Inside Alia’s second term battle

The 2027 governorship contest in Benue State is gradually begining to take shape following the emergence of gubernatorial candidates of some political parties in the past few days. Our correspondent reports that already the contest in Benue has formed into a three-way battle between incumbent Governor Hyacinth Alia of the All Progressives Congress (APC), former […]

The 2027 governorship contest in Benue State is gradually begining to take shape following the emergence of gubernatorial candidates of some political parties in the past few days.

Our correspondent reports that already the contest in Benue has formed into a three-way battle between incumbent Governor Hyacinth Alia of the All Progressives Congress (APC), former Attorney General of the Federation Michael Aondoakaa of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) and former House of Representatives member Herman Hembe of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

 

APC’s Alia

Although, the APC still appears structurally dominant in the state, internal crises within the ruling party and fall outs of the primaries may create openings for the opposition if they can sustain unity and build grassroots momentum.

However, the APC Alia’s incumbency advantage places the party on the front.

For now, Alia enters the race with the strength of an incumbency who control state structures, has visibility in governance, and the emotional connection he still enjoys among many rural voters who see him as a departure from old political elites.

The incumbency power for Alia through his control of state machinery, appointments, patronage networks, and local political mobilisation structures cannot be wished away.

Moreover, despite criticisms, he still retains significant support  among ordinary voters, especially those who viewed his 2023 victory as a people’s revolt against entrenched political interests.

Beside, the APC federal advantage under President Bola Tinubu’s government, which could translate into federal backing, security leverage, and campaign resources will enable the governor’s second term bid.

Also, the fragmented opposition – the PDP and ADC may split anti-Alia votes, especially in Tiv dominated areas to his advantage.

Furthermore as a Catholic priest-turned-politician, Alia still enjoys symbolic moral credibility among sections of the electorate.

However, the governor maybe  vulnerable in the area of insecurity following pocket of attacks in parts of Benue.

This explains why opposition parties are already weaponising the perception that the anti-open grazing law has weakened under his administration.

The prolonged feud between Alia and loyalists of Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator George Akume, could also weaken party cohesion. 

If unresolved, despite recent reconciliation efforts, disgruntled APC stakeholders may quietly sabotage the reelection effort.

On the other hand, critics accuse the governor of centralising power and alienating political allies, traditional stakeholders, and some lawmakers. He is also partly blamed for economic hardship and delayed local government workers wages.

 

PDP Aondoakaa

The emergence of Chief Michael Aondoakaa as PDP consensus candidate signalled that the party’s attempt to rebuild around experience, elite negotiation, and internal reconciliation.

Questions are however being asked as to whether the PDP candidate can revive the party.

The perceived strengths likely to work for Aondoakaa revolves around the elite political network.

Aondoakaa, a former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the federation has longstanding connections within national and state political structures.

Also, the party now appears determined to avoid destructive primaries by toeing the consensus arrangement which may help reduce post primary bitterness to clear the path for its candidate.

Similarly, the ex-Governor, Samuel Ortom bloc queuing behind Aondoakaa  remains politically valuable because Ortom still controls part of the grassroots.

  The PDP is likely to campaign heavily on insecurity, displacement, and alleged weakening of the anti-open grazing law to curry support of voters at the grassroots.

However challenges may arise from several factors which include zoning.

Our correspondents that while Ortom still has influence, many voters also associate the PDP with past governance failures. This may affect Aondoakaa negatively as a vote for PDP is being painted as a return to the old order.

Also, some stakeholders are unhappy over how the consensus candidates emerged, especially concerning zoning considerations and those grievances could resurface later.

Analysts say Aondoakaa is respected politically but may struggle emotionally with younger and populist voters compared to Alia’s grassroots appeal even as the PDP structural decline remains a threat.

For now, the PDP’s local structures have weakened in some LGAs since losing power in 2023 and its candidate would have to do extra work to make any headway in the next general election.

 

 ADC’s Hembe 

The emergence of Herman Hembe introduces a potentially disruptive third force into the race.

Though the ADC lacks the statewide machinery of APC and PDP, Hembe’s candidacy could become more evident if APC internal divisions deepen.

The factors helping Hembe could be his youthful and reformist messaging.

Hembe has positioned himself as an alternative to both APC and PDP establishments.

He is articulate, media-savvy, and capable of driving issue-based campaigns following his strong communication skills.

The ADC will likely get protest votes if voters are disillusioned with both major parties and decides to gravitate toward him and if anti-Alia APC stakeholders quietly align with ADC, Hembe could gain unexpected momentum.

