NiMET prediction and dams in the North

A flood-control dam is meant to capture some portion of in-flowing floodwaters, and subsequently release that water at a lower discharge level than would have occurred otherwise. By capturing and storing river flows for later use, dams and reservoirs have contributed to the global supply of water for homes, industrial, and agricultural uses with a […]

A flood-control dam is meant to capture some portion of in-flowing floodwaters, and subsequently release that water at a lower discharge level than would have occurred otherwise.
By capturing and storing river flows for later use, dams and reservoirs have contributed to the global supply of water for homes, industrial, and agricultural uses with a considerable amount of rainfall a contributory factor.
However, where the inflow of the water to the dams is threatened there would be a corresponding effect on the residents who depend on such dams for various purposes.
 With the 2014 Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET) Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) report released recently in Abuja, predicted a short rainy season while dams in the far North may have difficulties getting enough in-flow of water this year.
It was predicted by the agency that most parts of the country are expected to experience shorter length of rainy season in 2014. The length of the rainy season is to range from 100 days in the northernmost part of the country to 300 days in the southernmost parts. The states that are likely to experience shorter length rains in the North are Maiduguri (Borno), Bauchi, Gombe and Potiskum (Yobe).
The rainfall cessation is predicted to be earlier than normal over most parts of the North and Central States and much later over the southernmost areas. The rainy season, as predicted, would end between first week of October in the North and fourth week of December in the South.
The implications of having below normal rainfall amount in North, as stated in the report, would create water stress for agriculture, energy production and navigation across the country. These key economic activities which depend on rainfall need to be supported with alternative measures such as irrigation, good dam management practice and drenching of the waterways.
The report also stated the likely challenge of generating electricity due to less than normal rainfall prediction in many parts of the country this year. This may be aggravated by the prospects of early cessation of the rains, as well as shorter length of the season expected in the North. These may affect Kainji and Jabba dams resulting in low flows and reduced power generation.
During the presentation of the 2014 SRP, Director General of NiMET, Dr. Anthony Anuforum said: “Most part of the country would see early cessation of rainfall. Dry conditions may set in earlier than normal… overall we may have shorter than normal rainy season that therefore means that the planting season will be shorter.
“This is very important because it now advises farmers to use early maturing species in their cropping to make sure that within the shorter rainy season they can quickly plant and the crops will reach maturity and harvesting within the short rainy season that is likely to occur.”
But, according to Livinus Onuoha, a civil servant, NiMET still have a lot of work to do in order to get their predictions right considering the fact that its 2013 prediction was not accurate.
He said: “Do you think it is easy to go and tell an illiterate farmer to change from what he has been farming for years? No. All we need is a system that is working, experts and all the apparatus to work with in order to get it right.”
Shuaibu Isah, resides in Niger State, and believes the prediction of NiMET could spell hazard for the country in terms of food production. He believes that shortage of food would lead to high cost of foodstuffs.
“Should there be low rainfall, the farmer would be unable to yield more crops as he usually does, with this, there is likely to be scarcity of food, just like the fuel scarcity we are witnessing now. I fear same to happen in food supply,” he said.
Shuaibu said further that aside the likely effect on agriculture, the low rainfall forecast should be taken seriously by the necessary dam authorities to ensure that enough water is stored from the little rainfall to forestall the dangers of low water in-flow to the dams.
It could also be recalled that NiMET predicted in 2013 that heavy rains that caused devastation in different parts of the country and claimed scores of lives in 2012 may occur in 2013.
Anuforom reportedly said, during the SRP in 2013 that the rainfall pattern in most parts of Nigeria was likely to be similar to that of 2012. However, some areas in North-western part of the country, which also fall within the catchment area of River Niger, are predicted to have a total rainfall that may exceed that of 2012. These are Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara states and environs.
He, however, advised relevant authorities to use the NIMET’s updates issued regularly to control possible adverse impacts, while pointing out that the forecast was not automatic as the predictions could change due to climate change.
‘‘The conditions that determine rainfall pattern over Nigeria have become more variable due to the effects of climate change and global warming,” he stated.
However, there is no doubting the fact that the earlier prediction of heavy rains with likelihood of flood in 2013 which did not happen has put a dent on NiMET’s prediction.
Sule Ojonugwa, an educationist, said the 2013 prediction put a lot of people in fear to the extent that so many left their homes and others could not farm for fear of losing their farms to flood and, as a result, so many suffered untold hardship.
“I think it is better for NiMET to keep quiet and leave everything in God’s hand, because you cannot know it better than Him when it comes to the laws of nature,” he stressed.
John Ogbu said though the prediction didn’t happen, but the plus is that it put everyone ravaged by 2012 flood on alert and even government took some precautionary measures.
“I don’t think the prediction was totally wrong but, rather, it was averted because of the prayers,” he concludes.
In similar manner, the agency has warned about the likely early cessation of rains and shorter length of the season in far north which may affect the flow of water to the dams and possibly affect irrigation, hydro power generation.
However, Sokoto, Adamawa, Oyo and Ogun states should expect above normal rainfall and, as a result, dam managers in these areas should watch out for prospects of dam overflow, which may cause flooding if the water is not released timely.
Standard precautionary measures including the use of NiMET’s SRP is, therefore, recommended for application by dam operators to forestall hazards.
Although dams can heavily modify the volume of water flowing downstream, change the timing, frequency and duration of high and low flows, and alter the natural rates at which rivers rise and fall during runoff events, there is need for stakeholders and the populace not to ignore SRP.
Necessary measures, according to Abiina Vincent, an Abuja resident, should be in place to forestall the dangers of the prediction, stating the need for the government and people to be proactive.