In these defining moments

Tony Blair came and proffered these counsels. Many other “experts” have been repeating them. Now the World Bank is repeating the same to President Muhammadu Buhari. And he is, from all indications, paying some attention. Chances are, in the next few months, we may be witnesses to some poorly worked out and totally ludicrous policy […]

Tony Blair came and proffered these counsels. Many other “experts” have been repeating them. Now the World Bank is repeating the same to President Muhammadu Buhari. And he is, from all indications, paying some attention. Chances are, in the next few months, we may be witnesses to some poorly worked out and totally ludicrous policy capitulations, bunched together in a way that will without doubt destroy any chance we have for real change, the type that could be beneficial to the majority.
How on earth can any president be asked to devalue the Naira, deregulate the economy, increase fuel price, raise VAT and other taxes, keep on hiking electricity tariff every couple of months (without bothering to improve supply), reintroduce toll-gate fees, all at the same time, and hope to get re-elected, no one is saying, but those are the dominant “expert” economic recommendations of the day. Nor is the President helping matters by failing to put together a credible economic team to help him map out a way forward.
Where is the real APC? What happened to the hopes we were all nurturing? Or is it too early to start worrying? Admittedly, part of the answer lies in his prioritisation and sequencing of policies. Insurgency is now, for the first time, being really addressed and the capacity of Boko Haram to wreak havoc is being effectively degraded.
The government has also started exposing the shameless lies and looting that characterised the Jonathan “arms purchase” fiction. Even before turning the search lights on the Ministry of Finance, the CBN or other leaking MDAs the revelations are frightening enough. The PDP kleptocrats never even bothered to ask themselves how they were going to sustain that blood-sucking system. They simply assume things could go on forever, and they would always be in-charge, “happily-ever-after” just like in the fairy tales.
However, most Nigerians believe that the returned “Abacha loot” were most probably re-looted. But PMB should use these new recoveries wisely. Still, though trillions are now being recovered the people still need to know how they will be used differently to help them pay their rents, settle school fees and put food on the table. Most cannot understand why they went through the last Sallah with empty pockets, why salaries and pensions are being delayed, and why the coming Xmas and New Year are looking bleak. What is the economic direction?
Which takes us to the other problem; can PMB really be able to aggregate all the expectations of the disparate groups that helped to put him in power, and come up with a clear economic thrust that will satisfy everyone? Just some few months ago, the narrative was that the economy was doing well. At least on paper.
The people, on the other hand were actually suffering, and all the indices were showing real increases in unemployment, poverty and inequality. Corruption was massive, increasing and unchecked. Insecurity was rising, helped by ineptitude and cluelessness on the part of an unaccountable and dishonest government. A more rational part of the ruling class knew they will be rejected at the polls so they teamed up with the only man who seemed, from his track record, capable of controlling the restive poor. These poor and suffering masses on their part, who managed to see beyond the religious and ethnic manipulations of the PDP, decided to put their trust on the same man, Buhari.
Now all these groups expect him to satisfy their different expectations, some to ensure he provides the peace and continuity for them to enrich and enjoy as usual, the others to provide the change they require to better their lot. APC, which should be the forum to aggregate and sieve these conflicting expectations, is proving very weak and seems unable to rise up to the tasks of mapping out the route to a shared prosperity. It will have to be turned into a real political party, a task that PMB may have to pursue himself.
Add to these the very real problems of actually running a government and one can see why it is not possible to sit back, look at the big-picture, discern the general trends of events and come up with clear directions to follow.
So, back to all the magic formulae being put forward. If we must devalue the Naira, deregulate the economy, increase fuel price, raise VAT and other taxes, keep on hiking electricity tariff (without commensurate improvement in supply), reintroduce toll-gate fees, we should be clear why we are doing so, and why all at the same time?
Yes, Buhari may likely be able to get away with pushing these unpopular reforms through right now, given his popularity. The real questions are how far can he go without eroding his political base irreparably, and are these policies the right ones, right now? Since IBB days we have been deregulating, devaluing and disengaging government from the economy without the promised returns. The economy refuses to diversify and everyone, including the so called private sector, remains dependent on the government. On paper, the economy continues to do well; the people, however, continue to suffer. Agriculture remains backward, manufacturing value-added stagnated and new employment dried up.
Fashola can bring back the toll-gates and collect funds for maintaining our roads, or building new ones. But what of the vehicle licence fees we already pay? We are already paying too much to the discos for electricity, even when none is supplied. Why must we continue to pay more so that they can invest and modernise their networks, when we are not shareholders? But these are probably minor issues. Even the educational system steals from our kids, for numerous exams, scratch cards and development levies and we all keep quiet and do nothing, satisfied with pieces of paper telling us the kids are actually learning something, when in actual fact they are not.
The main danger lies in stiffer VAT, a confused foreign exchange policy, and some racket called fuel subsidy which everyone knows is crude theft but we are refusing to ask the right questions. Why are we the only oil-rich nation that insist on exporting crude and then give some import licence to bring back refined products, and pay them for the privilege. How much petrol and kerosene do we even require domestically? And how would higher taxes, deregulation and devaluation, now looking almost inevitable, affect our lives and chances?
(To be concluded next week)