Much Ado about Ambassador Campbell

Mr. Campbell’s hypothesis was not different from an earlier United States intelligence information that was released a few years ago which equally suggested that Nigeria may finally disintegrate before the end of 2015 if certain serious steps were not taken to address obvious centrifugal and centripetal forces that were exerting tremendous pressures on the nation. […]

Mr. Campbell’s hypothesis was not different from an earlier United States intelligence information that was released a few years ago which equally suggested that Nigeria may finally disintegrate before the end of 2015 if certain serious steps were not taken to address obvious centrifugal and centripetal forces that were exerting tremendous pressures on the nation.

Many were quick to dismiss the 2015 disintegration thesis on the basis of previous national stresses and calamities that the country faced which were thought to be the final blow to Nigeria’s unity but the nation survived though not without bruises. Equally, the recent warning by Ambassador John Campbell on the need for the government and the political class across the various national divides to exercise caution and restraints on the struggle to either capture or and retain power in 2011 is being treated with sentiments and emotions rather than sitting back to take a look at the content of the message and the extent to which it is likely to come to pass.

I think our leaders and politicians especially are a-historical or rather excessively apolitical to reality by venting unnecessary anger on a simple fact as perceived by an individual intelligence or diplomatic officer who has served the most sophisticated intelligence society in the world as an Ambassador to Nigeria for a period during this turbulent civil dispensation.

To dismiss Ambassador Campbell’s assertion in my view is further aggravating the likelihood of the disaster that is about to happen if the 2011 and processes leading to it are mismanaged by those who should listen and act in the country. What I expect that should be done is to quickly cash in on the opportunity that has availed itself if those who are in politics and exerting pressure on the polity are claiming ignorance of the degree of danger that lie ahead in the event that the polity is messed up by those who ordinarily should keep it safe and in order.

One fact is that Nigeria is a federation because it is multi ethnic and multi cultural. Anyone who tries to brush this reality aside is on his own. Similarly, Nigeria is widely diverse in terms of both political and geographical configurations. In power distribution and arrangement, it is critically necessary that all the configurations are taken into cognizance.

That is why in the first place the PDP in 1999 came up with the zoning contraption. A strategy that was to wrestle power from the hands of the dominant Northern elites by the elites from the South. The contraption did further open the horizon for minority groups to access political power in their various units and even the center. That is why today on top of Nigeria sits a president that is of a very minority ethnic stock whose rise to power would have been impossible if the true contraption of the western liberal democracy was in force.

I read in one article sent to me via internet written by one uninformed Nigerian who equally found Ambassador Campbell’s categorization of Nigeria as Muslim North and Christian South as untrue because according to the author of that piece, even in the North, states like Adamawa, Kaduna, Nassarawa, Taraba, Niger, Benue and Plateau states have clear Christian majority while in states like Kano, Kebbi and a few more states the population of Christians is at par with that of Muslims.

 This is not my focus in this piece. One thing though is that the author of that piece is grossly ignorant of what he is talking about and I am compelled to believe that Ambassador Campbell who was merely on a diplomatic sojourn in the country seem to be more knowledgeable about Nigeria than an elite who is a Nigerian by origin.

It doesn’t matter who is the majority and I am not worried about the categorization of Muslim north or Christian south because I do know that such a categorization has predated Ambassador Campbell and his reference to it as well must have been informed by the realities he found both in literature and on the ground. Remember the American Ambassadors are known to tread very carefully the regional, ethnic and even religious divides in Nigeria.

I believe that if 2011 is not managed effectively due to the selfishness of those in power and their cohorts, Nigeria will face very serious problems which might not be far away from the prognosis of Ambassador Campbell and others who have looked critically at the Nigerian problems as they pertain politics.

One fact that is visible is that there is a growing conspiracy to deny an agreement in the PDP just because some categories desire to hang on to political power. This is further fuelled by the inability of the party itself to assert itself as superior to all those elected under it. What we have since seen in Nigeria is the gradual denudation of the political party as an institution and its replacement by the cult of personalities who reign supreme.

This is dangerous and undemocratic and it is responsible for the failure of government to be accountable and responsible to the people. Poverty has since become official government policy because it is only when the people are poor that they can be taken for a ride by the elites who sit on top of their resources.

I agree with Ambassador Campbell that indeed the failure of the PDP to keep to its zoning arrangement is likely to pitch the North against the South. It is also possible that confusion without any definite direction may occur which may likely resemble a spontaneous reaction, which in my view is more dangerous than a defined resurrection. This is the state that societies like Somalia find themselves in today.

I will not want the hunger for power to reduce my country to a free for all fight, God forbid. It is important however that we must wear our thinking caps and do away with sentiments to try to understand the dynamics and magnitudes of the issues at hand with a view to building synergies on how to approach them against any form of unwarranted sentiments that certain forces in the country are dishing out.

What Nigerians must do now especially those in government and the political class is to take a careful look at the sense in Ambassador Campbell’s hypothesis with a view to evolving the right strategies to avert a possible coming to pass of that conclusion instead of the name calling and other uneducated positions that some Nigerians are taking on a mere interpretation of situation based on facts available to both Ambassador Campbell and a great deal of the intelligence community.

I am afraid that just as expressed by John Campbell, Nigeria is at a critical juncture in its history. The survivability or otherwise of the country will to a great extent depend on how well we manage the affairs of the country in the coming months. This is a fact and nobody should romanticize it. We have a task ahead of us. The earlier we wake up to the contemporary reality the better.