Needless delay in conducting national census

Nigeria’s national census has once again been caught in the web of politics and indecision. The country last conducted a census in 2006—nearly two decades ago—far beyond the ten-year interval recommended by the United Nations. Since then, after spending billions of naira on preparations, successive administrations have either ignored or postponed this critical exercise, leaving […]

Nigeria’s national census has once again been caught in the web of politics and indecision. The country last conducted a census in 2006—nearly two decades ago—far beyond the ten-year interval recommended by the United Nations. Since then, after spending billions of naira on preparations, successive administrations have either ignored or postponed this critical exercise, leaving the nation in the dark about its actual population size and demographics.

The most recent attempt, under former President Muhammadu Buhari, was abruptly halted in 2023, just before the general elections after series of promises by political leaders and the National Population Commission (NPC) – the institution vested with the responsibility of carrying out the exercise.

This unnecessary delay has dire consequences for national planning, development, and governance.

Nobody will tell you the actual population of Nigerians, as what is being quoted by policy makers and politicians is around 223 million.

On Tuesday, January 21, 2025, the Senate expressed displeasure over failure to embark on population census in the country and ordered the NPC to ensure that the exercise is carried out this year.

The order was given when the Chairman of the NPC, Nasir Isa Kwarra, appeared before the Senate Committee on National Identity and Population to defend allocations to his agency in the 2025 budget.

The committee, chaired by Senator Abdul Ningi (PDP, Bauchi Central), expressed anger over lack of head counts in the country for the past 19 years.

A few days after, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Abbas Tajudeen, also said Nigeria’s population and Housing Census must be held this year.

The Speaker, during a courtesy visit to his office by officials of the NPC, said that it would be difficult to hold the exercise in 2026 due to preparation for the 2027 elections.

“We must ensure that the next census occurs this year because…Many believe that Nigeria’s population is not as high as projected. There is low voter turnout and school enrolment figures that contradict these estimates,” he said.

Kwarra had earlier sought the National Assembly’s assistance in securing funds for the census and other activities of the NPC.

He said before the exercise was suspended in 2023, the NPC had successfully completed enumeration area demarcation across 774 LGAs, the development of a national EA frame, the launch of a digital recruitment platform for ad-hoc staff, the pre-tests and trial census to validate tools and methodologies; the procurement of 760,000 Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) for census operations; and the set-up of census situation room for real-time monitoring of census activities.

The postponement was justified in 2023 on the grounds that the government wanted to ensure a smooth political transition, but this excuse does not hold water. Many countries conduct censuses without disrupting their electoral processes. In reality, political considerations – such as fears over how census figures might affect revenue allocation, federal representation, and voter demographics – were likely at play. The tragedy is that apart from some equipment that have been procured, the funds already spent on preparations have largely gone to waste, as delays often lead to the need for fresh funding to restart processes, just as what Kwarra is demanding from the National Assembly.

This is the time for policy makers and politicians to come to terms with the fact that conducting national census is more than just a population count; it is a fundamental tool for economic, social, and political planning. Without accurate data on population size, distribution, and demographics, the government is essentially making policies in the dark.

Census data informs crucial decisions such as resource allocation, infrastructure development, security and governance, private sector investment, electoral representation, among others.

Undoubtedly, the absence of an updated census is costing Nigeria heavily. This is because, international organisations such as the United Nations, World Bank, and development agencies rely on census data to channel aid and intervention programmes.

Besides, many government policies and poverty alleviation programmes are misdirected due to reliance on outdated or estimated population figures.

Having said this, the current administration must rise above political calculations and prioritise the national interest. Nigeria cannot afford to keep postponing the census, as doing so only exacerbates the challenges of governance and development.

President Bola Tinubu’s government should, without further delay, set a firm date for the census. Going by what the NPC chairman said, a lot of grounds have been covered already.

Finally, politicians must stop viewing census figures through the lens of political advantage. The idea that census data can be manipulated to favour certain regions in revenue sharing or representation has long discouraged an honest approach to population counts.

Technology should be fully deployed to minimise human errors and political interference. And the government must act decisively to conduct the census as soon as possible.