Is Nigeria’s economy improving?
Yusuf Olatunji Ibrahim, an auto mechanic in Ilorin, Kwara State, has been in the business of fixing faulty automobiles for years and has been using the resources he gets from his workshop to cater for himself and his family. He, however, said that the past few months have been the worst since he started work […]
food
Yusuf Olatunji Ibrahim, an auto mechanic in Ilorin, Kwara State, has been in the business of fixing faulty automobiles for years and has been using the resources he gets from his workshop to cater for himself and his family.
He, however, said that the past few months have been the worst since he started work as a mechanic as what he earns can barely take care of his basic needs.
“We are just managing to survive and practically experiencing what it means to be living from hand to mouth”, he said.
Ibrahim is not alone. A survey conducted by our correspondents across the country showed that while there are official reports of economic growth based on certain indices, it has hardly reflected on the lives of citizens.
Within the last one month, there have been reports of crash in the prices of food items like beans, rice and vegetables even with the onset of the month of Ramadan when demands for food items usually shoot up leading to increases in the prices of various items.
Our correspondents confirm that the prices of food items have gone down in deed in major cities and towns across the country.
Within the period also, major marketers of petroleum products like the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and the Dangote Group separately announced reductions in the pump price of petrol, which ordinarily should have translated into a decrease in fares and cost of transported goods.
Dangote’s petrol price, for instance, dropped to N815 in Lagos. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) also confirmed a stabilisation in the exchange rate, which was between N1,450 and N1,500 within the same period.
Purchasing power eroded
Citizen Ibrahim and others who spoke with our correspondents, however, said they do not see the correlation between what the government is reporting and what they are experiencing.
This, according to findings, is because the purchasing power of the average citizen has dwindled while the cost of living has gone up.
Basic needs like feeding, transportation and rents, which were paid for with relative ease in the past, have become difficult tasks.
Facts on the ground
The Catholic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria (CBCN), rising from its recent plenary, also observed that the nation is at a critical juncture due to worsening socio-economic hardship and insecurity.
In a communiqué issued following their First Plenary Meeting of 2025, the bishops while acknowledging progress in the petroleum sector, road rehabilitation, student loans, a new minimum wage, and debt reduction efforts, stated that these gains have been overshadowed by severe economic hardship, food inflation, and insecurity.
“Despite recent positive developments, Nigeria faces serious challenges, including socio-economic hardship, insecurity, rising youth unemployment, and high costs of essential goods. We urge all to pursue unity and national integration. Political, religious, and traditional leaders must foster hope and development,” the bishops stated in the communiqué and emphasised the need for investment in agriculture to address food shortages, rising costs, and unemployment in the country.
Experts speak
A foremost economist and Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, however, said the economy is improving because the country is beginning to see a lot of positive developments around some major macroeconomic indicators which include the exchange rate.
He said: “Between July 2024 and now, we have seen some relative stability, unlike what we saw in the first half of 2024 or the second half of 2023. You know, exchange rate was very volatile during those periods. But in the last few months, we have seen some stability”.
Mallam Hassan Ahmad, who teaches economics at the Sa’adatu Rimi College of Education, shares a contrary view as he explained that a reduction in the prices of petrol, cooking gas and dollar stabilisation are not by any way indices that show economic growth of a nation.
He said the question to ask is: what are the reasons behind the reductions and stabilisations? Are they deliberate or they just happened naturally? He said that in simple terms, economic growth refers to an increase in aggregate production in an economy, which generally manifests as a rise in national income.
“What would you say in a situation where not only national, but even the states are collecting international loans? Indeed, there is a need for us to systematically and professionally look inward to address and review our economic policies,” he said.
Inflation figures
Data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that the inflation rate has been fluctuating.
By February, 2024, it rose to 31.70 per cent and then 33.20 per cent in March before it increased to 33.69 per cent in April.
In May, it recorded a marginal increase to 33.95 per cent and it maintained the same trajectory to 34.19 per cent in June.
By July, it began to cool off with a reduction to 33.40 per cent with the same momentum maintained in August as it recorded 32.15 per cent. But the downward streak stopped by September as the figure rose marginally to 32.70 per cent.
