Massive infrastructure not palliative will ease pains in Nigeria – Prince Adebayo

Prince Adewole Adebayo is a lawyer and candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the 2023 presidential election. He has vast interest in the upstream and downstream sectors of the oil industry. In this interview on Trust TV’s Daily Politics, he spoke on the back and forth between the federal government and the organised […]

Prince Adewole Adebayo is a lawyer and candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the 2023 presidential election. He has vast interest in the upstream and downstream sectors of the oil industry. In this interview on Trust TV’s Daily Politics, he spoke on the back and forth between the federal government and the organised labour over subsidy removal, saying the President Bola Tinubu-led administration must work towards providing enduring infrastructure to fast-track productivity that will make people stop thinking about the pump price of petrol because it will be difficult to come down.

 

You monitored the recent protest by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) over fuel subsidy and suffering in Nigeria, what was your impression? Was it a genuine protest?

I think the issues at stake are of public concern. And whatever you might think of Labour unions, their leadership and choices in recent times, they still have a role to play in the society, which is to draw government’s attention to the interest of their members.

There are some occasions where the interests of their members might coincide with the concerns of the public, so members of the public might also want to align with them and express their mind to the government.

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What we do after the protest is more important than the action itself. Protest is not going to resolve anything, but it will let the government know that there are other stakeholders. And I think the way the government has responded has shown that they too understand the issues. The protest is not taking many days, unlike what happened in the past when protests would last for days before junior people in government would intervene.

If the government is as quick to respond in terms of policy changes as they were quick to respond to the protest, they might make more progress.

During his speech, the president made some promises like providing 3,000 vehicles, releasing some money for small and medium enterprises, among others, but Labour said they were not convinced, and that was why they went on to protest. However, they shelved the procession after meeting with the president. Do you think what they did was not a sell out?

No. There shouldn’t have been any protest, to start with, because on government’s policies, every adult should be responsible for his decision. Having listened to other presidential candidates, you should know where everyone was going, so if someone says “I am going to remove fuel subsidy, unify foreign exchange” etc and he gets elected and is doing exactly that, it is natural. So, the Labour movement could join other stakeholders to speak to the government on their own, but they went out, maybe they wanted the government to take them more seriously. So I think that a one day demonstration or protest is enough. It is not about how long the demonstration was, it is about what you achieve out of it.

And the government told them that the Port Harcourt refinery would work. Well, it should work, whether there was protest or not. Any reason, excuse or justification given to restore peace and allow the economy to work and give people the opportunity to cope, I am okay with it.

I am not going to second-guess them because I rather have no protest but robust engagement on policy issues. It is not only Labour, I am also engaging the government publicly. I am not going to them, but when they initiate their policies, I engage them and I let them know that I don’t agree with some of the things they are doing just because I want them to correct as much of this as they believe they can correct.

So, it is not in anyone’s interest to have a volatile situation. And Labour should be careful not to seen to be too partisan and overplay their hands. I hope that Labour would focus more on productivity and getting their members who are in the public service to make things work for the public.

If I had been elected as president I would have been a partner to the Labour unions and the workforce because the president’s policies are not going to be implemented by him, they will be implemented through the Nigerian public service, and the members are the Trade Union Congress (TUC) and the NLC.

I don’t want us to think that they are supposed to be rivals and tango, and one is trying to defeat the other. No; if they see reasons to work together, sometimes both of them can agree. Even members of the public still have to intervene.

Now that we have Tinubu having direct engagement with Labour, which we didn’t see for a very long time, is this a positive thing for Nigeria? What hope do you think the citizens should have?

Every government has its own method or style of reaching or engaging stakeholders. Some might be doing it in front of television, some might do it at the highest level, some might do it at the middle level or low level, some might do continuous engagement that don’t require cameramen to be there, but the most important thing is that you can’t govern in a democratic space without engaging stakeholders and getting feedback without communicating your policies.

So, what the president has done is one way to do it; that is the Tinubu style. You know that Tinubu is a man with due respect who came from the streets. He didn’t come from the barracks, so he has been part of the left movement, although he has moved far to the right now in terms of policy. He used to be a social democrat. He used to be in the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), which was made up of people behind those who would demonstrate or protest. So he has a consistency familiarity. These are his people, so he will engage with them.

