Mark, Bankole, Yarima, Goje, Saraki, Sheriff: Will they make it today?

Weekly Trust observes that the today’s elections are significant and promise to be tough for two main reasons. First, they are highly expected to give a clear direction as to the direction of the presidential election next week and the governorship and House of Assembly elections the upper week. It is expected that any party […]

Weekly Trust observes that the today’s elections are significant and promise to be tough for two main reasons. First, they are highly expected to give a clear direction as to the direction of the presidential election next week and the governorship and House of Assembly elections the upper week. It is expected that any party that captures the most seats to day will take the lead in subsequent polls. And just in case no party gets a clear majority in the National Assembly elections, the strength of the four leading political parties –PDP, ACN, CPC and ANPP – will further determine lines of alliance, especially in next week’s presidential election.

 

Also talks between the Adamu Ciroma led Northern Political Leaders in the G15 who formally jettison President Goodluck Jonathan recently and presidential candidates of the CPC, ACN and the ANPP have been temporarily halted pending the outcome of today’s polls, Weekly Trust learnt.

Second, the polls today will be a tough fight between some ranking members of both chambers of the national assembly and resurgent opposition politicians who in most states have sworn to change the political equation.  Already 205 members of the assembly including the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives Bayaro Nafada have lost the chance to contest today’s election. Many others who lost tickets in the PDP especially have found alternative platforms on other political parties to stage a fight against their opponents in the ruling party.

Among the prominent lawmakers who are to fly their parties’ flags today are the Senate President David Mark (PDP, Benue South), Speaker of the House of Representatives Dimeji Bankole (Abeokuta South), Deputy Senate President Ike Ekweremadu (Enugu West), Senate Minority Leader Maina Ma’aji Lawan (ANPP, Borno North) and Senate Minority Whip, Senator Ahmed Sani Yari (ANPP, Zamfara West). Others include House Chief Whip Emeka Ihedioha (PDP, Imo) Minority Leader Femi Gbajabiamila (ACN, Lagos), Deputy Minority Leader Nelson Alapa (ANPP, Benue), Minority Whip Suleiman Abdulrahman Kawu (ANPP Kano) and Aminu Waziri Tambuwal Minority Whip (PDP, Sokoto).

Weekly Trust learnt that even before the election, the leadership of both chambers of the assembly have been scheming to retain their positions when they get re-elected. As reports indicate, the seats of majority of the top lawmakers are on the line as they are threatened by the wave of change that is blowing across the political space.

Benue State

In Benue State, Senate President David Mark faces daunting task in making it back to the Red Chamber. The retired general faces stiff opposition from retired General Laurence Onoja of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Mark had earlier defeated Onoja in the PDP primary election which Onoja alleged was manipulated by the state government in favour of the Senate President.

However, Onoja bounced back on the ACN ticket. Today, Onoja is joined by former national chairman of the PDP Chief Audu Ogbe, Alhaji Usman Abubakar alias Young Alhaji, running mate to the ACN governorship candidate, who held Mark’s political career hostage in the Senate race in 2007 in the fight against the Senate president for Benue South.

In Benue North-West zone, Akume is challenged by former Speaker pro-tempore of the House of Reps, Mr. Terngu Tesgba who is believed to have the backing of Governor Gabriel Suswam. After being schemed out of the PDP, Akume joined the ACN and is slugging it out with Tsegba in the senate race today.

In the House of Reps, Deputy Minority Leader Nelson Alapa popularity known as ‘last man standing’  having been the only surviving ANPP member from Benue state is contending  with the 33-year-old  Musa Ogwatabo Alechenu of the ACN and  Ezekiel Adaji of the PDP. Though very popular with his people, recent reports indicated that Alapa may be swept away from the hallowed green chambers by the raging ACN storm propelled by Young Alhaji in Idoma Land. His party, the ANPP is also believed to be extinct in Benue State.

Ogun State

Speaker Dimeji Bankole who managed to secure the PDP ticket for Abeokuta South federal constituency after playing left and right will square it up with 8 other candidates today. But the contest is generally believed to be between him and ACN candidate William Ulosegun Samuel and candidate of the PPN, Ogwudimu Afolabi, who is being supported by Governor Gbenga Daniel.

Others in the race are Mustapha Olatunji Dohunmo of the ANPP, Elder Oyedele Femi of the CPC, and Adeniyi Sowunmi of the ANPP. Others are Adeyemi Suwebat Adeyemi APGA, Elder Oyedele Femi of MPPP and Shor Abayomi of the UNPP.

The political landscape in Ogun has been deeply split into three major blocs with the PDP being led by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the ACN led by Senator Abikunle Amosun and the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN) which is believed to be bank rolled by Governor Daniel.

