NIMET’s low rainfall forecast

Some say that NIMET’s forecast last year was off the mark because it predicted then that several parts of the country would witness heavy rains that could trigger massive flooding. In the event that what happened was not on the scale of NIMET’s warning has evidently caused a lowering of the guards. But such reaction […]

Some say that NIMET’s forecast last year was off the mark because it predicted then that several parts of the country would witness heavy rains that could trigger massive flooding. In the event that what happened was not on the scale of NIMET’s warning has evidently caused a lowering of the guards. But such reaction is hardly helpful because predictions by agencies such as NIMET may depend on several other factors. A significant outcome of this, however, is the awareness the country depends largely on the rains for much of its agricultural activities.
It is easy to see the danger in this, because it would mean in effect that the nation’s agricultural efforts would not bear much fruits if the rains are scanty this year. The consequence of this for national food security would be catastrophic. If, as the NIMET prediction appears to warn, the rains will be thin, it is also possible that they may not come early enough for even the farmers, who would want to cultivate and plant early as advised.
NIMET’s advice should therefore be a source of concern to stakeholders in the agricultural sector. Steps must be taken to calm any anxiety that farmers may harbour, and which could make them feel discouraged, or confused about how to proceed to avoid failure. There is also no point being pessimistic about what may, or may not, happen.
NIMET’s warning also is a reminder of the danger of the dependence on rain fed agriculture, which is unreliable and therefore dangerous for any nation’s food self-sufficiency plans. Although Nigeria has several bodies of water and reservoirs, many of these are dormant now across the country. Tiga Dam in Kano, the biggest in West Africa, for instance, and many others especially in the northern parts of the country, are not being adequately  utilized or being utilized at all for irrigation and dry season farming and for the generation of electricity. Tiga has been dormant now for nearly the past 30 years. This is scandalous for a country teeming with mass of unemployed youth, and whose general agricultural output is still very low and depends on food imports worth billions of dollars each year.
Apart from the dams, the nation equally has rich arable wetlands that, if well utilized, will greatly improve agricultural output. Millions of the country’s peasant farmers rely on antiquated tools and depend on small pieces of land that have been over-grazed and over-cultivated and are therefore declining in productivity. This is certainly not good enough, in the light of the NIMET warning and generally for the prosecution of the nation’s agriculture in the long run.
The federal government, along with state governments on whose soil some of the dams are located, should plan and design an immediate programme of how to mobilise and assist farmers with techniques, equipment and know-how to engage in productive farming that does not come from rainfall.
With the knowledge and range of modern equipment and techniques available, it is simply ill-advised to continue to depend on the vagaries of nature in the quest for food self-sustenance. Agriculture is today not merely a business for subsistence; it has become a major occupation that contributes a great deal to the GDP of many nations.  Nigeria should not be an exception, in spite of the abundance of oil resources.