Is Nigeria drifting to one-party state?

One of the biggest surprises of the 2023 general elections was that political parties that were rarely given a chance to win due to their perceived small size and newness won seats at the various elections. Asides the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), of the 18 political parties that participated […]

One of the biggest surprises of the 2023 general elections was that political parties that were rarely given a chance to win due to their perceived small size and newness won seats at the various elections.

Asides the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), of the 18 political parties that participated in the 2023 elections, the Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Young Peoples Party (YPP) did well at the level of presidential, governorship and National Assembly elections while some other parties also pulled surprises at the state assembly elections.

Due to the array of legislators elected on different platforms, the 10th National Assembly was described as the most pluralistic in terms of partisan diversity and was expected to be the most vibrant.

Two years after inauguration, however, the expected opposition has not happened and disagreements on ideological basis is seriously lacking.

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Rather than consolidate on their strengths, it appeared the opposition parties including the PDP, which was thought to be a behemoth with enough structures and experience to give the APC a run for its money are fizzling out, with their members leaving all their structures to defect to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

In less than two years, all the promising opposition parties, PDP, LP, SDP, APGA, YPP, have lost considerable numbers and are no longer near where they were in 2023.

Apart from legislators, notable party leaders and recently even governors are leaving the camps of the opposition.

The development is causing serious concerns in political circles with many raising the alarm that Nigeria may be heading towards a one party state.

A one-party state, according to an Abuja-based lawyer and public affairs analyst Ikoro N. Ikoro, refers to a situation where the country’s constitution only authorises one political party to exist. 

Research have shown that this is what is practiced in countries like Vietnam, China, North Korea, Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, Laos, Eritrea and Cuba where only the ruling party is officially empowered to seek elections.

The Workers Party of Korea for instance is not just the ruling party recognised by the state but directs all political activities when nominal parties are allowed to participate in the election process which is structured around a hierarchical system with the Supreme Leader as the ultimate authority.

Only last week, a group of 18 activists and intellectuals sounded the alarm over what they said is a calculated and systematic effort by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to dismantle the democratic foundations in Nigeria and reduce the country to a one-party state.

The Group of Democrats noted that, “under this administration, political pluralism is being eroded not by persuasion or performance, but by bribery, blackmail, and coercion.”

The alarm was apparently in reaction to the mass movement of opposition party members to the ruling party.

Within the last three weeks, more opposition governors have either endorsed Tinubu for 2027 or have taken steps that reveal their intentions to do so.

Governor of Delta State, Sheriff Oborevwori and Ifeanyi Okowa, running mate to the PDP 2023 presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, defected to the APC.

 Akwa Ibom governor, Pastor Umo Eno, did not only declare support for President Tinubu for 2027, but served notice that he could be crossing over to the ruling party soon.

As if that was not enough, there are speculations that most of the other PDP governors might join the bandwagon.

 

Strength of the opposition

The political parties that participated in the 2023 elections are; Accord; Action Alliance; African Action Congress; African Democratic Congress; Action Democratic Party; All Progressive Congress; All Progressive Grand Alliance; Allied Peoples Movement; All People’s Party; Boot Party; Labour Party;New Nigeria Peoples Party; National Rescue Movement; Peoples Democratic Party; Peoples Redemption Party; Social Democratic Party; Young Progressives Party and Zenith Labour Party.

At the inauguration of the 10th National Assembly in June 2023, while the ruling party had the highest number of lawmakers both at the Senate and House of Representatives, the other parties also had numbers that could have formidable blocs.

In the senate, the APC won 57 seats while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) won 29 seats. The Labour Party (LP) won six seats; Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) won two seats each while the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and the Young Progressives Party (YPP) also got one seat each.

In the Green Chamber, APC won 162 seats, followed by the PDP which won 102 seats and LP, 34; NNPP,18;APGA ,4; while African Democratic Congress (ADC) and SDP won two seats each; and the YPP, one seat.

But barely two years after, the number of opposition legislators in both the Senate and the House has dwindled considerably with the ruling party as the biggest beneficiary of the defections.

While groups like Democrats blame the ruling party, especially the president for the defections, some say it is a normal occurrence since no one was coerced into doing so.

The group which has members like Richard Akinnola; Abdul Mahmud; Dr Sam Amadi; Auwa Ibrahim Musa (Rasfajani)! Nnimmo Bassey ;Adeola Soetan; Osa Director, Prof Adele Jinadu; Sen Babafemi Ojudu; Abubakar Siddique Mohammed; Prof Chidi Odinkalu! Chief Tola Adeniyi; Dr Jibrin Ibrahim Femi Aborisade and others observed that, “The pattern is disturbingly clear: an invitation by the EFCC for questioning on financial impropriety is swiftly followed by political capitulation. This weaponization of state institutions for partisan gain corrodes public trust and undermines the integrity of our democracy.”

 

Presidency’s response

The presidency while responding described the Democrats as “partisan human rights crusaders and emergency defenders of democracy.”

A statement by the Special Adviser to the President on information and strategy, Bayo Onanuga, denied the claim that the president is promoting a one-party state.

“Contrary to the false claims in the propaganda materials in circulation across mainstream and social media, democracy is not under any threat in Nigeria. Accusations that the administration is moving towards authoritarianism are baseless and exaggerated.