October also saw an increase to 33.88 per cent as well as November which recorded 34.60 per cent, peaking at 34.80 per cent by December.
However, the figure dropped to 24.48 per cent in January 2025 after the NBS rebased the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to reflect an update on the consumer basket used to compute the changes in price of commodities.
For food commodities, the figure was 35.41 per cent in January 2024 and it increased to 37.92 per cent in February of the same year. March also saw an increase to 40.01 per cent while April recorded 40.53 per cent.
By May last year, there was a marginal drop to 40.66 per cent and further increased to 40.87 per cent in June, before it dropped to 39.53 per cent in July.
A minute drop was observed in August as it recorded 37.52 per cent while it increased to 37.77 per cent in September and 39.16 per cent in October. November of the same year recorded 39.93 per cent.
In December, it dropped to 39.84 per cent while it further went down to 26.08 per cent in January following the rebasing of the CPI.
Businesses hard hit
A report by the Nigerian Economic Sunmit Group (NESG) indicates that over seven million businesses shut down in Nigeria in the two years of the current administration.
The report, according to Dr. Segun Omisakin, Chief Economist and Director of Research at the NESG, says during this period, Nigeria recorded an estimated N94 trillion loss due to multinational divestments and business closures and that the economic downturn has led to the closure of approximately 7.2 million businesses between 2023 and 2024.
He said additionally, 30% of Nigeria’s 24 million Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) shut down during this period, underscoring the country’s economic vulnerability.
But President Bola Ahmed Tinubu last Thursday, while receiving a delegation of former National Assembly colleagues, explained that Nigeria has started benefitting from the reforms he introduced.
He said: “We faced serious headwinds when I took over; very challenging times. Nigeria would have been bankrupt if we had not taken the actions that we took, and we had to prevent the economy’s collapse.
“Today, we are sitting pretty on a good foundation. We have reversed the problem; the Exchange rate is stabilising. Food prices are coming down, especially during Ramadan. We will have light at the end of the tunnel”, he said.
Nigerians disagree with FG, say economy not improving
Some Nigerians who spoke with our correspondents expressed divergent views on the state of the economy.
Mr. Sunday Bashir Sotec is an entrepreneur and a proprietor of a fashion outfit in Kano. According to him, the purchasing power of almost everyone in the fashion industry has deflated due to various economic challenges. He explained that many people in the business have switched to other businesses.
He explained that though one may have the same capital, the purchasing power has been weakened by the high cost of materials.
“Two years ago, gum-stare sold at N200, but it is now selling at N500 and strive-collar sold at N600 but is now selling at N1, 800. These developments have taken a toll on our capital and our purchasing power crippled,” he said.
Alhaji Shazali Yahaya Sani, a car dealer who claimed to have been in the business for over three decades, said the purchasing power of almost every business entity has been negatively affected.
According to him, a car which sold for N500,000 years ago is now selling at over N4 million. He said many in the car selling business are no more practicing because they lack the purchasing power to continue the business.
Another businessman that deals in basic commodities at Singer Market, Alhaji Abdulrahman Daluwa, said many people have been forced to change their businesses to what their capital can accommodate.
“Check the market and you will understand what I am saying; you will see people with little wares in their shops and if you ask them you will find out that their capital is still the same only that it can’t buy them what it used to buy a few years ago. It is almost everywhere and no thanks to the global economic crisis,” he said.
For Amina Ahmadu, she decried that despite the reduction in the prices of some food items, there is no money to purchase them. She said income has not improved to match the current economic situation.
Adebisi Kadiri-Abimbola from Ijebu-Ode said: “The economy is getting worse by the day; the government is not making enough effort to curb hardship in the economy. The cost of living is high; people are struggling to survive each day.
“No sector of the economy is improving. Workers are not getting paid. Rent is high; feeding is expensive. The people suffering the hardship more are the low class, people die of starvation every day.
“The prices of food items have skyrocketed; people cannot afford them. How do you go to the market with a budget but return home with sadness? That’s the state of the economy under the current government”, she said.
