Kwali 2016: Will Ibrahim Daniel break the jinx?

Political activities have gathered momentum ahead of the March 19, 2016 council election in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Candidates vying for positions in the election are holding rallies and campaigns across the six area councils and seeking to win voters over. In Kwali Area Council, three main candidates are vying for the chairmanship position […]

Political activities have gathered momentum ahead of the March 19, 2016 council election in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Candidates vying for positions in the election are holding rallies and campaigns across the six area councils and seeking to win voters over.
In Kwali Area Council, three main candidates are vying for the chairmanship position on the platforms of different political parties. The incumbent, Ibrahim Daniel, is flying the seemingly tattered flag of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) while Mr. Joseph Shazin is standing on the platform of the governing All Progressives Congress (APC). The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) is fielding Mr. Danlami Saleh Yebu.
 Political analysts are of the view that Daniel of the PDP is one of the best performing council chairmen in the FCT and re-electing him for a second term would have been a certainty, but no person has ever won the council election for a second term.
  So the question on the lips of many is whether Daniel is on the brink of making history by breaking the Kwali jinx.
 The other two candidates present a formidable challenge to the incumbent’s ambition. The APC candidate, Shazhin, a former acting chairman of the council, is Daniel’s main challenger. Observers say he is banking on the good fortune of the ruling party’s change mantra at the federal government level.  
 For those who are versed in Kwali politics, it is going to be one of the keenly contested council elections in the whole of the FCT.
 Analysts see a straight fight between Daniel and Shazhin but have outlined factors that may work in favour of or against both candidates.
History doesn’t seem to be on the side of Daniel, but competence and above-average performance seem to be his strongest attributes. Some analysts believe that he has a tough battle on his hands considering that since the inception of the council in 1997, no elected chairman has successfully ended his first tenure and gone for a second term, right from the time of the late Samuel Gwomna.
 The issues of religion and ethnicity are not factors in the Kwali election as all the three contenders are Christians and of the Gbagyi-Nkwa ethnic group.
 Incidentally, all the candidates have tasted the leadership of the council in one capacity or another.
 The late Gwomna, who successfully ended his first tenure on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) from 1999 to 2003, and won a second term, was unfortunately assassinated by suspected gunmen. The APGA candidate, Danlami Yebu, who was appointed acting chairman, went ahead to complete the second term of Gwomma.
 In the 2010 area council election, Yebu contested on the platform of the PDP while Shazhin contested on the ticket of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and won.
 Shazhin sought for re-election in 2013 on the platform of the ANPP but was defeated by the incumbent chairman and candidate of the PDP.
 Observers believe that the desire of the incumbent chairman of the council, Ibrahim Daniel to seek re-election would have been a reality, but Yebu has put his chances in jeopardy.
 Many consider Yebu as a spoiler in the election, arguing that even though he has a vast experience in local council politics, his platform, APGA, is not viable enough to win the APC and PDP.
 There is no doubt that the electorate are concerned about who governs them at this point in time, and Kwali voters will scrutinise the political antecedents of all the three main candidates.
 Despite the fact that Shazhin, who also had a decent record in office and now riding on the crest of goodwill from the masses and the general perception that his party abhors corruption and would do everything to subdue it, observers still believe that Daniel is the candidate to beat.
 They believe that the PDP-led administration performed well, especially in the area of infrastructural development across rural communities.
 They say Daniel has touched various sectors such agriculture and education through the provision of scholarships to indigent students learning at various tertiary institutions and some students learning overseas.
 It is also believed that free medical services, including eye surgery the chairman offered to over 4,000 patients, the provision of 11 brand new commuter Hiace buses to all junior secondary schools in the council, and the construction of Dafa-Gwomani-Tungan Sarki box culvert, as well as the construction Yangoji-Dafa road, with asphalt overlay, would swing a lot of votes in his favour.
 They added that incumbency factor and his large financial strength, as well as the fact that the FCT PDP chairman, Alhaji Yahaya Suleiman, is an indigene of the area, will bolster his chances at the poll.
 But other political observers believe that accessibility factor and federal might would have given the candidate of the ruling APC, Joseph Shazhin, the confidence that he would win come March 19.
 The APC candidate had, shortly after he picked the party’s ticket, boasted before journalists that the APC would take over government in the March 19 council election.
 He said he was at the helm of affairs when the incumbent chairman pushed him aside, and he would also push him aside.
 Observers believe that the APC candidate has the upper hand in the tight race because he was easily accessible when he was chairman, but the incumbent, though he has recorded a lot of achievements, appears to be snobbish. They said his areas of stronghold would be the Kwali central ward, which has over 10, 000 voters, and Wako, Kilankwa and Gwomani wards.    
 The APGA candidate, according to political observers, will share votes with other candidates across the 10 wards, which they believe may likely affect the chances of the incumbent chairman.
 Analysts have said that the APGA candidate, who was a staunch member of the PDP and a former speaker and acting chairman of the council, went and picked the APGA ticket when he sensed that he was not going to wrestle the PDP ticket from the incumbent chairman. It is widely believed that he is out to frustrate the bid of the PDP candidate.
Interested political observers are anxiously waiting to see how the game plays out during the March 19, 2016 poll.