‘Naira to remain under pressure against dollar in 2026’

Naira is expected to remain under pressure against the United States dollar in 2026, according to the Chief Economist of the Frica Export Import Bank, Yemi Kale,  He made the disclosure while speaking as a keynote speaker at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026. His report outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the USD/NGN exchange rate, […]

Naira is expected to remain under pressure against the United States dollar in 2026, according to the Chief Economist of the Frica Export Import Bank, Yemi Kale, 

He made the disclosure while speaking as a keynote speaker at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.

His report outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the USD/NGN exchange rate, reflecting varying assumptions around oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.

 

What the outlook is saying 

Under the baseline scenario, the naira is projected to trade around N1,350–N1,450 per dollar by the end of 2026.

According to the outlook, “key assumptions include moderate improvement in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, relative stability in FX policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks, such as a sharp oil price collapse or a global dollar surge.,”

It is projected that by June 2026, Naira will trade at approximately N1,313 to the dollar, and around N1,340 by December 2026.

The outlook notes that currency risks remain elevated, justifying a cautious baseline forecast rather than expectations of strong appreciation.

It noted that the naira would remain under pressure but avoid a sharp collapse, pointing to moderate depreciation or a mild recovery from weaker levels

 

 …Cardinal Stone projects stronger Naira at N1,350–N1,450/$ in 2026  

Meanwhile, the naira could strengthen to between N1,350 and N1,450 per dollar in 2026, driven by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and a more supportive foreign exchange environment.

This is according to CardinalStone Partners’ 2026 economic outlook report titled, “Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains,” published on January 6, 2026.

The report outlines expectations of currency appreciation, easing inflationary pressures, and softer domestic energy prices, even as risks from global oil markets and domestic insecurity persist.

CardinalStone expects the naira to appreciate in 2026 as policy reforms, improved FX liquidity, and moderating inflation combine to stabilise the currency.

“We expect the Naira to appreciate to a range of N1,350.00/$ – N1,450.00/$ in 2026, supported by improving fundamentals,” the report stated.

Despite projecting a weaker global crude oil market due to oversupply and subdued demand, the firm believes Nigeria’s foreign exchange outlook could remain resilient.

“Elsewhere, due to oversupply and weaker demand, crude oil prices are likely to be lower,” the report read.

Lower oil prices typically pressure Nigeria’s FX earnings, but CardinalStone argues that structural improvements in the FX market could help cushion the impact.

The report also projects that declining crude oil prices, combined with a stronger naira, could lead to lower domestic energy costs in 2026. Prices of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) are expected to ease further.

“The weak oil price, coupled with an improving FX outlook, should further drive down the domestic prices of AGO and PMS,” the report said.