We should not assume that Labour is the mediator between the people and the government; that is not correct. Labour is the mediator between its members, so they go to the president in the State House to talk about the welfare of their members. However, there are some areas where the interest of Labour and the public might coincide. For example, the average motorists will want a lower cost, cheaper fuel, so if Labour is discussing a cheaper fuel, the public will be happy, but if it is discussing higher minimum wage for its members, that’s not in the interest of the public, that’s the interest of their members only. If they are talking about some other things that are only relevant to their advancement, the public needs to be conscious. The most important issue is that government policies would have consequences, some intended, some unintended.

For me, although I oppose the immediate removal of subsidy, I rather would have it audited so that waste and corruption can be removed. And I would rather invest my resources on getting local refinery to work, and at the same time trying to create multimodal transportation that will not let the public rely on petrol.

But that is now water under the bridge. I think I came to your studio to canvas the position of the Social Democratic Party and my presidency at that time. Now, the government in power is doing exactly what they said they would do, which is close to other parties’ ideology.

Nigerians should be sure that as they are making sacrifices, those in government are also making sacrifices. It should not be so a one-sided sacrifice. If the Nigerian public is having to drive less and walk more, ride bicycles and all other ideas and public transportation the government is suggesting, those who are in the higher echelon of government too should show a sign that they too are making an adjustment by reducing the cost of governance and making sure they also use what they are recommending for others to use.

It is not bad if half of the ministers ride bicycles to the Federal Executive Council meeting since they want us to ride bicycles too. And it is not a bad idea if they start to use buses when they go to the Villa for their Wednesday meetings. We don’t want 25 or 45 ministers driving 45 convoys.

Some people believe Nigerians are suffering because of the action taken by President Tinubu on his first day in office, which is removing fuel subsidy. Do you share same sentiment?

Well, the president has the authority to do what he is doing because he told the public that, “When you elect me as president, on day one I will remove subsidy and there’s nothing anybody can do. I would rather not be in the office than let it last one more day. You can protest for as long as you want, I am going to remove it so.”

And people said he could go ahead and do so because majority of the votes went to him. He had far more votes than I had. Whatever is the merit of my argument I can’t raise it now because the public voted for him to do exactly what he is doing. He has kept his word. And he never said it was not going to be difficult; that should be very clear.

I don’t want to over politicise it. I will open it again in three or so years when we would be going back to contest. I hope the country would be far better than it is now. And I pray to God that the president succeeds in whatever he is trying to do because his success would be good for the country.

Whatever shortcomings they have, at that time we will go back to the public and review them and find different solutions to the problems. We would ask Nigerians if they are happier, having given the All Progressives Congress (APC) their mandates. We will look at areas we think we have better ideas. We will go and canvas for votes again.

But we should let them implement their programmes because sometimes something may be difficult at the beginning. They may make one or two mistakes or just getting a hang of it and midway, things might be better. So we should not deny the people the experience of what the president wants to do for them.

We are on the sideline cheering them up and praying for them to succeed, but if they drop the baton, we will collect it. Now, I cannot pretend that election has not taken place and continue to argue like before.

But there are few mistakes they have made and I have pointed them out in many interviews. For example, the decision to remove subsidy right away, whether you are with them or any other party, that would be a big mistake; it is clear now. Secondly, they have taken too much time in putting the government (cabinet) together, but luckily for them, they are putting it together now. I was concerned that they might be held down longer in the Senate because they took too much time, but luckily, the Senate appears to just let them pass through. So they may now catch up. Let them have their first Executive Council meeting and we will see where they are going.

I have heard some comments from some of their nominees, for example, Mr Wale Edun saying that a fair price of the naira is N700 to a dollar. I hope that is not a policy thrust he is talking about. I hope it is just a general commentary on the status quo today because I would expect them to target N400, not defending the naira with government dollars by putting together a macroeconomic condition that would turn towards straightening our productive capacity and our naira will naturally appreciate.

There are areas we are watching out for them. I know it is difficult to run the presidency without ministers. Many of the policy pronouncements the president is making are out of legacy policies he met on the ground.

Are you saying Nigerians are actually paying for what they bargained—the difficulty they are going through—having voted Tinubu?

That is it. That’s democracy for you. It is an adult thing; that is why you have to be 18 years old before you go and vote. If you decide to take a particular road, whatever holdup you meet on that road is your choice because you were given different roads you could have taken.

It is too early to cry because there are more difficult decisions the government has to take, having taken this path of neoliberal economic policies. There are many choices they have to make along the way, and not a lot of them will make the people smile.

