Let the north beware

Chatting with colleagues who cover Nigeria for international media, I wasn’t surprised to hear that they’re struggling to get stories in. The world currently suffers too many other crises, from Egypt to Libya, Iraq to Gaza, and Damascus to Donetsk. And now bored with Boko Haram, we acquired Ebola to amuse the world. Even the […]

Chatting with colleagues who cover Nigeria for international media, I wasn’t surprised to hear that they’re struggling to get stories in. The world currently suffers too many other crises, from Egypt to Libya, Iraq to Gaza, and Damascus to Donetsk. And now bored with Boko Haram, we acquired Ebola to amuse the world. Even the #bring back our girls movement is having difficulty grabbing headlines and this has serious implications for stability in Nigeria.
The idea that Nigeria is ‘too big to fail’ has long been entrenched in our national psyche. We have long assumed that any amount of irresponsibility on the part of our leaders would be excused by the international community because Nigeria is too critical to ECOWAS, perhaps even to Africa’s and global stability to be allowed to self-destruct. But that was then.
This notion, which is rooted in many national attributes, may not continue to hold water any longer. Although the country is a large and growing market which is linked to the West through its Diaspora, this orgy of death may drive Foreign Direct Investment away. Northern Nigeria is home to Boko Haram whose activities produce ambivalence among the northern elite rather than condemnation. The perverse confidence that we’re too big to fall has often led to suicidal policymaking on the part of both civilian and military leaders. For example, the ‘blame-game’ with regard to militancy and the rejection of Jonathan’s proposal to impose total emergency, fear of 2015 and persistently poor governance in north-eastern states are all retrogressive.
Northern political elite continue to make bad decisions knowing that the presidency will think twice before clamping down on them because of the volatility of their people and the thought that a bad blow on the embattled territory is a bad rap for all. The US, which had earlier predicted the collapse of Nigeria come 2015, in particular, has fuelled this perception over the past decade, frequently pandering to northern Nigeria’s histrionics by flooding the place with aid when the chips are down or urging the country to inject fresh neo-liberal policy packages to keep administrations afloat.
But things are changing now. The world is becoming better accustomed to failure. Washington concluded that it could not bring peace to Iraq, and walked away. Its return to that country a while ago to conduct air strikes against militant jihadists was grudgingly pessimistic. The US has also resignedly watched developments in Syria, Ukraine, Israel-Palestine and elsewhere. The challenge in Syria is particularly extreme, with the country poised to be a haven for violent extremism in the heart of the Middle East.
Nigeria is thus no longer unique in its ability to teeter on the brink of collapse in ways that would be potentially destabilizing to its neighbours. The paranoia that the thought of Boko Haram used to induce has lessened as an increasing number of European countries see their own Muslim nationals travel to Syria, and are worried that they may be brainwashed to launch attacks in their host communities upon their return. Boko Haram’s bombs will of course keep Nigeria on the global radar for years to come, but it may not threaten anyone beyond our borders. The kidnap and immediate recapture of the Deputy Prime Ministers wife in Cameroun is proof.
If northern Nigeria’s politicians’ refusal to tackle insurgency could lead to instability, it will consume northern Nigeria first. The default mode of northern leaders is to act now, think later. They feel no need to cultivate a long-term vision for their people even after having held forte in the country for over four decades, believing that they will always be bailed out of trouble. The politicians wait for the military to come to their rescue when the going gets tough, the military invites the civilians to step in whenever they feel unwanted by the populace. It is a vicious northern circle for all of which they seek a fall guy elsewhere.
Ironically, this false confidence in the fact that we’re too big to fail has triggered bigger failure because the international community, plagued by crises, is losing the will to help those who won’t help themselves. The northern political elite must stop playing the ostrich. There is fire in their backyard and all they are doing is blaming the centre. Long years of unemployment for the youths of the region, lack of local industrial concerns, absence of subsidy for farmers and the proliferation of baby factories cannot be solved by finger-pointing.
There are many counts on which Nigeria’s intransigence is likely to cause the world to throw up its hands in frustration and give up: the continued ambivalence to¬¬wards militancy, and the tendency to pitch Muslims against one another in proxy warfare, coupled with the irrational and self-serving behaviour of politicians, when added to the absolute refusal to tackle systemic discrimination and persecution of minorities spells our doom. Merely fighting to win small personal battles has led northern leaders to lose the plot.
The military operation in the North East suggests that our confidence has been shaken. If the world’s diminishing interest in saving us from ourselves does not lead to introspection, self-reliance and responsible policymaking, we shall have ourselves to blame. Let our leaders stand in front of the mirror and tell themselves nothing but the truth about what they see. The blame game which they continue to rely on has ceased to work. And if they are expecting a boiled egg revolution by 2015, evidence on ground shows it is most unlikely.