Long shadows over 2019

A few weeks ago, at about the same time the Nigerian military was making a spectacular breakthrough in its agonizing search for the missing retired General Idris  Alkali in villages near Jos, Plateau State, hundreds of Shia supporters of Ibrahim El-Zakzaky were engaging armed security forces in deadly clashes in the nation’s capital of Abuja. […]

A few weeks ago, at about the same time the Nigerian military was making a spectacular breakthrough in its agonizing search for the missing retired General Idris  Alkali in villages near Jos, Plateau State, hundreds of Shia supporters of Ibrahim El-Zakzaky were engaging armed security forces in deadly clashes in the nation’s capital of Abuja. Around the same time too, bands of Boko Haram fighters were either being bombed or attacking the military in Borno and Yobe States, in what appears to be a resurgence of direct armed conflicts with the insurgency. The fugitive leader of the pro-Biafran movement, Nnamdi Kanu reportedly resurfaced in Israel, shooting political temperatures high, especially in mainstream Igbo political establishment. One of the nation’s epicenters of tensions around faith and ethnic politics, Kaduna State, was counting the toll from its latest conflict, and kidnappers and bandits were putting increasingly larger numbers of citizens in fear in many parts of the country.

With only a few months to go before the general elections, ethno-religious tensions and security of life and property seem likely to be the major factors that will influence attitudes of voters to contending parties and candidates. Ordinarily, the murder of General Alkali and the attempts made to cover it up (along with a number of other murders hitherto undiscovered) should not be sources of dispute, even in an environment in which every issue is chronically infected by damaging prejudice. The Governor of Plateau State, Simon Lalong, has taken the initiative for responsible action in saying and doing all the right things to the military and the Alkali family. This is unlikely to change the course of the investigations and prosecution of suspects, or the sullen, bitter resentment of their kith and kin.

The outrage at these murders is unprecedented, but it is noteworthy that the celebrations have been distinctly one-sided. More worrisome than the events leading to this trial is the deafening silence from persons and communities that may think these murders were routine and defensible in the context of the many skirmishes that have characterized ethnic relations and politics in much of the middle belt of Nigeria. No one will step forward to publicly call General Alkali’s killers heroes, but the community from which the suspected murderers come from, and many like them which share similar attitudes towards groups from which they target victims are likely to walk further away from President Buhari’s administration. They may support Atiku or another candidate, but that will be no favour to Atiku or any other candidate. What is certain is that faith and ethnicity will deepen hate and determine partisanship in a most sensitive part of the nation before and after the elections. A pronounced electoral hostility towards Buhari from Northern Christians could create for him a groundswell of sympathy from Northern Muslims. A strong play for faith by any candidate could tap into resentment votes, but it could also compound the tasks of bridging very dangerous divisions in the nation after the elections.

There is another group that has been in the trenches with President Buhari and security agents much longer than murderous ethnic militias. This is El-Zakzaky’s Shia movement, more organized, more bitter and a lot more articulate and visible. And, yes, to the last person, registered and ready to vote Buhari out. Their electoral value is hotly-disputed, in part because political strategists think they can be played against non-Shia groups to reduce their impact. Their own thinkers are keeping bitterness levels high and building strong alliances with Christian groups and select Muslim sects to reduce the damage of possible backlash from other Muslim groups. This movement will demand promises and concessions such as freedom for their leader and guarantees that they can resume their insular and intolerable existence. A romance with the Shia will have to be very discreet, because it could cost very valuable support and haunt the winner long after the elections.

Boko Haram, now in factions and tiny enclaves and seemingly comfortable with the idea of a long, low intensity conflict, has predated the Shia and ethnic militias. It owes its biggest setbacks to the early days of the Buhari administration’s onslaught which deprived it of most of its territory and mystique. It is unlikely that any of its factions harbour any clear political goals beyond physical survival and constituting a nuisance to the credibility of leadership these days. It is probably the case that recent escalation of engagements with the military are intended to degrade the records of the Buhari administration against it, while forcing its way into the agenda of whoever emerges at the head of the administration in 2019.They could also be explained by the imperatives of presenting to the nation a better record of performance by the Buhari administration as the elections draw near. This is one party that will not cut deals, because no one is likely to offer it any. Yet, Nigerians will listen very carefully to how presidential candidates plan to deal with this intractable insurgency. Buhari cannot offer more of the same, because the current stand-off is not a victory. Other candidates may promise to do better than President Buhari, but Nigerians will demand details.

Nigerians will also demand details on how Kanu, if indeed he is still around and about, will be handled within the context of the rule of law. There will be zero tolerance for glib talk or ambiguity on restructuring, particularly since this will be considered the general antidote to Kanu and similar agitators across the country. So much hope is riding on the prospects for restructuring the nation, but this is a very slippery slope because there is no consensus beyond the vague support behind improving the basic framework for governance in the country. Aspiring leaders need to prepare to provide some evidence of fresh and bold thinking with regards to kidnappings, banditry and other violent crimes. Candidates will need to say how they will solve the problem of a desperately pressed military and a collapsed policing institution. President Buhari will be more challenged in this respect, with a record that is easy to knock down by untested candidates. Those who hope to defeat Buhari will have to prepare to explain how they will secure villagers from bandits; how they will stop kidnappings and bring to an end, the very damaging conflicts which pitch communities against each other on a permanent basis. This is one election that will not be won by Buhari on promises to do better. Nor will it be easy to defeat him only because he has not done as much to secure Nigerians as he should have. This is not 2015. Nigerians will be more critical of their choices in 2019.

Jamila Abubakar wrote this piece from Abuja