People should bear in mind that it is a social contract they signed with the government, and if they face any difficulty along the way, they can bring it to the attention of the government as human beings. But they should not assume that they have no role to play in it. They should realise that it was the kind of decision we took in electing them and this is what we are going through so that the next time they will review it. And they may review it and thank God that they voted for them although it was hard at the beginning, or they may review and say never again. That is democracy and that’s how we learn.

What is the way forward for Nigeria? Do you think the coming of the Port Harcourt refinery in December, and most likely, Dangote Refinery in the next couple of weeks, would bring down the price of fossil fuel so that Nigerians would have some relief?

Dangote Refinery is a private entity although the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has some minor stake. Those dates (between July and August) are not binding on them. They might have allowed former President Muhammadu Buhari the honour of going to commission it, but it didn’t mean that it was ready; they just wanted him to have that sense of achievement – that the thing took place in his time.

I have many years of continuous experience in refinery, petroleum downstream and upstream sectors, so I can tell you that I don’t see that refinery producing anything this year, given what I know about the state of its readiness and the private company.

It is more likely that you should start thinking towards the end of next year, but before they become fully operational, it will be 2025. So let us not worry too much about that.

I think they should try to make the other refineries work – Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna. But I think we will need a lead time of not less than two years before they can work. So, although the president might have told Labour that it would work by the end of this year, I think that’s aspirational. It is good for the president to have that aspiration and mandate whichever minister he appoints to oversee that department to make that as a top priority.

But all of that put together will still not reduce the price of petrol in the street significantly. The government is going out of price guarantees and saying that whatever the market offers is what you will buy, the same way for other products.

So, if you want to buy a computer set, pen, paper or food, the government is not guaranteeing that you can get any of these items at a particular price. Our government is not in the business of telling Nigerians that you will get petrol at any price anymore.

So, all those climbing down statements are just to calm people down. People should just set up their minds on the fact that the government has gone out of price guarantees completely, so there’s no price control.

What will happen is that we will now merge with the international market in terms of the pricing of white products, that is petrol and other byproducts of refineries.

What it also means is that even if we produce locally, the only way we can reduce the cost here is if the logistics are easier because if you produce in Lagos and you are selling in Lagos, you don’t pay shipping as if you bought it from Russia, Turkey or somewhere. That might reduce the cost. So, whatever is the component of the cost, that is shipping and logistics, may reduce.

But other costs may also increase. For example, if something is wrong with your catalytic cracking system and you need to replace one pin there, it might be cheaper for the refinery that is in Russia to replace it than you because the company making that component is located in Russia and they can easily get it. But if you want to fix it, they have to fly it or ship it all the way to Nigeria and that may increase your cost on that side.

By and large, don’t hope for a time when the price of petrol will be guaranteed. I think what we should hope for is that the government would do other combination of policies that would make productivity to go high in the country, and if productively goes high, income level will go high. We also do segmentation so that those who are really poor would not be direct buyers of petrol because in most countries of the world, the poorest of the people are not direct buyers of petrol because they don’t drive cars, they usually take public transport like trains, buses. So they are not the ones directly buying the fuel. And they don’t use generators at home because public power supply will be working.

So, let’s journey towards that direction. We might say it is going to take a long time, but we have been doing this subsidy argument for almost 40 years, from Gowon’s time. So if we spend another eight or 12 years getting ourselves out of that ecosystem completely, it is not too much. You can walk in the streets of New York and ask somebody how much the price of petrol, which they call gas, is and he would say he doesn’t know because he doesn’t have a car, he takes the bus.  If you go to London and ask somebody the price of petrol, he would not know, but if you ask anybody in Nigeria, they will tell you how much it is. We should move away from that.

We should increase our agricultural output and infrastructure. We should have better road networks, trains and buses. The 3,000 buses the government is promising, if you do the arithmetic it would give you three buses per local government or four per local government.

So, in Abuja, the whole of Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC) would have four buses. I don’t think that would make any difference. It is a symbolism of trying to let Labour or other watchers believe that the government cares.

When they settle down, I would expect them to be more robust to do better than they are offering. I have criticised them, saying their so-called palliative is not as robust as even SURE-P. I had to criticise them because I was a critic of Jonathan’s SURE-P. It said it was weak and below Abacha’s Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF).

