Kano’s 2027 fate will be decided in Abuja – Dr Hayatu
Dr Aminu Hayatu is a senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Bayero University, Kano. A political analyst with a vast knowledge of the state’s political culture and economy, Hayatu offers an assessment of the winners and losers in Gov. Abba Kabir Yusuf’s potential defection to the APC. He argues that for the […]
gov yusuf and kwankwaso
Dr Aminu Hayatu is a senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Bayero University, Kano. A political analyst with a vast knowledge of the state’s political culture and economy, Hayatu offers an assessment of the winners and losers in Gov. Abba Kabir Yusuf’s potential defection to the APC. He argues that for the 2027 governorship, the outcome will be determined not by the voters, but by an “outsider” in the person of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
From an analytical standpoint, how significant is Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf’s potential defection for Kano’s political architecture and what structural shifts in power would such a move likely trigger?
Certain states in Nigeria have their own peculiar political systems, and Kano is at the forefront of that list. Developments here do not happen suddenly; they are rooted in historical rivalries and power cycles. Currently, Kano is “politically pregnant,” and the outcome depends entirely on the moves of the primary players.
You have Senator Kwankwaso, the godfather of Gov. Abba Kabir Yusuf, on one side, and the APC stalwarts on the other. But the governor’s move is essentially a necessary one. He does not have an option because of the climate of uncertainty surrounding his candidacy within the NNPP. Rumours have long circulated that because of developments that ran counter to the interests of his political godfather, Kwankwaso has grown disenchanted. He is reportedly working underground to replace Abba in 2027. To escape this dilemma, the governor must find his way out.
Simultaneously, the federal centre is looking for any available option to pull Kano to its side. In the Nigerian power decider, Kano is a pillar alongside Rivers, Lagos, and Kaduna. President Tinubu is particularly interested in Kano because of the uncertainties he faces in smaller states.
While Abba’s decision is born of necessity, he is also facing an incredibly risky situation. The “big shots” in the APC are already eyeing that governorship seat, people like the Deputy Senate President and other heavyweights.
In politics, there are no permanent friends. If he crosses to the APC, he has no guarantee of being the flagbearer. Once he moves his structure and “decamps,” he has no power base to return to. He must abide by whatever the party decides. They could lure him into a primary election under the guise of a “level playing field,” only to replace him with someone Dr Abdullahi Ganduje would be happier with.
You’ve talked about personalities. In a realignment, how do you assess the relative strength of key actors such as Kwankwaso, Gov. Yusuf, Ganduje, and leading APC figures?
Kwankwaso will naturally throw his weight behind the opposition, possibly the ADC or a similar platform. He needs an existing structure to exploit and showcase his strength against the APC gladiators. He cannot remain in the NNPP because that party is in a running battle with an identity crisis:questions of logo ownership and party control currently in court. To overcome that, he needs a new platform.
Furthermore, we must address the judiciary. There are persistent allegations that judges will always favour the interests of the ruling party. This is why Kwankwaso must conclude that he needs to fight from another platform.
As for Ganduje, he had almost “gone to sleep” politically. However, this defection has reawakened him and made him relevant again. Being asked by the national party, alongside Abdullahi Abbas, to welcome Gov. Yusuf has repositioned him. It gives him back the political influence he lost when he was no longer the party leader. Even Kwankwaso has mentioned how apprehensive he is that Ganduje’s influence threatens his own. Ganduje is very cunning; he may take advantage of this move by one of Kwankwaso’s closest “boys” to launch a new assault on his rival.
Realignment typically creates winners and losers. Who do you see emerging on top?
One should expect that a party backed by the structure of state governance and the federal centre has the highest chance of winning. It is very difficult for Kwankwaso to fight when he does not have that machinery: the House of Representatives members, the Senators, the State Assembly, and the recently elected local government chairmen.
While people argue that Kwankwaso won in 2019 and 2023 without these structures, the reality is that those political machineries are the very people now in Gov. Yusuf’s government. They have now gone with him to the APC. That machinery is what Kwankwaso used in the past. Now, it will be a competition between Kwankwaso’s “boys” who are in political power against him, and the “boys” who do not have power but chose to remain with him.
Looking ahead to 2027, how might this alter succession politics in Kano?
For the first time, Kano is going to experience a political style influenced by a master strategist at the centre: President Tinubu. He silences opposition and uses political power to influence outcomes for his advantage. This is the “corny politics” we see in Rivers. Tinubu hardly fails when he applies these strategies because he has the resources, the power, and the skill.
Kano is almost certainly going back to the APC; Kwankwaso knows this. Even before he was president, Tinubu reportedly influenced the 2019 outcome in Kano where the APC was eventually declared winner after the PDP lead was muzzled. Now that he is the President, what else would you expect? That election will be manipulated. I say manipulated, not necessarily rigged, because manipulation happens in the pre-election periods to ensure a change in outcome.
Where does that put players like Barau Jibrin and Nasiru Gawuna?
It depends on Ganduje’s disposition. He has not been positive towards Barau. Ultimately, the President will determine the flagbearer. Ganduje and his team will try to convince the President that only a certain candidate can secure victory in Kano. They will find someone they can “sell” both to the President and the people. Ganduje believes in the use of raw power to capture power.
Gov. Yusuf will be lured into the APC, but once he steps in, he is going to be deceived and eventually dumped. He will not be the automatic choice. He lacks the political might to fight them from within. The only way he survives is if the President insists on keeping his word and makes him the candidate.
Finally, how do ordinary Kano voters interpret this? Does frequent defection weaken ideology and accountability?
I don’t think the elections in Kano this time around are about the voters. The elites have dominated the scene so thoroughly that it is all about their decision. The APC is reserving its energy and resources for 2027. We know what electoral politics looks like in Nigeria. You can preach to electorates for years not to succumb to elite pressure or vote-buying, but on election day, you will be disappointed. They will take the money and say, “What do you want us to eat to survive?” In the end, the will of the master strategist in Abuja will outweigh the choice of the voter in Kano.