Ibn Khaldun and the Arab revolution

While on daily basis we are being inundated by pundits on the reasons that triggered the revolution, Ibn Khaldun has already predicted it. This is quite important because history is crucial in providing the light that will help us to understand the present. Ibn Khaldun’s classical works such Kitab al Ibar which was written between […]

While on daily basis we are being inundated by pundits on the reasons that triggered the revolution, Ibn Khaldun has already predicted it. This is quite important because history is crucial in providing the light that will help us to understand the present. Ibn Khaldun’s classical works such Kitab al Ibar which was written between 1377 and 1380, and his most famous work, Muqaddima or the Introduction in English have explored various ways in which we should understand our society, and provide insight in to the forces of our social structure that will trigger changes in our society. So what are the social mechanisms that will open the doors of the uprising that we are witnessing today in the Arab world as discussed by Ibn Khaldun?

Writing in the Journal of Arab Studies Quarterly in 1994, Ahmad Al-Arifi and Michael Brun provided an insight into the theory of dynastic circles proposed by ibn Khaldun. According to them “all aspects of society appear and change during the rise, zenith, degeneration and eventual collapse of a ruling dynasty”, for Ibn Khaldun therefore “The fate of a dynasty was clearly related to events in the spheres of commerce, craftsmanship, culture, bureaucratic institutions, urban development, military organization, religion, and education. As such, “increasing social stratification resulted when a dynasty approaching its zenith maintained its power by using it to distribute privileges, a method that would eventually lead to its decline.”

Therefore what is happening today in the Arab world should be seen as a product of a society held tight by ruling dynasties, whether they are monarchies or quasi-civilian dictatorships. These ruling dynasties whether in Yemen, Libya, Tunisia and other regimes in the Arab World have either reached their full circle or they are in the process of expiring for over staying their welcome. They have reached this point because they failed to be in touch with their people, they have cornered the wealth of their countries to few family members and cronies, and the political space has been closed completely to the extent that within a family people could be suspicious of each other because they can’t be too sure if there is no government informant among them.

What the leadership in the Arab world however failed to understand is that societies especially like those in the Arab World, bounded by language, religion and culture develop what Ibn Khaldun called “group feeling” and “social solidarity” which is promoted by identity, culture and blood ties. So when a youth in Tunisia called Muhammad Bouaziz decided to take his own life because of the harsh conditions in the society; rising unemployment and a closed political space that does not care about those in the lower structure of the society, Mr Bouaziz simply ignited the “group feeling” and “social solidarity” that  Ibn Khaldun has envisaged. Already this sense of societal solidarity has consumed leaders of three dynasties, Zain al Abidin Ibn Ali in Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Mu’ammar Ghaddafi in Libya. And it will not be incorrect to predict that these three will not be the last.

However this hurricane that keeps blowing in the Arab world should also be carefully celebrated, because as the scholars of social change will tell you, although conflict can bring change, it may not necessarily lead to progress. Already within the group solidarity that is driving the revolution, there are sub-group feelings, which can either delay or even pollute the success of the revolution in the Arab World. This is particularly true when you look at the crises in Syria and Bahrain. Syria is a majority Sunni country but with a minority shi’ite ruling dynasty, Bahrain is Shi’a majority country with a Sunni ruling dynasty. Two key players in the Arab and Muslim World, Saudi Arabia and Iran have already taken side by supporting the regime that best represents its interest. To see this division more vividly you only need to make comparison of the coverage of the uprising in Aljazeera, the leading multinational channel in the Arab world based in Qatar, and the Iranian funded Press TV. Dr Azzam Tamimi, the director of the Institute of Islamic Political Thought said if care is not taken, this could undermine the entire revolution.

Ibn Khaldun’s work paid significant attention to the processes in society that mastermind the rise and fall of dynasties. History to Ibn Khaldun is an important teacher that can help us understand our society. The divisions, the confusions, the instability and the chaos in the Arab world has been experienced before. That was why thinkers like Ibn Khaldun wrote about them. The Arabs need to look inward, and find solution to their problems rather than placing their destiny in the hands of external forces that have no “group feeling” for them.

Dr. Yusha’u was a producer at the BBC World Service, London, and he contributed this piece from the United Kingdom. Email: [email protected]