“The opposition cannot blame President Tinubu and the governing APC for their poor organisation, indiscipline, and gross incompetence in managing their affairs. It is certainly not part of President Tinubu’s job to organise or strengthen opposition parties.

“We want to state that democracy is not threatened or undermined simply because politicians exercise their rights to freedom of association. Nigerians migrating to the APC and expressing support for Tinubu are doing so out of their free will, based on the belief that the reforms being executed are in the interest of Nigerians and the unborn generation,” he said.

 

Others react

Political analyst, Ikoro N Ikoro, said what is happening can only be blamed on the state if the opposition members are being coerced to collapse the structures of their parties.

“If we run a system that says if you are not in the APC, then development cannot come to your area, then that is clearly unconstitutional. The Nigerian constitution, the laws and the federal character principle have been created to make sure that everybody will get what is due to them, “ he said.

Another lawyer, Dayo Akinlaja (SAN) said he does not believe that Nigeria is moving towards a one-party state.

“I do not share the view that we are tending towards a party state. In my honest view, there is still a long way between now and 2027. 

“So, it is still early in the day to conclude that there is unity of purpose in the ruling party. Dynamics change often, and political exigency never cease to throw up all manner of political configurations. It is safe to wait with bated breath in ‘siddon look’ posture.

“The unfolding situation, however, bespeaks the reality that party partisanship is a matter of survival rather than dictate of conviction in our clime,” he stated.

 

Why they move

The defections according to observers is for the politicians to secure their tenure in 2027, so they’ll be guaranteed both party tickets and support during the general elections.

Other factors include the local politics playing out in their immediate constituencies.

Some say there is also the ‘Godfather factor’ where politicians are compelled to move when their principals move as it happened in Delta State when the governor moved.

But almost all have blamed the weakened opposition and crises in the various parties.

 

Background to overbearing attitude of ruling parties

In the 1st Republic, the opposition parties were quite vibrant holding government to account, though there were attempts by the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) to overwhelm the other parties which led to the crisis in Benue province and in the Western region.

But the winner takes all presidential system of government has been blamed for not giving the opposition parties a breather.

After winning the 1979 elections, the ruling NPN did not spare the opposition parties to the extent that it was accused of deporting the majority leader of the Borno State House of Assembly, Shugaba Abdulrahman Darman of the Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) to weaken the opposition.

By 1983, not only Borno, but other states like Gongola, Oyo, Kaduna, Anambra, also fell under the grip of the ruling party.

The difference was that the opposition was united and were forging alliances to challenge the NPN until the military sacked the 2nd Republic in December 1983.

When the nation returned to democracy in 1999 the PDP which won the presidential election became so big that it was seen as the only viable platform to win elections.

 

Current situation ahead 2027

Of the 36 state governors, the APC has four in the South-west; South-South, three; while the fourth, Akwa Ibom is being expected, South-east ( two); North-central, (four), North-east (three) and the North-west has five.

With this, analysts say the APC has the needed geographic spread to pull what the NPN achieved in 1983 when it won what was described as landslide victory by winning one state -Oyo- in the South- west, one in the South-east-Anambra and was sitting comfortably in all the three states of what is now known as South-south – Bendel, Rivers and Cross River- in addition to what it had in the North.

Analysts say this is a great electoral advantage for the APC, especially in the presidential elections as it gives it the much needed spread to win.

But the implication, according to the Democrats, is that Nigeria risks returning to a culture of impunity, where the absence of opposition breeds arrogance and unaccountable governance.

 “We jeopardize the federal character of our democracy by suffocating the diversity of voices and interests that make up our republic. We stifle the political space for young Nigerians to organize, question, and contribute to the national discourse,” it stated.

There are also analysts who say that even if there is no official declaration that only one party can and should take part in elections in Nigeria, a situation where most parties are stripped of their structures and all relevant stakeholders are domiciled in one party, the country can be termed a one party state.

 

Role of INEC

Incidentally, since 2023, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has not de-deregistered any political party as it had done in the past.

In 2012, INEC deregistered 28 political parties, and the then chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, justified the commission’s action citing the provisions of section 78 (7) (ii) of the Electoral Act 2010 as amended, which empowers INEC to deregister parties following the breach of any of the requirements for registration and failure to make any impact in the elections.

After the 2019 elections, INEC also deregistered 74 political parties for failing to “satisfy the requirements” of continued registration based on their poor performances during the elections.

Though this has not happened under the current administration, there are allegations that the defections may not altogether be spontaneous as the state may be using other instruments of coercion like the anti-graft agencies to whip ‘strong’ opposition members into line. 

 

The opposition

Leader of the Labour Party caucus in the House of Representatives,  Afam Ogene, says there’s nothing new or surprising about it, adding, “it’s simply about survival.

“What we’ll probably do is to firm up the laws. The constitutional review process is ongoing. Like I pointed out, the only drawback is that those that think that it is in their favour today will not allow radical and progressive changes to be made. 

“But we’ll keep putting it on the agenda. The more we speak about it, the more it begins to get into the consciousness of people. So even if we don’t get it right now, in the coming years, I am sure that some more victories will be won and democracy will keep thriving.”