Nigerian Shi’a

What is it that has not been said about the detention of the leader of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN)  (followers of the Shi’a sect in Nigeria) Ibrahim El Zakzaky and wife and  related developments? The answer is, nothing. The judiciary has ordered that they be released on bail. A significant element of informed […]

What is it that has not been said about the detention of the leader of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN)  (followers of the Shi’a sect in Nigeria) Ibrahim El Zakzaky and wife and  related developments? The answer is, nothing. The judiciary has ordered that they be released on bail. A significant element of informed public opinion, the media and human rights activists have  advised the federal government to release him on bail as ordered by the courts. The international community must have utilized its considerable leverage to advise President Buhari to show appropriate respect for the judiciary and the rule of law by releasing the Sheikh. Many Muslim clerics who would not share a shade with Shi’a have advised that he be released as ordered by the court. The loudest demand for his release, however, has come from his followers, and these are becoming more and more desperate.

It is reasonable to assume that the federal and Kaduna State governments have good reasons for defying all these pressures. Good reasons we can only speculate because they have not been made public. Perhaps his continued incarceration is informed by respect for certain sensitivities. One of these could be relief for the brutalized people of Zaria who had endured years of habouring a man and his followers that had no respect for neighbours, the community, authorities or the country. This is unlikely to be the reason, because every physical evidence of the existence of El-Zakzaki in Zaria and environs are said to have been obliterated, such that if he is released on bail today, he may have to squat with one of his many fanatical followers in Zaria, and neighbours would have much to say here. It is difficult to see how the man can ever resume his life in Zaria, or, for that matter, most parts of Nigeria.

Another reason could be that the military is still smarting from the effrontery of his followers for which they paid dearly. The release of the leader of the IMN could be considered an assault on the standing of the top brass of the military which the President feels duty bound to protect at all cost. It is conceivable that no price is too high to ram this point home, including a near-universal demand that the rule of law must be superior to the rule of the barrel. Yet another could be the considerable influence of the Governor of Kaduna State who grew with the monster that threatened to bring the whole house down under his watch. It is possible that some machismo is at play here, and the go-getter governor would like to go on record as the custodian of the key that kept the Sheikh indoors. Worse, there is the possibility that no quality thinking is going into dealing with this problem by the Buhari administration.

All these are speculations, of course, but they are fueled by the seeming lack of rationale behind the continued incarceration of a man which poses greater threat to national security than his freedom under bail. There could be genuine concerns that he could do an Nnamdi Kanu, that is, bolt away after pressure to get him bail and resurface in the shores of another land and resume howling trouble. Given our gaping holes in security, this is a genuine concern, but one that can be assuaged by the state’s insistence that those prominent persons who are demanding bail for him stand sureties with heavy penalties. It is possible that some scenarios have been considered involving El Zakzaky urging his followers from a safe distance like, say, Iran or Lebanon to rise and overthrow the Nigerian regime. That scenario would have shown that he will be more influential over his boisterous and radicalized followers in exile than at home. The facts on the ground is that Nigeria is the man’s natural habitat, and the success of his recruitment drive has been his presence and the disciplined proximity to his army of recruiters.

The state could argue that it has challenged his bail in court and is actually  prosecuting him. This is its right, and to that degree it must not be stampeded into abandoning steps that conform with due process. Lawyers will argue pros and cons of the state’s positions on those rare days when half of Kaduna city is cordoned-off to allow the Sheikh to be brought in for trial. The federal and Kaduna State governments must be aware of the causes of the peak in restiveness among his followers, which are claims that he is seriously ill and in need of medical attention overseas. There is little doubt that he had suffered major setbacks in his health while in detention, including some considerable loss of sight. The stakes must be very high if his continued detention and lack of adequate medical attention as claimed by his followers will leave the government unmoved regarding granting him some room for freedom or access to better medical attention.

If the state’s intelligence works, it must be telling those that believe that the nation is safer with El Zakzaki in detention that not a dent is being made on his following. Indeed, it is possible that his following has grown in numbers and in militancy. People and sect that feed on martyrdom will draw greater strength from the ‘struggle’ to free him, at all cost. The Nigerian version of the Shia is not entirely sold to the idea that the death of El Zakzaki while in detention is a manna from heaven. He and his followers want him released, either to get medical attention or unconditionally. This is the chink in their armour. They are convinced that they can harass and bulldoze their way into getting him freed, but the more they march and insult those responsible for his detention, the more the nation worries about their commitment to peace and respect for laws of the land. On the other hand, who else is left to make the case that it is both the duty of the state to protect the law and  to ensure that a free El Zakzaki does not constitute a threat to the nation?

If there are options to the current routine involving hundreds or thousands of  ElZakzaki’s  followers scaring law abiding citizens and taking on law and order agencies, they need to be put in place. One of these could be the negotiated release of the Sheikh and allowing him access to good medical facilities, even if his trial continues. For  this to happen, the government must be demonstrably  open to considering options, and all those respected Nigerians who believe justice and national security will be best served by his release must be prepared to shoulder some responsibility for some kind of settlement that frees the nation from a frightening scenario: the death of the Sheikh in detention.

Abubakar wrote this piece from Abuja