IATA laments Middle East crisis, urges states to protect civil aviation

As the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran enters day four with flights operations to the Middle East grounded, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has urged states to respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation free from harm. This is just as the IATA representing over 360 airlines accounting for […]

As the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran enters day four with flights operations to the Middle East grounded, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has urged states to respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation free from harm.

This is just as the IATA representing over 360 airlines accounting for some 85% of global air traffic  released data for January 2026 global passenger demand indicating total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), up 3.8% compared to January 2025.

Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), increased 3.5% year-on-year. The load factor was 82.0% (+0.2 ppt compared to January 2025), a record high for January.

Similarly, African airlines saw an 11.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 10.1% year-on-year. The load factor was 77.4% (+1.1 ppt compared to January 2025).

Also, Middle Eastern carriers saw a 7.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 7.8% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.2% (-0.4 ppt compared to January 2025).

However, the organisation is worried that the positive projection for 2026 might be impacted negatively by the current hostilities while hoping for early resolutions of the issues.

Daily Trust reports that Middle East mega carriers including UAE’s Emirates and Etihad; Qatar Airways, as well as other international carriers have suspended flights to and from the Middle East indefinitely since the crisis started.

Over 2,500 flights are said to be impacted daily. In Nigeria, many passengers of Emirates, Qatar, Ethiopia Airlines, among others heading to the Middle East have been stranded since Saturday when the war broke out.

IATA’s Director General/CEO, Willie Walsh said, “The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8% expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026.

“Schedule data, for example, indicate a 5.2% increase in global seat capacity by March, which would be the fastest expansion since April 2024. Events over the weekend have, however, introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs.

“We all hope for an early peaceful resolution to the current hostilities. In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation free from harm.”

According to the data, international demand rose 5.9% compared to January 2025. Capacity was up 5.8% year-on-year, and the load factor was 82.5% (+0.1 ppt compared to January 2025).

Domestic demand increased 0.1% compared to January 2025. Capacity was down -0.4% year-on-year. The load factor was 81.2% (+0.4 ppt compared to January 2025).

January demand was skewed by a shift in the Lunar New Year from January in 2025 to February in 2026. Lunar New Year typically drives a spike in demand, as families reconnect to celebrate the holiday. The year-on-year comparison has the effect of making January 2026 demand appear slightly weaker.

 

 

“Average fares are expected to fall in real terms over the course of 2026, continuing a long-established trend of ever more affordable air travel. This is despite persistent cost pressures from rising infrastructure charges, onerous regulatory burdens, and the mounting cost of the energy transition. In the face of these cost and regulatory pressures, it is notable that 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999. Governments who value competition should consider this a canary in the coal mine. To protect and enhance the consumer benefits of connectivity, these cost and regulatory issues must be addressed,” said Walsh.