But, the major obstacles facing ADC remains its weak party structure since the party lacks grassroots machinery across all 23 LGAs.

The party might also not be able to sustain a statewide governorship campaign which requires enormous resources just as Benue politics has traditionally favoured APC and PDP dominance.

There is also the risk of strategic voting as some opposition voters may abandon ADC close to election day to avoid wasting votes on a third-party candidate.

At this stage, however, Governor Alia remains the candidate to beat because of incumbency and APC structure.

While Aondoakaa need to do more by giving PDP elite stability and must reconnect emotionally with grassroots voters.

And Hembe may emerge as a spoiler or dark horse if APC divisions worsen and protest votes rise.

No doubt, the contest is still early, but insecurity, APC internal cohesion, and opposition unity may ultimately determine whether the 2027 governorship election becomes a comfortable APC retention or Benue’s most competitive race.

 

More governorship candidates

 

SDP: Professor Sebastine Hon

The emergence of Professor Sebastine Hon as the governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has introduced further intellectual and issue driven dimension into the Benue 2027 race, even though he still faces enormous structural hurdles against the APC and PDP machinery.

Hon’s greatest strength is his reputation. As a Professor of Law and Senior Advocate of Nigeria, he enters the contest with strong credentials, elite recognition and a perception of competence. 

Another factor which will work in his favour is his vocal stance on insecurity in Benue State as over the years, Hon has consistently spoken against attacks on rural communities and the herders-farmers crisis, often positioning himself as an advocate for victims of violence. 

He would have to walk his talk in a state where security remains the defining political issue, in order to gain a major campaign advantage that he offers a clearer strategy than both the ruling APC and the PDP.

Politically, his defection from the PDP to SDP may also attract disgruntled PDP supporters who were unhappy with the consensus emergence of the former Attorney General of the Federation, Michael Aondoakaa. 

Hon was initially among PDP aspirants before the party settled for Aondoakaa through consensus. His exit suggests there may still be unresolved dissatisfaction within some PDP blocs. 

However, Hon’s biggest problem is structure. The SDP does not currently possess the grassroots political network that APC and PDP have built across the 276 council wards in Benue and without strong grassroots penetration, even popular candidates often struggle on election day.

Another challenge is voter psychology as many Benue voters still approach governorship elections with the belief that only APC or PDP can realistically win. This mindset could make it difficult for undecided voters to fully commit to SDP, even if they personally admire Hon.

Still, Hon may perform stronger as he has already positioned himself as one of the most credible alternative voices in the race and a candidate capable of reshaping the conversation around governance in Benue State.

 

NDC: Professor Terhemba Shija

Terhemba Shija has emerged as a governorship candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in Benue State, a development which has added another intellectual and ideological layer to the Benue 2027 governorship contest.

Like some of the candidates, he would face the difficult task of converting public visibility into statewide electoral strength.

Prof. Shija’s strongest asset is his intellectual profile and activist style politics. As a professor of Critical Theory at Nasarawa State University, Keffi, he is widely known in academic and public affairs circles for his outspoken interventions on governance, identity politics and social justice issues in Benue State.

Unlike traditional politicians who rely heavily on patronage structures, Shija projects himself as an ideological candidate focused on reform, accountability and political consciousness. 

Another advantage for Shija is his appeal among educated youths and politically conscious voters who are increasingly frustrated with the dominance of established political blocs in Benue. 

As the NDC itself gradually gains attention nationally due to alignments involving reform minded politicians and supporters seeking alternatives outside APC and PDP, that atmosphere could help Shija build momentum among urban voters, students and sections of the middle class looking for a different political direction. 

Shija, over the years, has maintained a visible voice on Benue affairs, frequently challenging government policies and political narratives. His recent confrontation with pro-government groups over the “No Alia, No Benue” slogan further reinforced his image as an independent minded critic unwilling to align blindly with the ruling establishment.

However, his biggest challenge remains political structure. While he may command intellectual respect online and in elite circles, translating that into votes across remote rural communities in Zones A, B and C will be far more difficult.

The NDC itself is still developing organisationally in Benue State. Although the party has begun attracting new entrants, including defectors from other parties, its grassroots network is nowhere near the level of APC or PDP.

To this end, Shija may struggle with the perception that the NDC lacks realistic winning chances but his candidacy could gather momentum if the election climate shifts toward protest voting. 

At the moment, Shija may not command the statewide machinery necessary to lead the race outright, but his presence adds intellectual depth to the contest and positions him as one of the more unconventional voices capable of influencing public debate ahead of the 2027 Benue governorship election.