Niger: The rumbling that may undermine the calculation

The battle seems already won by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the impending contest at all levels. Niger as it stands is a walkover; the signs are indeed clear. Many are wont to argue that the Power State has always tilted to the ruling party until the last revolt against the Peoples Democratic […]

The battle seems already won by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the impending contest at all levels. Niger as it stands is a walkover; the signs are indeed clear. Many are wont to argue that the Power State has always tilted to the ruling party until the last revolt against the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which held sway for 16 years.

Just recently, some of the bigwigs in the main opposition PDP including four of its gubernatorial aspirants defected to the ruling party. The defectors were led by no other person but the former Nigeria Ambassador to South Africa, Ahmed Ibeto. The defection of what is now referred to as the “Big Four” analysts said could be the last straw for PDP ahead of the main contest.

However, such postulation may look realistic only for those who are not abreast with the ongoing intrigues within the ruling party. Among the stakeholders the infighting triggered by the state’s chief executive’s ground plan to build structure using his own key loyalists is far from over.

The ensuing bad blood created by the anomaly boiled over during the primaries of the party in the state when Governor Abubakar Sani Bello attempted to replace the serving legislators especially at the National Assembly with his own cronies. It takes the intervention of the national headquarters of the party to prevent an apparent anarchy the action would have caused.

As the party celebrates the success of its post primaries reconciliation effort which led to the harvest of key stalwarts of opposition of political parties ahead of the general elections elsewhere across the country however, in Niger there is apparent underground moves to undermine the successes so far recorded.

The underground plot which was targeted at key members of the National Assembly who were returned during the last primaries was said to be the option ‘B’ in the series of efforts to scuttle their second term ambition.

Rumours have been rife of the alleged move by the governor to support persons in the main oppositio party who enjoy some degree of closeness with key stakeholders and leaders within the ruling party.

Some are won’t to wave this insinuation as they may call it, as preposterous. However, Bello’s body language and that of the leadership of the party in the state was indicative of where their solidarity lies right from the very beginning.

As the party leader in the state, who was supposed to be neutral when disagreement arose between party stakeholders as was apparent during and after the primaries of the party, the governor openly took sides and even supplanted the national secretariat because his preferred aspirants lost out in the power play. So when words started making the round that there is underground move by the governor and the party leadership to rally support for candidates of other parties with whom he enjoyed a close relationship. Such insinuation cannot be swept under the carpet.

The rumbling is even rifer in Niger North where Bello hails from with allegations of an ongoing romance with the PDP’s candidate for the senatorial district, Mohammed Duba. Duba for the sake of introduction is one of the sons of the revered General Garba Duba. General Duba and Col Sani Bello, the father of the incumbent Governor do not only belong to the military confraternity but enjoyed a friendship which spans several decades. So invariably, their sons who are within the same age brackets, therefore shared a connection that transcends mere friendship.

When tongues wag therefore that the incumbent is favourably disposed to the candidature of the younger Duba with whom he shared a close affinity even though the latter belong to an opposing political platform, not many doubted the rumour.

But Bello did not even give room for doubt right from the onset and that informed the gulf which has continued to widen between him and some of the legislators, despite the reconciliation brokered by the national secretariat. As the clock ticks toward the main contest, the gulf widened by the day with key legislators always absent at party’s event in the state.

At a meeting last month where the incumbent was supposed to interface with party stakeholders which include members of the National Assembly from the state and avail them information on his scorecards based on the party’s development blueprint, most National Assembly members especially the three serving senators were absent. This is no doubt a serious indictment on the party and the chief executive that all was not well with the party in the state.

Perhaps the most worrisome development was the absence of most of National Assembly members from the party’s governorship campaign flag off where the vice president Yemi Osinbajo was the guest of honour. Their absence understandably caught the ever vigilant attention of the media with different headlines highlighting the ranging discontent and misgivings.

As analyst have repeatedly pointed out,  it would be disastrous if the party allow an individual interest to override the collective aspirations of returning its candidates at all level in the impending contest. Doing so would amount to opening its flanks for attacks by the opposition parties in the future and putting it at a disadvantage. That is why the national secretariat must call him to order before it is too late because the battle ahead is a collective one and all hands must be on the deck to ensure the success of the party in the end.

And come to think of it, the greatest loser of the needless spat the Governor ignited is himself because losing the support of the three serving Senators, who command mass followership in their respective zones at this time of the electioneering campaign would have dire consequences on Bello’s return bid.

In fact, the effect of any altercation with them at this point would be more telling in Zone C, where Senator Abdullahi Sabi has been able to endeared himself into the hearts of many through the projects he had initiated and influenced as well as several bills which have direct bearing on the people he has been able to sponsored and co-initiated.

The governor’s camp may argue that he stands at an advantage especially that the Kontagora emirate where he hailed has more local government areas than Baraden Borgu. But like analysts have repeatedly pointed out, Sabi’s influence transcends the entire Zone including Kontagora emirate where he has been lauded for initiating a bill which seeks to upgrade the exsting Federal College of Education to a Federal University of Education. So any move against the senator would trigger a corresponding reaction especially from the highly enlightened population across the eight local government areas.

Apart from the troubling consequence that a frosty relationship between Bello and Sabi may have on his chances and that of the party in the zone, the bad blood between Abdullahi Idris Garba (Mai Solar) and the governor over the latter’s move to deny the former’s attempt to return to his position in the House of Representatives has already created serious tension in the zone.

There is also the Nasko factor looming large especially that the PDP governorship candidate is also an influential figure within Bello’s own emirate having hailed from a local government area within. It is therefore in the Governor’s own interest to thread with utmost caution.

But what is more worrisome is the fact that in a move to build a protective wall around himself, Bello has failed to realize that a missteps on his part may also rob off on the second term of President Muhammadu Buhari on whose good will he rode to power. Niger North has been the President’s strong base in the state and a missteps on the part of Bello in trying to support a candidate of an opposing party would divide votes against the president and the party in the Zone.

Ubandoma wrote this piece from Minna, Niger State.