Nigerians express mixed feelings on NIMET flood predictions

The 2012 floods which affected the 36 states of the federation were severe in 256 local government areas, with about 3,870 deaths and 363 injuries recorded from the disasters. The floods also left behind 84,679 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) registered in camps across the country.So it was a tensed situation when NIMET released the 2013 […]

The 2012 floods which affected the 36 states of the federation were severe in 256 local government areas, with about 3,870 deaths and 363 injuries recorded from the disasters. The floods also left behind 84,679 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) registered in camps across the country.
So it was a tensed situation when NIMET released the 2013 rainfall pattern saying that what was witnessed in 2012 was child’s play.
But soon after NIMET released its report, some residents in a flood prone area in Kaduna moved back to their houses which were affected seriously by the 2012 flood. They were so sure the flood wouldn’t come in 2013 but no one took them serious.
The rainy season has ended in many parts of the country and neither the flood nor heavy rains as predicted has come to pass.
In Abuja Mr Michael Ujah, a civil servant said the prediction of having more floods in 2013 by NIMET was wrong. “The rain has come and gone with little or no destruction like we had the previous year. This is to show that we do not have a system that is effective. You can’t come out to make statement that will deceive millions of Nigerians and go home and relax that all is well. Things don’t work like this in developed countries,” he added.
Ujah also said that many people were scared of what happened last year and the prediction contributed to their problems and lots of farmers could not engage in their farming activities for fear of losing their labour to the flood while others relocated and are finding it difficult to adapt to their new environment.
An Abuja resident, Mrs Alice John, said the prediction about flood in 2013 was quite scary. “It wasn’t really from experts alone but also from religious organisations too. I won’t say it was a wrong one because it did not come out as predicted; it could be the hand of God responding to the cry of his people.
 “On the other side, people may think it could be that the experts had wrong signals or did not do their home work well to have given such prediction but I believe that it is the prayer of the masses that changed the prediction.
“People who are in flood associated areas lived in fear all through the rainy season and some could not do much in terms of farming and investing for fear of losing their lives or properties and you think God’s mercy will leave them, No,” she added.
In Kwara State, following the prediction of heavy rainfall in 2013 by the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) which gave warning of recurrence of last year’s flood, the state like other states affected last year swung into action to avoid the happening of 2012 by rolling out several measures against flooding. The measures included massive sensitization and enlightenment campaigns to urge residents to vacate as soon as they see signs of flooding, creation of more than 10 settlement camps for those likely to be displaced, proposed building of prototype houses and the dredging of Asa river, among others.
However, September and October have passed while the dry season has gradually set in with no flooding situation experienced to the consternation of anxious residents. Some of the residents who spoke to Daily Trust in Kwara State said even though they fretted about the NIMET’s forecast, it was a thing of happiness that the flood didn’t occur.
In Kogi, the Environmental Health Officers Association of Nigeria, Comrade Solomon Anyegwu, said the fact that flood did come does not mean the prediction was false.
“We have two kinds of floods, the flash flood and the other as a result of infrastructure failure like the dams. When the dams are being threatened by water, they will release the water thereby leading to flood. But the fact that the prediction did not come this time doesn’t mean NIMET is wrong,” he said
Comrade Solomon said prediction cannot be 100 percent correct because the supernatural law always surpasses the natural law.
Also, a resident of Lokoja, Ibrahim Agadi who was affected by flood last year said the last flood was a coincidence, saying that from the records severe flood like last year’s always happened once in every 40 years.
Benue residents however said that their consistent prayers to God averted this year’s heavy flooding earlier predicted by the Nigerian Metrological Agency (NIMET) to affect at least five local government areas in the state.
Mr Terkula Joseph who lives in Wurukum suburb of Makurdi that was overtaken by flood last year said that the prediction did not come to pass because God was mindful of people’s supplications.
“You will agree with me that the year is gradually coming to an end with the expiration of the rainy season and we are yet to witness any flood as predicted by NIMET. I will simply say this is the Lord’s doing.”
Similarly, Anthony Idoko of Wadata area has attributed failure of the prediction to the mighty God who overrules the affairs of men.