Late and less rainfall: How prepared are we?

In March 2016, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) presented its Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) for this year. NiMet’s SRP is part of the agency’s meteorological Early Warning System that contains rainfall and temperature outlook for the year. The predictions are designed to provide relevant information for planning in various sectors, especially those that are sensitive […]

In March 2016, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) presented its Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) for this year. NiMet’s SRP is part of the agency’s meteorological Early Warning System that contains rainfall and temperature outlook for the year. The predictions are designed to provide relevant information for planning in various sectors, especially those that are sensitive to weather variability such as agriculture.
According to the Director General/CEO of NiMet, Dr Anthony Anuforom, the rainfall prediction for 2016 in Nigeria indicates that the rainy season will be characterised by “late on-set, early cessation and lower-than-normal rainfall in many parts of the country.” Anuforom also said: “Dry spells during the rainy season may be more frequent and severe in many parts of the north, while the ‘little dry season’ or August break inparts of the south are expected to be pronounced. All these are risk factors for farmers in the country. The situation requires to be carefully and scientifically managed. The summary of these predictions is that there will be heightened dryness in Nigeria this year.
NiMet noted that the dry spell may set in from May to June/July when farmers would or should have planted their crops. And because agriculture in Nigeria is predominantly rain-fed, this could result in crop failure. This means that unless the situaton is well managed, food production in 2016 could face a major setback as happened in 1983 when Nigeria experienced drought. A dry year of lesser rainfall, as 2016 portends, could drastically reduce the contribution of agriculture to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product. Rainfall variability is a risk factor that must therefore be carefully managed to avert its attendant effects which may obviously include hunger, starvation, and malnutrition. Hundreds of thousands of livestock are also likely to die from the effects of this climate change phenomenon.
NiMet’s predictions are gradually coming to pass. We are in the month of May and the rains are very erratic. Yet, it seems though for now that the same careless attitude we exhibited in our refusal to heed NiMet’s warning on flooding in 2012 may be repeated as the country has not shown enough concern and preparations for the less-than-normal rainfall season. Are there enough grains in stock for sale to the public when the dry year becomes a reality? Even as belated as NiMet’s predictions are, it would be insensitive of us (collectively and individually) if no measures are taken to prepare for the dry year.
The 2016 SRP released in March is belated because most peasant farmers would have long emptied their grain-silos (for domestic and economic purposes) and were left with just seeds or seedlings waiting for the rains to arrive. This was not how an Egyptian king responded when a vision he saw symbolically suggested that his land was going to experience drought. Sometime between the 19th and 17th century BC; Pharaoh, probably of the Hyksos Dynasty (as suggested by the popular Qur’anic exegete, Abdullahi Yusuf Ali), saw a vision which none of his aides and lieutenants could explain. The Pharaoh while holding a council relates his dream in which (according to Qur’an 12:43) he saw seven fat kine being devoured by seven lean ones; and seven fine full green ears of corn (presumably) being devoured by seven dry withered ears. His confidential adviser, the cup-bearer (similar to what the Hausa refer to as Sallama in an emir’s palace) who was once a prison mate of Prophet Yusuf (AS) sought the permission to withdraw for a moment so that he could find the interpretation of the dream.
The cup-bearer actually had no knowledge of the interpretation of dreams but knew Yusuf (AS) by personal experience to be highly skilled in analysing dreams. He went to meet Yusuf (AS) in the prison cell. Prophet Yusuf (AS) explained to the cup-bearer that seven years of abundant harvest will be followed by another ‘seven years of dreadful famine which will devour all the stores which they would have laid by in the good years.’ He thus advised Egyptians to take a little for their sustenance and store the rest in the ear; to preserve it from the pests that attack corn-heaps when they have passed through threshing. He cautioned Egyptians not to consume all the grains; counselling them to make special arrangements to save a little for seed lest they become helpless when water for irrigation purposes reaches them from the Nile.
Do we now call it ‘early warning’ when the SRP was released in March; less than two months before the rains? Details of the predictions as they affect farming season should have been made public long before the period. After all, the procedure is scientific in nature. Even now, how many subsistent farmers know about the 2016 SRP? The collapse of agricultural extension services and the ‘death’ of Agricultural Development Projects both at state levels strategically precluded non-mechanised farmers from accessing important information on weather, soil, crops, etc. State goverments could translate the SRP into local languages and thereafter train their agricultural extension workers (where they exist) on its interpretation and application for the benefit of farmers. NiMet can equally collaborate with the Ministry of Environment to develop a National Framework for Climate Services.
Nigerians expect the Minister of Agriculture, Chief Audu Ogbe, to initiate and coordinate a functional synergy between relevant agencies of the ministry to tackle the apparent challenges posed by the looming dry year. These agencies include the National Root Crops Research Institute, Umudike; the National Seed Council, Sheda, Abuja; the National Cereals Research Institute, Badeggi; the National Water Research Institute, Kaduna; and the Bank of Industry. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture through these organs is encouraged to collaborate with biotechnology agencies, including the Sheda Science and Technology Complex (SHESTCO) in Abuja to develop and promote the planting of drought-resistant crop varieties.
It would be catastrophic if all relevant stakeholders in the agricultural sector including government at all levels fail to provide concrete measures that would lessen the effects of less-than-normal rainfall. It would be catastrophic because Nigeria is already hit by some critical fiscal crisis, including inflation, dwindling revenues occasioned by the drastic fall in crude oil prices, and a depreciated strength of the naira at the foreign exchange market. May Allah (SWT) have mercy on us, amin.