LUCK VS TRUST

For a lot of folks it has always been difficult reconciling Yar’adua the man with Yar’adua the politician. He simply didn’t fit the mold of your typical Nigerian, Hausa-Fulani privileged male politician. People within that socio-political bracket could have many virtues, but infectious humility, for want of a better phrase, is not one of them. […]

For a lot of folks it has always been difficult reconciling Yar’adua the man with Yar’adua the politician. He simply didn’t fit the mold of your typical Nigerian, Hausa-Fulani privileged male politician. People within that socio-political bracket could have many virtues, but infectious humility, for want of a better phrase, is not one of them. Perhaps in Yar’adua’s case his inoffensive demeanor could be explained within the self-fulfilling prophesy syndrome; a sociological model in which individuals, consciously or unconsciously, go out of their way to meet societal expectations of them. Victims of that social tyranny rarely succeed, because in most cases they go against their natural instinct. Coming from the family he came from (his father was a minister in the first republic while his older brother was a deputy head of state), Yar’adua often seemed more like a man determined to prove he wasn’t the weakest link in the family chain, than an enthusiastic politician with predetermined goals and objectives.

Whatever, the man had borne his burden and is now departed. If his desire was to sustain a glorious family tradition, he had succeeded; that he ended up tragically is neither here nor there; as the Late Chief Sunday Awoniyi used to say “The most difficult chapter to write in a man’s life is the last chapter”. Malam Umaru put the final full stop to his last chapter last Wednesday, May 6, 2010; just three months shy of his 59th birthday. In recognition of his passage, the Nigerian flag, the symbol of her sovereignty now flies at half mast. Neither his father nor his brother came this far. In that respect he had not been a failure. No doubt that in the coming days and weeks analysts would attempt to draw a parallel between the Yar’adua family and the Gandhis of India and the Kennedys of the USA. Furthermore a parallel might well emerge in the quantum of sympathy that Yar’adua’s sudden demise might generate from Nigerians with the way Americans elevated the Kennedys to a status akin to royalty. Such sympathy too would not be misplaced.

  In other respects, late President Yar’adua’s biggest moment was the amnesty program he managed to broker between the Nigerian state and the Niger Delta militants that had truncated oil operations in the region for many years. That he was able to extract such concessions from the militants was a tribute to his dogged determination to succeed, albeit at his own pace, against daunting odds. In time and with better health, he probably would have sprung a few other surprises, including maybe fixing the power sector. But all that is academic now.  May his soul rest in perfect peace.

Now, what next. A lot of what happens next would depend on how the new President Dr Goodluck Jonathan comports himself in the next few weeks. It is natural that a country with such huge leadership deficit as Nigeria will be overflowing with myriad of problems.  As of the time of writing, Mr. Jonathan is yet to make his most important appointment: that of the vice president; but it is almost certain that one of these men would get that coveted number two position: National Security Adviser General Aliyu Mohammed Gusau; Adamawa state Governor Admiral Murtala Nyako; self-exile returnee Malam Nasir el-Rufai; Secretary to the Government Alhaji Yayale Ahmed; Gombe state Governor Danjuma Goje.

But then, it is just as possible that none of those contenders may get Jonathan’s approval.  It is expected that the president would choose not only carefully, but tactfully as well because there are suggestive signs that he has been bitten by the palace bug and would go for a weak deputy (like the former president’s young nephew and new minister of state for defense Murtala Yar’adua) that would not stand in his way to self-succession in 2011. How and who he selects as his deputy therefore would be a big declaration of intent, one way or another.

 Meanwhile life in Nigeria continues; short, nasty and brutish as usual, especially for journalists. Five months from now our country would be 50 years old as an independent nation, and so would 16 other African nations; among them Somalia, Cameroun, Chad, Niger, Benin, Madagascar and Togo. Except for Somalia which is locked in a deadly civil war against itself, most of those other countries, some of them no bigger or richer than many states in Nigeria, would have one reason or the other to celebrate. Although Niger Republic is under a military occupation, it can still console itself by claiming that it was a ‘coup of necessity’ (the military equivalent of the Doctrine of Necessity perhaps); better which than to submit to the whims of a civil dictator that was positioning himself to rule for life. Cameroun too can brazenly paint its streets and even send up a few fire crackers on October 1st, even though Paul Biya, its president, has personalized the state and has been sitting tight for almost three decades now.

But sad and pathetic as the conditions of those countries and most of Africa are, none would have a golden jubilee celebration that could be as depressing as that of Nigeria’s.  It is difficult to imagine any other African country that has performed so woefully than this big, rich, clumsy giant of 150 million beleaguered people. Sure Dr Goodluck Jonathan would be out there on 1st October at Eagle Square to take the salute; but while he awaits that moment with relish; and indeed while he savours the good fortunes that his destiny has brought to him, the new president would do well not to forget that Yar’adua’s life or death were the least of Nigeria’s problems.

In other words Mr. Jonathan must constantly bear in mind that he inherited not only a country with nothing to cheer about at 50, but Yar’adua’s tainted mandate as well. His first task is to convince Nigerians that he can be trusted. So far, well, it is still too early to say. It is encouraging though that he has denied the accusations of trying to take over (hijack is a better word) his party, the PDP by removing its leadership unconstitutionally. But trust is earned through actions, not via pronouncements. He is no doubt aware that his mentor, former president Obasanjo never admitted that he sanctioned the so-called third term campaign; but that still hasn’t stopped a big majority of Nigerians from using it to judge his entire political career. Such is the power of trustworthiness that once you’ve earned it you can get away with several lesser weaknesses; and vice versa.  

If the president cares to study the body language of Nigerians keenly, he would notice that we are not too agitated about his ability to fix power or provide security, crucial as these twin problems are, at least not within the time frame at his disposal; but we are passionate, damn passionate, that the next time we go to the polls to elect our leaders, our votes must count. Now is the time for President Jonathan to let us know if we can trust him to deliver on that. In this, luck has very little role to play; nobody can say how far Jonathan’s luck would carry him, but we know and he knows that the position he occupies now is the last bus stop. Henceforth he would have nothing to lean on but his character, which will then tell us whether we can trust him or not. Something else the new president must bear in mind all the times: stakeholders on Nigeria extend all the way from Africa, across the Atlantic and the Pacific to Europe and America. So the scrutiny would be intense and pervasive. As the CNN correspondent Christian Purefoy pointedly observed while analyzing the consequences of an unstable Nigeria: “If you fix Nigeria, you have fixed Africa”. Doing that would take more than a run of good luck.