Kwara: Can Saraki profit from APC cracks?

When Kwarans voted overwhelmingly for the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2019 under the now-famous O-to-ge slogan, they were not merely electing a new government. They dismantled a political dynasty that had shaped the state’s politics for more than four decades. The movement—driven by a coalition of politicians, professionals, civil society groups, and political actors, […]

When Kwarans voted overwhelmingly for the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2019 under the now-famous O-to-ge slogan, they were not merely electing a new government. They dismantled a political dynasty that had shaped the state’s politics for more than four decades.

The movement—driven by a coalition of politicians, professionals, civil society groups, and political actors, among other voters—united around a single objective: to end the dominance of the Saraki political structure.

The coalition succeeded beyond expectations.

Bukola Saraki lost his senatorial seat and, by extension, the Senate Presidency. His party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), also lost all national and state assembly seats in Kwara. The APC won the governorship and secured overwhelming control of the state’s political landscape.

For many observers, it marked the end of an era.

Seven years later, however, Kwara politics appears to be coming full circle—not because Saraki has suddenly become invincible, but because the political circumstances that dismantled his structure are gradually shifting. 

Ironically, some of the factors that worked against him in 2019 are now beginning to favour him, while the strengths that made the APC almost unbeatable are being severely tested.

Perhaps, for the first time since his historic defeat, Saraki has a realistic opportunity to rebuild.

PDP consolidation and strategic moves

The first indication lies within the PDP itself. For months, the opposition battled leadership disputes that distracted it from preparing for the 2027 elections. 

Instead of confronting the ruling APC, party leaders spent valuable time contesting legitimacy, leadership, and control. 

In Kwara, this instability led to an exodus of several Saraki loyalists, as well as stakeholders inherited from his late father.

That uncertainty has now largely eased.

With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recognizing the leadership and candidates backed by Saraki’s camp, the decision climaxed the consolidation and rebranding that the former Senate President had embarked upon in the build-up to 2027.

The emergence of Engr. Suleiman Bolakale Kawu from Kwara Central as the party’s governorship candidate appears to have triggered concern within the APC due to the voting strength of the zone. For the first time in years, the PDP appears united behind one structure—a unity that may prove to be one of Saraki’s greatest political assets.

Equally significant is the reconciliation between Saraki and his younger sister, Senator Gbemisola Saraki. For years, their political differences reflected one of the most symbolic fractures within Kwara’s most influential political family.

Although Senator Gbemisola remains in the APC and continues to contribute to the party at the national level—largely due to her ongoing disagreements with Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq—the restoration of cordial family relations removes an emotional and political fault line that opponents frequently exploited as evidence of a divided Saraki family.

Whether this reconciliation translates directly into votes remains to be seen, but its symbolic weight is undeniable.

The opposition has also demonstrated tactical awareness. The choice of Rev. Cornelius Fawenu as the deputy governorship candidate has been described by supporters and observers as a strategic move. Beyond completing the ticket, the nomination addresses regional and religious balance while expanding the opposition’s electoral appeal. 

Within political circles, the decision reportedly triggered fresh calculations within the APC, where some stakeholders privately acknowledged that the opposition had executed a smart maneuver capable of altering the race’s dynamics.

Cracks in the APC coalition

Yet, if Saraki’s prospects appear brighter today, the more compelling explanation lies within the APC itself.

The ruling party that swept to power in 2019 was held together by a common target. It was never merely a political party; it was a movement. The O-to-ge coalition brought together politicians from different backgrounds—former Saraki loyalists, political newcomers, and long-standing rivals—under one banner.

Once that objective was accomplished, however, preserving the coalition proved far more difficult.

The contest to succeed Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq exposed those latent fractures. 

The governorship primary was among the most fiercely contested in the party’s history. Long before delegates voted, distinct political camps had formed across the state.

Initially, the governor appeared to favor Ambassador Yahaya Seriki as his preferred successor before a last-minute shift. Others rallied behind Speaker Yakubu Danladi Salihu. Meanwhile, former APC chairman Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa (BOB) maintained a formidable political structure, and Senator Saliu Mustapha’s growing influence added another layer of complexity.

When Speaker Danladi eventually secured the party’s ticket, celebrations erupted among his supporters. But beneath the fanfare lay deep disappointment, giving rise to the “G15”—a group of aggrieved aspirants and party leaders with established structures, loyal supporters, and substantial electoral value. Collectively, they represent a significant portion of the coalition that powered the APC’s historic 2019 victory.

According to the G15, the process that produced the Speaker failed to reflect the spirit of fairness and broad consultation. Consequently, they petitioned the APC national leadership, insisting that the primary dispute remains unresolved.

The quest for reconciliation

Recognizing the potential fallout, the APC leadership initiated reconciliation efforts. 

A committee headed by retired Colonel Ademola Lawal was constituted to engage aggrieved stakeholders and restore unity before campaigns fully kick off.

Governor AbdulRazaq has also intensified consultations with party leaders while publicly projecting confidence in the Speaker’s candidacy. The Speaker was subsequently presented to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and received by the Emir of Ilorin—moves widely interpreted as efforts to reinforce confidence and signal that the party stands firmly behind him.

Yet, these symbolic gestures have not fully silenced dissent. Leaders associated with the G15 continue to insist that their concerns center on process, internal democracy, and the long-term survival of the party. Reports that some members declined to engage with the reconciliation committee have further fueled perceptions that the rift remains unhealed.

Whether these internal fractures result in electoral damage remains an open question. What is clear, however, is that the APC is spending considerable political energy managing internal disputes at a time when it would ordinarily be showcasing its governance record.

Reversal of roles

In 2019, Bukola Saraki was the establishment defending decades of political dominance against a united opposition. Today, the roles are reversed. The APC is the establishment, and Saraki is leading the charge from the outside.

Ironically, the same strategy that once defeated Saraki—capitalizing on a fractured establishment—could now work in his favor if ruling party divisions persist. However, history does not repeat itself automatically. The APC still holds major advantages as the incumbent party.

The ultimate test for the APC is whether the unity forged under the O-to-ge banner can survive now that the shared goal has been replaced by competing personal ambitions.

For the PDP and Bukola Saraki, the opening is clearer today than at any point since 2019. Whether Saraki can convert this momentum into a full political comeback remains uncertain, but one reality is hard to ignore: seven years after O-to-ge transformed Kwara, the APC’s biggest challenge may no longer come from Saraki alone—it may come from whether its own coalition can stay united long enough to keep him out.

Highlighting this vulnerability, Prof. Hassan Saliu, immediate past National President of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA), warned that the ruling party risks severe electoral consequences if it fails to genuinely reconcile aggrieved aspirants.

“The governor’s camp cannot win any free and fair election alone. They need other people to win, and the earlier they realize this, the better for them,” Saliu noted.

He added that public sentiment in parts of the state appears to be shifting toward the PDP, though he emphasized that time remains for the APC to make amends.

“The feeling from a few places I have visited seems to be tilting toward the PDP, but since there is still time before the election, corrective steps can be taken,” he said.

The professor warned that ignoring these grievances could fuel anti-party activities: “If they continue on this path, it will promote anti-party activities, which may cost the APC victory in a free, fair, and credible election.”

Saliu concluded that the sheer volume of aggrieved contestants shows the rift cannot be easily dismissed: “If ten governorship aspirants are aggrieved, it means the matter is far from over. Party leaders must embrace genuine dialogue because the crisis requires a real political solution.”