Imagine an ‘Ijaw spring’

Either way, both are right. “Chaos theory” is a course we were taught at graduate class, to analyse and predict developments during crises. Nigeria’s short but turbulent political history provides excellent empirical data for such study. It is a history of almost endless crises and national calamities interrupted by brief intervals of calm and normalcy. […]

Either way, both are right. “Chaos theory” is a course we were taught at graduate class, to analyse and predict developments during crises. Nigeria’s short but turbulent political history provides excellent empirical data for such study. It is a history of almost endless crises and national calamities interrupted by brief intervals of calm and normalcy. The causes of Nigeria’s crises, and periodic chaos, have been mostly internal. Almost always, they can be attributed to a remarkable inability to resolve differences through dialogue, accommodation or compromise.
Military coups  – in 1966, 1975, 1976, 1983 and 1985 – and military-backed regime changes – in August 1993 and another coup in November 1993 – are the most frequent consequences of our system’s failure. But the consequences for the country of political failure were much more fundamental. Nigeria’s civil war of 1967 to 1970 was a result of political failure. The industrial collapse of the ‘80s, religious radicalisation, growing economic and social insecurity, rising poverty, corruption and bad governance have all contributed to the decay and deepened the rot that we experience today. What imbues our polity more, apart from terrorist and sectarian violence, is a callous disregard for the welfare and well-being of Nigeria’s powerless millions. Nigeria was last saved from the brink through “the doctrine of necessity”. The present leaders won the democratic mandate, partly due to the resulting sympathy that they had been side-lined for too long.
But five years of Ijaw rule has deepened the rat race. Those who benefitted from the nation’s magnanimity have bared their fangs on it, raping the tills, fragmenting national cohesion and polarising the people. Call it the Ijaw race.
If anything, corruption, incompetence and bad governance have surpassed all records set by previous regimes. If the 1980s were a lost hour for democracy, this has been half a decade of political banditry, and an inferno waiting to engulf the country.
In any normal political system, failure of governance has political consequences that include rejection of the government and political leaders at the polls. Yet, it is clear that, the structure of Nigeria’s political and electoral system does not punish bad politicians. It explains why from an economic perspective, the first term of this government has been rather disappointing, to say the least. Inflation has doubled, the Naira has depreciated, investor-confidence has crashed, governmental borrowings have peaked, and owing to power failure, production or manufacturing has failed to register any progress.
What seems to be lacking is management competence. It is as if the economic managers have failed to fully grasp the underlying complexity of the challenges facing the economy and like a confused and desperate team has simply resorted to knee-jerk actions. As we know, managing national economies is an entirely different ball game to basic corporate management, since a state needs to think out of the box to safeguard its citizens.
Further, state economic policies tend to have multi-dimensional effects and, therefore, require deft handling to ensure that short-term quick fixes do not end up in long-term failure.
After so much hype, the much touted energy policy has been a complete regret. Driven by advisors, who may have done well in their personal financial affairs, the policy lacks a sound vision, misses the main mission and fails to explain how it will banish darkness from the country and revive the industry.
The cumulative result of all these will be seen in 2015, which is yet another election year. Nigeria’s deprived and exploited majority has so far endured, in virtual silence, the blatant failures of governance, official corruption, joblessness and poverty. Terrorist violence and sectarian conflicts have had a free reign. They have withstood the government maintained energy crisis and the in-your-face conspicuous consumption of Nigeria’s elite. Nigerians have also coped with the repeated capitulation of its elite to foreign interests and demands, compromising Nigeria’s pride, dignity and its interests.
In surviving the over-whelming distress, they have devised a strategy that has made one and all, Ijaws. In Port Harcourt, in 2011, Namadi Sambo campaigned with a sweet bowlegged number to the song Port Harcourt boy. We all dance to Ijaw tunes today; but for how long is what we do not know, until 2015 is over.
When political ‘springs’ emerge suddenly, there are, naturally, many questions about their origins and objectives. It is not yet clear how the Arab Spring in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia actually started. Questions were raised but answers remain unclear.
Political division is unhealthy for any state or society. For Nigeria, it could be lethal. The recent frustrations of the five northern governors can easily be exacerbated into a larger political and national crisis.
It can add to the perception that Nigeria is in crisis and may descend into chaos. Indeed, chaos could easily grip Nigeria from different directions. Internally, there can be no stability or development without ending the violence. The insurgency poses an even greater existential threat to the state. The economy is in dire straits. It cannot be allowed to languish in the hands of high-office flaunting officials who have no solutions.
Many continue to discoun-tenance the likelihood of a Nigerian uprising. Some say Nigerians are too docile to react, others say our cultural diversity does not permit cohesion of that nature. But strife is usually spontaneous, anywhere. If the fundamental problems of Nigeria like security, economy, politics and governance are left unattended, the country could well descend from crisis to chaos.
Therefore, change must be embraced by all as 2015 approaches. Elections must be genuinely democratic and reflect the free will of the people. The proposition for a change, whether voiced by government or others, including this column, should be taken seriously. Without such bold action, Nigeria is poised to fall off the political cliff and that is when the Ijaw Spring will show up.

Bello-Barkindo. ([email protected])