She said many business owners run at loss. “In a nutshell, the prices of items are high. People are no more living but survival instincts have set in for everyone. Most people just survive everyday as it comes without hope of where there next meal is coming from because they cannot afford it”, she added.
A resident of Lagos, Sarimakin Miracle said: “I do not agree with the government. If the economy is truly improving, people would feel the impact in their daily lives. Sadly, the reality tells a different story—prices of essential goods remain high, and many households continue to struggle. The government’s claims don’t align with the experiences of the average citizen.”
Ndigwe Stephanie, another resident of Ojodu, Lagos, said it was “totally false” that the economy is improving.
“Secondly, I’m not going to start listing all the main points because it’s general knowledge for everyone on what those things are but while official statements suggest economic improvements, the live experiences of many Nigerians like me reflect ongoing struggles with inflation, food insecurity, and a declining standard of living. The disparity between governmental claims and citizens’ realities reveals that the purported economic advancements have yet to translate into tangible benefits for the broader population.”
In Maiduguri, Mr Tafida Johnson, a worker at a private organisation, said since President Tinubu assumed office and announced subsidy removal, the economic situation has been dwindling.
“You know, food prices depend on the cost of transportation which has direct link to the subsidy.
“I have a large family and before the Tinubu administration, I was using N100,000 to shop monthly. Now, only a bag of rice takes away the whole money.
“A loaf of bread, which we used to buy at N700 is now N2,000, and a crate of egg shot up from 2,000 to over N6,000,” he said.
He lamented that despite the situation, some workers were yet to receive the new minimum wage.
“Before the Tinubu administration, I spent N350, 000 on the payment of school fees for two persons in secondary school and two others in the university. But last month, I spent N520,000 to settle the same fees”, he said.
Bitrus Ayub, another resident of Maiduguri, said there is slight economic improvement in the country compared to what was obtained two years ago.
“Food prices have gone down, which indicates a slight economic improvement. We now buy things at lesser cost with the little earnings.
“But my salary has remained the same under the inflationary situation. What I’m being paid cannot buy me one third of what I bought during the previous administrations.
“In fact, the food stuff I used to buy can’t take me a week compared to the previous years.
“On feeding, I used to spend N500, N700 and at most N800 for a meal, but I now spend N2, 000 on average for just a meal.
“So, for one to eat three square meals, he has to spend nothing less than N5, 000 daily,” he said.
More Nigerians speak
For residents of Benue State, the inflation and some policies of government have made nonsense of their earnings. Some of them who spoke to our correspondent lamented their struggle to make ends meet.
Jennifer Hilejime, a first-class economics graduate and teacher decried the deepening financial strain on Nigerians like her due to inflation, currency depreciation, among others.
She noted that while location affects price variations, the broader economic hardship stems from factors like rising transportation costs, unpredictable market prices, and increasing healthcare expenses, saying that there was a need for policies that would support low-income earners.
Hilejime recalled that in 2023, she could comfortably live on N150,000 monthly, spending just N25,000 on transportation, stressing that today, over N100,000 is required for the same expenses.
“Unlike in previous years when a portion of my income could be set aside for investment, today, every Naira is stretched thin just to cover essential needs; transportation, healthcare, and family. With no savings, financial security is compromised, and the broader economic implication is dire (since savings drive investment, and investment is a crucial factor in economic growth) and a declining savings culture signals long-term economic stagnation,” she added.
Similarly, Tertsea Benga, a public servant, lamented the drastic decline in purchasing power, expressing concern that basic necessities like food, housing, and healthcare have become unaffordable and eroding the standard of living.
Benga emphasised the need for government’s intervention, including inflation control, wage adjustments, and job creation while urging policymakers to implement inclusive economic strategies to bridge the wealth gap and support the majority of struggling Nigerians.
A resident of Ilọrin and phone dealer, Mr. Martins Obiora, who decried the situation, said the present administration has forced Nigerians to re-prioritise their preferences.
