Kolmani oil project: In the pipeline or buried?

Four years ago, we acknowledged that the jinx of oil exploration in the north had been broken, but has it? Then, the North celebrated, and many thought oil production in the region would become a reality in the near future. I was careful not to sound pessimistic, but I predicted that the commissioning of the […]

Four years ago, we acknowledged that the jinx of oil exploration in the north had been broken, but has it?

Then, the North celebrated, and many thought oil production in the region would become a reality in the near future. I was careful not to sound pessimistic, but I predicted that the commissioning of the Kolmani oil field was enough, and the public should be thankful. The story added spice to the elections, and the ruling party secured 62 per cent of its vote in the region. Many optimists hoped that the Kolmani oil field would begin production almost immediately.

But even back then, we raised concerns, mainly about the administration setting a timeline for when the Kolmani oil field would begin commercial activity. We warned that failure to do so could turn out to be just another white elephant project we are accustomed to in Nigeria.

This is one prediction I hoped would be wrong. The good thing is that, at least now, I can boast of telling the future without reading palms.

The Daily Trust even wrote an Editorial titled “We Welcome The Kolmani Oil Field In Northern Nigeria.” One of the suggestions urged the then administration to finalise all the legal and operational frameworks for the Kolmani oil field to take off before it leaves office. Looking back, the suggestions have proved to be a mountain to climb.

The project is looking more like many unfinished federal businesses. The Abuja-Kano motorway and Ajaokuta Steel Company are examples; Yar’adua’s dredging of the River Niger is another. The AKK pipeline has been reconfigured to stop at Gwagwalada, for the moment. No idea when it might get to Kaduna and Kano–the core North.

These are projects that would have provided jobs, secured lives and brought development to the North. Let us not forget that development in the North is equally a development for the country as a whole.

Politically speaking, a successful oil exploration will kill off the grumbles that the North is economically dependent on the South’s oil. The argument for resource control would then be discussed objectively, without any sense of entitlement.

On the economic side, the region is in a poverty trap. There are over 20 million people who are multidimensionally poor in the North East. Having one or two states join the list of oil-producing states will increase the region’s revenue. The region will attract more investment and jobs and have the potential to increase public welfare.

On a serious note, as we persist in the call for exploration in the North, we must be careful about the ecological consequences that may affect these states and the neighbouring states. The good thing is that the government can learn from the oil spillages in the Niger Delta and how the oil companies failed to address these issues. Unlike the southern part of the country, oil spillage in the North will have a bigger impact on Nigeria’s water along the Benue. Agriculture and the game reserves in places like Yankari will also be negatively impacted.

On an advisory level, this government must learn from the experience of raising people’s expectations, as was done in the last elections and under the previous government. If Tinubu ever wants to be considered a friend of the North, he must ensure the project is fully underway before the 2027 elections. It is one of the few things that can revive his popularity. But this unsolicited advice is based on the idea that he wants to include the North in his election strategy.

Those worried that the project would be linked to Buhari should recall that Nigeria has been drilling oil for 66 years, but many do not remember the President or Head of State who flagged off the project.

Thinking out loud, I would have liked to see the project begin with extracting the oil from Kolmani and transferring it to a refinery where we could see the end products. But with only one functioning refinery in the country, it would be difficult. Of course, the government needs time to build infrastructure such as pipelines, pump stations, roads, and oil tankers. Given that this is an election year, the luxury of time is quickly fading for the government.

In all seriousness, building a refinery is a four to six-year project in the Nigerian context. A current example is the Dangote Refinery project that took years to complete. Optimists would have expected a plan of less than 12 months, which sounds more like fantasy. In reality, it is becoming increasingly difficult to discount the pessimist’s theory that announcing this Kolmani project, back in 2023, was only done to woo the electorate ahead of the then elections. We can agree it served its purpose but it is now coming back to haunt the beneficiary—Tinubu.

To re-emphasise, every northerner would be genuinely excited if oil exploration were to happen in the region. In a world facing an energy price shock, success in oil and gas exploration in the region will yield many desirable outcomes. It will integrate the West African economy as anticipated by ECOWAS. The ECOWAS region will benefit from energy security, bring economic stability, and potentially end all socio-economic conflicts and terrorism.

Obviously, oil exploration will change Nigeria’s political dynamics, as the north will gain additional negotiating power and a growing population. Of course, these are mere blue-sky thinking until the oil drilling has taken off.

Regardless of what one thinks, if Tinubu wants to leave a positive Northern legacy, he must take a pragmatic approach to ensure production at the Kolmani oil field becomes a reality. Otherwise, history will only remember his government as the one that abandoned the Kolmani oil exploration project.