Abacha’s PTF was more far-reaching than Jonathan’s SURE-P; and unfortunately, Jonathan’s SURE-P is far better than Tinubu’s palliative. We have to be consistent when we are evaluating public policies to see that we get the best for our people.

This might be their immediate reaction, a knee jack reaction to deal with the protest, but a more robust approach will be expected so that they can invest not less than N3 trillion to N4 trillion in public infrastructure that will give the members of the public ease.

I don’t think that even notable journalists like you are above taking buses. Since I returned to the United States (US), I have taken the train and the bus. I have used marine transport. I have not had to drive. Multimodal way of transportation is not just because you are removing subsidy, those are the things that are unique as the agents and drivers of your productivity.

This issue of palliative is to look as if government is trying to mollify or compensate people. That is not the essence of government’s policies, it is that the productivity of the people needs to come out of them, and for the productivity to come out you need to give them factors of production.

So, affordable land, capital, tools, labour, infrastructure, cost of production, all these things, are necessary for you to get something out of the over 200 million population we keep boasting of.

If you have 100 million Nigerians fully engaged and each one is giving you $1,000 in terms of output every month, the average Nigerian output will be at $12,000 a year. If you have that by 100 million, you are talking about $12 trillion. So you have to make a strong economy that people will start to respect you. That is not what we are doing now.

I think we need to start working very hard to see that people can go to work, produce, go farms, rivers to fish and other forms of productivity. Energy costs will come down. That is the long or medium term for the government to get us out of it.

But all this cat-and-mouse over, the price of one or two products is not going to help us, but since the government has taken the plunge by saying the subsidy is gone for good, then you can now deal with it.

You made me scared when you said the coming up of Dangote, Port Harcourt, Kaduna and all the refineries would not bring down the price of fuel, but government officials keep telling us that it would bring this thing down; can we say they are deceiving Nigerians, and therefore, they should face the reality? Secondly, while citing examples of social interventions, you skipped the last eight years of Buhari, do you think Tinubu is worse already, or it is going to be better than what Buhari put on ground during his days?

The hope you can have is that Tinubu would be better than Buhari because even Buhari should pray that Tinubu should be better than him. All of us should pray. I pray that President Tinubu should be far better than Buhari because we want to make progress in this country.

It is my prayer that the president that succeeds President Tinubu, hopefully me, would be far better than him. The idea is that the society must make progress..

Looking at what President Tinubu is doing, it is too early to know how far he will succeed. We can only pray and wish that he succeeds. The reason I am on your programme is to identify with Nigerians because of the difficult times and also identify with the president and make sure that he succeeds. Whether he is from my party or not, whether he was my opponent or not, he needs to succeed for the country to make progress.

Do you think he got it right with his ministerial nominees?

Government officials are not gods. Many of them are not properly trained in the area they are manning. They make a lot of mistakes. They repeat assumptions. Things that they are supposed to monitor by themselves they are waiting for information from the person they are supposed to monitor.

Ministries of petroleum, trade and industries are supposed to know how much progress Dangote Refinery has made. They should be the ones even contradicting the company if it is over promising.

When a government becomes more efficient, you get more accurate information. So, sometimes it is not that they are trying to deceive you, what they are telling you is an innocent, careless or negligent error; they don’t know it.

What is important is that the price will go up and down if they are truly following market forces. Nigerians should pay attention to other things that will make it easier. For example, the price of petrol has increased, but even if it gets to N5,000 per litre, I personally will not feel it because I am paying attention to other aspects of life that would make me to be far above the level of complaining about such things.

So we need to push more Nigerians into that bracket. And that can be done by making sure that people get more productive and better pay, and that the society is even more habitable, to the point where your movement will not be too dependent on these adjustments that are happening all over the world. It becomes a crisis for you because too many people are in this fragile and vulnerable bracket of income, which by the nature of modern facilitation of productivity we are supposed to be far above that.

Finally, what is your take on the ministerial nominees that have been confirmed?

Well, he (Tinubu) knows what he wants to achieve. These are his people; they campaigned with him, so he must have been giving them assignments, one way or another. He is comfortable with them. They did their Renewed Hope together. It is his right.

But I believe he would learn his lesson; that is, when they start working he may drop some of them and reassign some. He may also add more people to the ones he has, but right now, this is the state of his wisdom; and it is his prerogative to choose his ministers.

There are many of them I wouldn’t have chosen and there are some of them I would have chosen, but that’s me and that’s him.

We should also respect that every major political party is present at the National Assembly.