Is this opposition dependable?

No doubt, to wrestle power from the hands of very desperate government in position requires much more than the personality or popularity of any individual politician in a dynamic federal set up like the one we have. The PDP we all know has often bragged without any iota of humility that they will rule Nigeria […]

No doubt, to wrestle power from the hands of very desperate government in position requires much more than the personality or popularity of any individual politician in a dynamic federal set up like the one we have. The PDP we all know has often bragged without any iota of humility that they will rule Nigeria for the next sixty years.

I know just like millions of our countrymen do that that claim is what in political mischief we call balderdash. The PDP’s claim has never been based on the quality of service that they have given to Nigerians since 1999, but the deception of the unclear mirror of brute force and tyranny with which they rule Nigeria. The claim has been mentioned often out of the jitters arising from the hate and boredom which Nigerians see this helpless scenario.

I am an antagonist of zoning because I know that in western liberal democratic contraption such as the one that we try to practice in Nigeria, the majority will always have its way while the minority is at the least expected to have its say. The meaning of this is that those who are in the majority mustn’t shamefully be the ones to insist on power rotation, but I appreciate the circumstances that led the North into this unfortunate political cul-de-sac.

The proceeds of zoning are what have elevated Goodluck Jonathan to his current position. An abject minority even within his minority state of Bayelsa who today sits on top of 140 million of us and our resources. The accident of politics and weak political institutions and structures gave rise to this reality to the extent that the few are looking down on the more and insisting that they must be and their will must prevail.

Those especially from the North that opposed the tyranny of incumbency saw a good opportunity in an alliance between the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and the Congress for Progress Change (CPC). It was very clear that given the strides of the ACN in the South West, the most politically homogenous region of Nigeria and  the populism of Muhammadu Buhari in the north-west, the most populous of the six geo-political zones in the country and the north-east which has the third highest voting force in the country, what will be needed at the end of the election will merely be the need for augmentation of the 1/3 votes cast in some other states to ensure victory for that alliance.

With that alliance in place, it is guaranteed that Nigerians would change the PDP federal government in the first ballot and very clearly too. Unfortunately, the egg heads in the CPC we understand are thinking otherwise. They believe they can win elections and take over power from a vicious cabal like the PDP in tea party fashion.

The hand writing is very clear, there is no way either the ACN or CPC can go it alone to victory on April 8. It will be a difficult enterprise. The reason being that the failure of a possible alliance between these two opposition parties is likely to sway votes in favor of the incumbents, because those who are apprehensive both from the south-west and North would have more zeal and confidence to vote for the alliance with the guarantee that they are voting the PDP out.

The failure of the alliance on the other hand reduces the vigor and confidence of millions of citizens who desire the change of flag and guards in Aso Rock and may not vote the way of the individual parties, which definitely endangers the possibilities of their victory.

My worry here is that why are those who claim to be struggling for power so shallow when it comes to simple political chess game? Who told CPC that they can wrestle power form the PDP by the sheer mass appeal of their presidential candidate? What is necessary at times like this is collaboration amongst like minds in order to remove a cancer from the body.

I know the strategic politics of the south-west, they are not always hell bent on taking power at the centre. They are often contented with the states in their zone and a few more extensions. Their politics has always been sophisticated and assuring due to many factors. This is not the case with the rest of the North especially.

Yes, there may be mass appeal for particular candidates, but that may not translate into votes during elections. The calculation is different as is the case in the south- west where peer pressure is an important element of political mobilization, more so now that Goodluck Jonathan has gone there and insulted their leaders.

Yes, their leaders. Anyone who knows who the leaders of the south-west are knows very well that the Obasanjos are not the leaders but the Tinibus and Akandes are. It is not likely therefore that the region will ever revert to the PDP mess, may be not in the near future.

I think those in opposition need to take a more practical lesson on the likely outcome of the April elections in Nigeria if they are to make any meaningful impact during the exercise. There is no way either of the major parties can go it alone without forging alliances with others. Or, are they telling us that they will go to elections first and if there is a runoff, then, they can make compromises and support a candidate? This is a tragedy because there may be no second ballot in the first place because the president may be elected on the first ballot and all that will follow will be complaints and lamentation.

This is certainly not good politics and Nigerians, majority of whom desire a change, are definitely sad that the opposition is proving to be in disarray and therefore not dependable. It will be a tragedy if ego and false assumption denies Nigerians this golden opportunity to change the PDP government in Abuja.

All over the world, the liberal democratic contraption as we try to copy in this country thrives in the variety that politicians and parties are made of. It is not common to have one party hold on to power for more than three terms no matter how well it performs. What is permanent is change. This is only possible where the political forces are in tune with the realities of politics of the environment and not just basing thoughts and actions on myth and false assumptions.

I think the opposition groups in Nigeria are guilty of insensitivity. They are more arrogant than they properly understand the dynamics of electoral politics in the country. They are preparing to dash the hopes of millions of people who wish to support them to victory at very little cost.

It is a pity that that may be what we may have to contend with in April except if they have a rethink.