No clear pathway yet to attain $1trn economy – Afrinvest Report

Nigeria requires a minimum annual growth rate of 21.9% at an exchange rate of N1,500.00/$1.00 to attain its $1.0 trillion economy drive by 2031, Afrinvest West Limited report has stated.  It would be recalled that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that the outcome of the country’s rebased GDP in 2024 showed a nominal […]

Nigeria requires a minimum annual growth rate of 21.9% at an exchange rate of N1,500.00/$1.00 to attain its $1.0 trillion economy drive by 2031, Afrinvest West Limited report has stated. 

It would be recalled that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that the outcome of the country’s rebased GDP in 2024 showed a nominal size at N372.8 trillion up from N314.02trn in 2023, using 2019 as the new base year in July 2025.

Afrinvest West Limited, in its report titled, “Nigerian Banking Sector Report 2025,” x-rayed the reforms in both fiscal and monetary policy initiated by the President Bola Tinubu administration, stressing that the reforms lack critical enablers to translate them into measurable results.

“However, more than two years into the Tinubu administration, Nigeria has yet to find a clear pathway to achieving this trillion-dollar target. Instead, recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) – based on the newly published rebased GDP figures – reveals a sobering reality: nearly half of the economy’s size in 2022 ($478.0bn) has been eroded by a mix of external shocks and self-inflicted economic disruptions. 

“While many of the administration’s announced reforms appear sound in principle and could, in theory, lay the groundwork for transformative growth, critical enablers to translate these reforms into measurable results are missing from the playbook,” the report reads.

It identified lack of institutional reforms as the major limitation of the positive performance of the reforms, highlighting the constraints to the growth of the economy.

“In our 2023 BSR: “Getting Nigeria to Work Again!”, we warned that policy blueprints such as the PAC report are unlikely to deliver high-impact results without deep institutional reforms. This position was informed by a root-cause analysis of why prior reform programmes fell short. Two years in, the same institutional weaknesses remain – hampering implementation capacity and diluting the potential gains of announced reforms.

“As a result of these enduring structural frailties, Nigeria’s economy continues to exhibit growth retardation characteristics: (i). insecurity, especially in agrarian communities, limiting agricultural productivity, (ii). large-scale oil theft, eroding vital export revenues, (iii). fiscal opacity, reducing public trust and investor confidence, (iv). public sector extravagance, diverting resources from development priorities, and (v). gross impunity, undermining the rule of law and accountability,” the report reads.

It proposed a framework aimed at reengineering the country’s economic fortunes through decisive, transparent, and reform-driven governance in high-impact sectors.

“To close these gaps and reposition Nigeria for a leap forward (notably, the $1.0tn economy size target), we propose that the administration adopt the philosophical mantra of “ACT-BOLD” – a framework for reengineering Nigeria’s economic fortunes through decisive, transparent, and reform-driven governance. 

“Central to this recommendation is the need to prioritise accelerated growth in the seven high-impact sectors leveraging recommended policy imperatives to catalyse Nigeria into a new frontier of accelerated, inclusive, and sustainable growth,” the report reads. 

…Subsidy Savings on infrastructural project

Speaking at the 30th anniversary, the group managing director,  Afrinvest West Africa Ltd, Dr. Ike Chioke highlighted that the country has witnessed both global economic contractions and expansion since the last 30 years, commending the federal government over the removal of fuel subsidy.

“President Bola Tinubu did the right thing in my view by removing the petrol subsidy and this subsidy has prevented the Nigerian economy from attaining its rightful growth trajectory.

“But I think what can be done better would be for the government to channel the incremental savings from the subsidy that’s remoed to investing appropriately in infrastructure, fixing our road and bridges , fixing telecommunications infrastructure, making sure the power gets to the people and then also investing in the human capital sector, education and health care , that would also help bring the cost of living down for Nigerians,” he said.

The firm’s Chairman, Donald Lawson, represented by Prof Osita Ogbu, Development Economist and former Economic Adviser to the President expressed the firm’s commitment to innovation and harnessing digital transformation to embed sustainability aimed at extending reach across Africa.

“The next 30 years present new opportunities and challenges. The financial services landscape is being reshaped by technology, by the imperative of sustainability, and by the forces of globalization,” he said.

 

…To be continued online…