“Our purchasing power has drastically reduced and the wisdom now is to consider only spending on vital things. Now we use a scale of preference to buy every other item from groceries to foodstuff and every other household item and family needs, wants and expenses.
“Failure to adopt this measure will seriously deplete our individual economy. Before, we used to buy things in bulk and stock the house with items, but that is no longer the case. Although, it appears things are slowly picking up and that is only if it continues in this trajectory without any negative disruption.
Mr. Obiora advised the government to do everything possible to improve the situation of the youths in the country to take them away from crime to become assets for the country.
Nigeria moving in right direction – Presidency
On Monday, March 11, 2025, the Presidency said the Nigerian economy was moving in the right direction under the administration of President Tinubu.
The Special Adviser to the president on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, said this in reaction to remarks by the Catholic Bishops’ Conference.
Mr Onanuga said the conference “gave an alarming prognosis of the state of the economy and the polity that sounded more like snippets from an outdated book.”
According to him: “In his opening address, CBCN President Archbishop Lucius Iwejuru listed youth unemployment, insecurity, poverty, corruption, and electoral fraud as some of the ills plaguing the country.
“He demanded quick action from leaders nationwide to stop the country from drifting.”
The presidential aide said that Tinubu appreciated the constant interventions of the Catholic Bishops in matters of governance in the country.
“While some of the governance challenges in the areas highlighted by the Bishops remain, it is important to state categorically that our country has made tremendous progress in all areas since Tinubu assumed office 22 months ago.
“In terms of insecurity, Nigeria is more secure today than it was in 2023, thanks to our military and other security agencies and the strong leadership provided by President Tinubu as the Commander-in-Chief,” he said.
“As a result of improved security in our communities, especially in the North-West and the North-East, farmers have returned to their farms, and our country has seen increased food production, which is currently driving down prices of essential commodities.
“Farmers in Kaduna, Kebbi and Jigawa are eloquent testimonies of the improved security ambience,” he said.
He said Tinubu’s administration had stabilised the economy from the precarious situation it inherited on assumption of office.
“Our local refining capacity has tremendously increased on the back of Dangote Refinery and NNPCL Refineries in Port Harcourt and Warri, which is going on stream.
“Realising the importance of youth to national development and economic growth, President Tinubu’s administration has designed programmes that will catalyse youth employment, enhance their capability, and harness their ingenuity, creativity, and talents for better productivity.
“These programmes, including 3MTT, NATEP, LEEP, IDiCE, NiYA, and the Nigerian Youth Investment Fund, were designed to create over 10 million new jobs for young people,” he said.
And while giving a prognosis on low purchasing power, Onanuga had while featuring on a programme on Channels Television, on Tuesday, February 25, advised Nigerians to seek additional sources of income as a way out of the economic situation.
He said: “Find something else to augment your income. You cannot live on one income. If you find a farm land near you, cultivate it; grow your crops, so that it can reduce your expenses and so on.
“These are practical things you can do to survive the present economy, people just have to find solutions on their own to do this”, he said.
History will judge Tinubu favourably – Information minister
Speaking at an international conference on Thursday, the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, said that President Tinubu is steering the affairs of Nigeria with the utmost fear of God and a deep conviction that history will judge his administration favourably.
He said the reforms being implemented by the president are not just well-intentioned but are essential for the growth and development of the nation.
“Let me say that we have crossed the Rubicon, and the pains are gradually easing as the positive impact of these reforms begins to manifest. Already, we are witnessing a marked reduction in food prices, stability in exchange rates, and a gradual decline in the cost of petroleum products, which are clear indicators that the reforms are yielding positive results,” he said.
“Our country stands at a critical juncture as President Tinubu implements bold and transformative reforms to lay the foundation for a new Nigeria. Across the world, history has shown that meaningful reforms are never easy; they demand sacrifice, resilience, and a commitment to long-term progress. The initial pains that often accompany these changes are the necessary price for a more stable and prosperous future,” he said.
Contributions from: Mumini Abdulkareem, Ilorin, Hope Abah, Makurdi, Hamisu Matazu, Maiduguri, Adebayo Gbenga, Lagos & Abdul Abdullahi, Kano