Hurricane Tunis and its aftershocks

With a toga of religiosity covering their absolutism the Arab dictators have escaped justice for too long. They are also buoyed by the intractable Middle East crisis; the most volatile in the world into complacency. They believe that they are kings of the earth answerable only to God on the day of judgement. They have […]

With a toga of religiosity covering their absolutism the Arab dictators have escaped justice for too long. They are also buoyed by the intractable Middle East crisis; the most volatile in the world into complacency. They believe that they are kings of the earth answerable only to God on the day of judgement. They have forgotten as my people say, that the God of today does not ride the horse of retribution, indeed for reckoning, he uses a supersonic jet.

And so it was, that Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali lived in an encased cocoon propelled by sheer greed and avarice. As president, he was answerable to the greed of his household and a few lackeys. The Tunisian people’s patrimony was his to dispense and he did disburse to his children and his in-laws – they owned everything that mattered. The people he was supposed to govern were emasculated to a point of stupor, and they tolerated it with stoicism in the faint hope of a saviour and when that appeared to be too long coming, they finally found their feet and hit the road rioting. A frightened Mr. Ben Ali attempted the old scare but soon found out that it won’t work – he picked a jet and off to Saudi Arabia. His in-law and children flew farther away to Canada where they are finding out that even wintry lands could scorch.

Hosni Mubarak wears a cherubic grin but he is a clinical specimen for gubernatorial dementia. While his people suffered the worst of deprivations, he is cosseted in an oasis. As an ally of the West, he created an island for a stream of foreign tourists who prided his country as an example of a working dictatorship. In reality, most things are not in order and the street protests show it. Mubarak has sustained himself in government for almost three decades on the same old tricks. Now that the people have finally risen against him, he has reached for his old bag of tricks – writing out dud cheques at intervals and failing to meet demonstrators on their own terms. Boxed to the wall, the Pharaonic tyrant has continued to dig in appointing a geriatric minion very likely to cover his tracks as it becomes clear that nothing but his ouster would satisfy the swelling ranks of the opposition.

For those of us in this part of the world, the tricks are not new. We have witnessed million man marches of rented crowds, the only innovation that Mubarak has added to his own is using his undercover agents to counter popular revolts, driven from their stations, the Gestapo returned on horse backs throwing stones, Molotov cocktails and using live ammunitions. Disappointed that the people finally decoded the tricks of his propaganda stool – state media, the people tuned in to the international media, once his ally, now his nemesis. Mubarak has turned against the global media his secret police harassing and confiscating transmission equipments, beating and bullying journalists. Cowed in shame and opprobrium and a dishonourable man, Mubarak wants an honourable way out. He is unlikely to get one.

His allies in the Arab world are getting the jitters. Reforms such as could only be imagined are taking place across the Maghreb from Jordan through to Algeria, Yemen and Syria despots are busy watching their calendars and fixing exit dates unlikely to deter the massing crowd on the streets.

But are these revolutions? It seems not. Except one classifies what happened in post-Amin Uganda as a revolution. The dictators may negotiate safe passage, but they are sure to relinquish power to stooges who may be worse than them. These negotiated leaders who just happen on the horizon have no preparation for power and no exposure different from the lessons they learnt by helping to propel their benefactors in power. They have no blueprint except to play cards that may make their former masters look bad while they dig in. They are very likely to want to stay on. In essence, these revolts are too spontaneous and lack the necessary taproots to benefit the people who galvanised them long-term. The emergent usurpers are too linked to the old regimes to pander to the wish of the people for long.  They are suitable for immediate palliatives, but likely to plunge their societies into deeper morass. Dictatorship has survived for too long for the opposition to sell itself on its transformative programmes. Without roots, these revolts will bring nothing but cosmetic changes.

As for the potential of this new wind blowing across graft-rutted sub-Saharan Africa, there is that potential, but it will not happen tomorrow. That is not to say that things won’t change sometime, but it will have to get worse than it is currently if it is to ever get better. But this is close enough to elicit the warning – dictador emptor – sit-tight dictators, beware!