Another election to watch today in Ogun State is that of Senator Iyabo Obasanjo (Ogun Central) who eventually made the PDP list of contestants after a court decision which recognised the primary election held by the Obasanjo faction.

But observers on ground in the state say she is likely to be stopped by Governor Gbenga Daniel who decamped to the PPN. Daniel may have apologised to former President Obasanjo, he has however remained resolute in his resolve to dismantle the political structure of the former leader.

Kaduna State

Former governor, Senator Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi will test his popularity for the first time outside government house. It is believed that he still enjoys the support of the people he governed for eight year. But he faces Dr. Datti Baba Ahmed, a radical scholar who was in the House of Representatives. Baba Ahmed is contesting on the platform of the ACN, and with the Buhari hurricane, he stands a strong chance of winning the election in the zone. In Kaduna south zone, it is a duel between former Minister of Finance Esther Nenadi Usman of the PDP and Senator Caleb Zagi who dumped the PDP after losing the ticket to the former minister and joined the ACN. Observers say Nenadi stands a better chance having the full backing of Governor Patrick Yakowa.

Gombe State

Governor Muhammed Danjuma Goje is unarguably one of the few of his contemporaries that performed averagely in the last eight years. Consequently, it was presumed that his ambition to go to the Senate by 2011 should enjoy a smooth sail. However fillers from Gombe indicate that Goje is facing some career threatening obstacles in today’s elections. The governor is said to be facing a stiff challenge from ANPP candidate Fa’ad Mohammed.

There are reports that Goje’s campaign train has suffered rejection in some parts of his constituency, thus throwing the contest open to the opposition who are said to have been working hard to give him the kind of treatment which former governor of Bauchi State Ahmed Mu’azu got in 2007. Also to his disadvantage is the internal wrangling in his PDP. Governor Goje is alleged to have truncated the ambition of over ten governorship aspirants including the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives Bayaro Nafada. Unless he was able to mend fences before midnight, observers say some aggrieved party leaders were either not keen about his campaign or had even lined up some clogs on his way. But many observers say Goje can be a ruthless fighter on election day and he may stop at nothing to safe his political career.

Nasarawa State

Nasarawa State witnessed one of the most intriguing contests for senatorial tickets. In Nasarawa West zone, it was a case of a former godfather squeezing out his godson. Former Governor Abdullahi Adamu supported Senator Abubakar Sodangi to the Senate a record three terms. But when Adamu decided he wanted the seat for himself, Sodangi did not only protest but went all the length to frustrate his former leader. In the end, Adamu won the ticket. It has not been reported that the two men have mended fences since the primaries.

Adamu’s biggest challenger is candidate of the CPC, retired General Abdullahi Aboki, who is said to have supported Adamu to become governor in 1999. Though the two men are said to be childhood friends, they are sworn to outwit each other today. In fact some observers say Aboki who enjoys the support of former minister of Labour Dr. Hassan Lawan may turn out to be the underdog.

In the race for the Green Chamber, Rep Ahmed Aliyu Wadada  though popular, PDP’s declining popularity in the state may hamper his ambition to return to the House. Ishag Ahmed Kana of the CPC is said to be giving him a big headache. But observers say the race still remains unpredictable as the pendulum could swing to any direction.

Plateau State

Plateau is another area of interest to observers, especially Plateau South where incumbent senator, retired Gen. John Shagaya (Labour Party) is facing a fierce battle from two political heavy weights. Shagaya had to dump the PDP for the Labour Party when the faction of the PDP led Governor Jonah Jang was recognised by the party’s headquarters. However, Shagaya’s return to the Senate for a second term could be scuttled by General Jeremiah Useni of the Democratic People’s Party (DPP). Useni is said to be more popular in the zone owing to his contact with the grassroots. Another candidate for the seat is Mr. Victor Lar, one time member of the House of Representatives who left the ANPP to fly the flag of the PDP. He has been under Gen. Useni’s mentoring since the beginning of his political career. Our correspondent said the much younger Lar could pull a surprise.

Zamfara State

In Zamfara state many eyes are on the race for the Senate seat for Zamfarawa West where two former governors are slugging it out today. Immediate past governor and the incumbent Senator representing the zone, Senator Ahmed Sani Yarima of the ANPP is taking on former governor of old Sokoto State Malam Abdulkarim Yahaya of the PDP. But the fight is beyond the two personalities as the state government is said to have deployed its arsenals to make sure that the Yarima does not return to the senate for a second term.

But our correspondent reports not much has been done to deplete Senator Yarima’s popularity in the area. Besides he is said to have campaigned like no other candidate in Zamafara West.

