of sidelining the zone from traditional positions such as Secretary to the State Government, ministerial slots and even state party chairmanship.
What was initially political rivalry later morphed into deep distrust following El-Rufai’s choice of a Muslim running mate ahead of the 2019 election, despite Southern Kaduna’s Christian majority. Although his pick, Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe, is from Southern Kaduna and succeeded Barnabas Bala, the decision was interpreted as a political provocation. Since then, “anything APC” became politically toxic in the area, with even smaller parties outperforming APC at various levels.
A new approach under Uba Sani
The political atmosphere shifted in 2023 with Senator Uba Sani’s swearing-in as governor. Unlike his predecessor, insiders say he adopted an accommodative approach, reaching out to stakeholders across Southern Kaduna. He reportedly initiated dialogue, acknowledged their long-held grievances, and made deliberate efforts to restore their inclusion.
“The governor appointed more people from the zone into his government and promised to site more projects there,” a source familiar with the engagements told Daily Trust.
His efforts coincided with a major federal appointment that helped soften resistance towards the APC: the naming of General Christopher Musa, a son of the zone, as Chief of Defence Staff.
A PDP chieftain from the area, who requested anonymity, described the appointment as significant in light of ongoing insecurity.
“As a zone battling serious security challenges, General Musa’s appointment was viewed as a positive and deliberate effort by the federal government,” he said. “Gradually, our people who avoided the party like a plague began to embrace it. Those who started talking with the state government didn’t see reasons to hold back any longer.”
The fallout with El-Rufai accelerates realignment
The political equation shifted further when Governor Sani fell out with his political godfather, El-Rufai. What began as internal conflict within the APC provided tacit alignment between Sani and Southern Kaduna leaders, whose political disagreements with the former governor had already been entrenched.
“When Uba Sani and El-Rufai locked horns, his concern appeared more genuine to our people,” one observer noted. “They saw him as battling the same political forces they opposed.”
The turning point came during the local government elections, when for the first time the APC openly won all eight councils in Southern Kaduna. This was a watershed moment after years of resistance.
State and National Assembly members who had contested and won on other platforms began defecting to the APC. The wave of defections culminated with Senator Sunday Marshall Katung switching to the APC.
Today, the APC has complete dominance over Southern Kaduna: one senator, all five House of Representatives members, nine state lawmakers, all eight council chairmen, and 87 councillors.
One APC youth leader from the zone, Mock Kure, attributed the sweeping victory to the administration’s inclusive governance. “This achievement is largely attributable to the charismatic and people-centred leadership of Governor Uba Sani,” he said.
Coercion, not conversion in play – PDP
Repeated attempts to obtain official reaction from the PDP’s state publicity secretary, Maria Dogo, were unsuccessful. The state PDP chairman, Edward Mashal, when contacted, simply replied via WhatsApp: “Talk to the zonal chairman pls.”
However, a leading PDP figure in the state, who also asked to remain anonymous, insisted the ruling party is using pressure tactics rather than persuasion.
“They are the ruling party in the state, so they’re using all means, including juicy offers, party tickets and blackmail to woo our members,” he alleged. He firmly maintained that the PDP is not dead in the zone. “The majority of the people are still with us,” he said.
Implications of the shift
Southern Kaduna has historically served as the power base of the opposition in Kaduna State at least since 2015. Its collapse into APC flags a strategic political triumph for the Uba Sani administration. It means that unlike his predecessor, the governor is unlikely to contend with organised opposition within the region.
However, some observers warn that the emergence of a single dominant political force could undermine democratic accountability.
A Kaduna-based political analyst, Maj. Yahaya Ibrahim Shinko (rtd), said the wave of defections is primarily driven by personal political interests rather than ideological alignment.
“Whether the moves were in the interest of the people will be tested at the next election cycle,” he said. “If the electorate is not convinced by the reasons advanced, especially where there is no meaningful dividend of democracy that impacts people directly, it becomes an opportunity for the opposition to reclaim those positions.”
He added that attempts to institute a one-party system are unlikely to succeed. “I’m not surprised at all,” he said. “Every person, whether a politician or not, has a fundamental right to associate and join any political party of his choice within the limits of the law.”
Also commenting, Kaduna-based political analyst Haruna Nasarawa, said the political shift in Southern Kaduna is closely tied to the strategic developmental provisions the APC has extended to the region.
“For example, before now, they had no federal institutions,” he said. “But the Tinubu administration established the University of Applied Sciences in Kachia. Following that, someone from the area, Matthew Kukah, was appointed Chancellor, and Professor Qurix, who is also from the zone, became the Vice Chancellor. The Registrar and the Bursar are equally from the area.
“In addition, they were given a Federal Medical Hospital in the region, and its head is also from Southern Kaduna. There is also the military barracks that was allocated to the zone. When you put all these developments together, it is understandable that political leaders in the region would begin to reconsider their alignment and move towards the APC—particularly when they compare it with the many years they supported the PDP without witnessing this level of development.
“If you recall, in 2015 the PDP did not win any Senate seat in the state except in Southern Kaduna, yet they still did not experience this scale of progress within such a short period,” he added.
As the APC consolidates power and Southern Kaduna adapts to its new political alignment, observers say the real test will be whether the new political harmony translates into tangible development and long-term inclusivity.
With security still a concern, the region will be watching whether the appointments – now that General Musa has been replaced as Chief of Defence Staff – and political realignments lead to improved outcomes.