In the race for the lower chamber, former Minority Whip Bello Mutawalle is faced with some difficulties in securing the people’s mandate to continue representing Maradun/Bakura federal constituency. Mutawalle was a long time political ally of Senator Ahmed Sani and his former commissioner. The duo parted ways when Yerima withdrew his support for Mutawalle’s governorship ambition under the ANPP.

Mutawalle then left the ANPP, and pitched camp with Governor Mamuda Shinkafi. Today, Mutawalle will be battling for his seat with two strong opposition candidate, Sanusi Aliyu of the ANPP and Ibrahim Shehu Magaji of the CPC.

Jigawa State

In Jigawa State the election today is going to be a battle of three political parties –PDP, ACN, and CPC – on one hand and personalities on the other. Senator Saminu Turaki, the immediate past governor is definitely the rallying point of observer’s eyes today. Turaki came to the Senate on the platform of the PDP but had to dump the party for ACN when he fell out with Governor Sule Lamido.

Against Lamido’s arsenal, Turaki wants to be re-elected on ACN’s platform today. His major challenger from the PDP is no other person than the party’s national vice chairman, North West, Alhaji Abdullahi Danladi Sankara who enjoys the strong backing of the state government as well as the federal government. The other contender is CPC’s Senator Mohammed Alkali who was in the senate between 1999 and 2003.

In the race for House of Reps, Rep Bashir Adamu Kazaure  of the PDP who is bidding for the fourth term in the House is being challenged by  Mohamed G. Kazaure of the CPC and Isa Alkasim KarKarna of the ACN, the strongest opposition in the constituency.

Borno State

Governor Ali Sherif who is bidding farewell to the Borno Government House after spending two constitutional terms is the Senate candidate for Borno Central. Sheriff who had won election to the senate three times in the past will slug it out with ACN’s Umaru Baba Goni, CPC’s Dr. Mohammed El-Nur Dongel and Alhaji Mohammed Zanna of the PDP. Governor Sheriff is knwon to be a ruthless fighter but with unfolding political events in the last days of his administration, observers are of the opinion that his ambition is under serious threat as there could be an upset in today’s election.

Also Senate Minority Leader Senator Maina Ma’aji Lawan faces serious contenders in the persons of Aliyu Kyari of the PDP and Dr Bulama M. Gubio for Borno Central. However, Senator Lawan who was one time governor of Borno State could pull a surprise.

In Borno South, it is a fierce fight between Hon. Ali Ndume, former minority leader of the House of Representative who is running on PDP’s ticket and Vilita Bashir, a member of Governor Sheriff’s cabinet. Ndume who is representing Goza/Chibok federal constituency left the ANPP and his position as Minority Leader when Sheriff insisted that he abandoned his senate ambition and return to the House of Reps so that Vilita could pick ANPP’s ticket. But Ndume refused and crossed over to the PDP where he was awarded the party’s ticket unopposed. Sheriff has vowed to defeat him but observers say he would be too busy trying to clear his own coast.

Kwara State

Governor Bukola Saraki who is candidate of the PDP will contest today’s election with two women whom observers say may not cause much problems to the governor. The two wome are Bilkisu Gambari of the CPC and Rukayyaat Ajoke Issa of the ACPN, the political party which is his father Olusola Sarki is leading. Also in the race is Dr. Olorigbe Yahaya Ibrahim of the CAN. Governor Bukola is widely expected to win.

Kano State

In Kano State, the race today will be among three political parties, the ruling ANPP, PDP and the CPC which is said to have gained sufficient ground in the state. Candidates of the CPC are widely expected to put up a good showing. But they will be running against candidates sponsored by the ruling ANPP and a strong PDP that has the backing of the federal government.

In Kano State South, Senator Kabir Gaya, former Kano State governor is the candidate of the ANPP. He will be battling in today’s polls with Aliyu Saidu of the PDP and Usman Alhaji Usman of the CPC. Very popular in the zone, Usman was the national secretary of the defunct NRC during the Babangida era.

Rep Suleiman Abdurahman Kawu Sumaila who is the House Minority Whip is having the greatest test of his political career because in the two previous elections of 2003 and 2007, Kawu had rode smoothly to victory due to his mass appeal and accessibility to the people. However, this time around, Kawu is swimming through troubled waters  partly due to the dwindling popularity of the ruling ANPP in the state and level of acceptability of the CPC in the state. Aliyu Mohammed Kachako of the CPC and Aliyu Danbaba of the ACN and Abubakar Musa Kuliya of the PDP are said to be giving him sleepless nights.

Another 3rd termer who is vying for the fourth time in Kano is Rep Faruk Lawan. Rep Lawan is seen as the nucleus of the House. Together with few others he determines what happens in the chamber. His challengers are Musa S. Shanono of the ANPP and Barrister Abdulrazaq Bagwai of the CPC. But Rep Farouk is said to be comfortable in today’s race.