Now that the 2019 polls are here
The die is cast. 2019 that seemed so far away, nearly 4 years ago, has arrived and Nigerians are once again standing on a threshold of history. On Saturday nationwide, citizens are going to file into those polling booths and cast a ballot in favour of the candidate of their choice. There are 92 political […]
The die is cast. 2019 that seemed so far away, nearly 4 years ago, has arrived and Nigerians are once again standing on a threshold of history. On Saturday nationwide, citizens are going to file into those polling booths and cast a ballot in favour of the candidate of their choice. There are 92 political parties in the contest, and it is still not certain how many Presidential candidates ran the whole race up to this point.
Whichever way one looks at it, this contest is really between two political parties, the All Progressives Congress and the People’s Democratic Party – incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
The political sphere in Nigeria has never before been this fired up, with the campaigning characterised by massive mega rallies, and each candidate rising above the other from rally to rally, the fact remaining that to a discerning mind, were credible exit polls given presently, any of the candidates, Buhari and Atiku, could emerge the winner.
There is a major significance in the 2019 contest. While there is little generational difference, the main contending candidates are both Northern Muslims thus between them, religion and ethnicity may not play dominant roles in determining the choices Nigerians make. Where ethnicity rears its ugly head is in the choice of the running mates, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo being Yoruba from the South West, while running mate to Atiku, former Governor of Anambra State Peter Obi is Igbo from the South East of Nigeria. While the ruling APC has dangled the promise of a shot at the Presidency for the Igbo in 2023 in return for their support in this bid, the nearest the Igbo would get to the seat of power since the 2nd Republic 1979 to 1983 is now that their son is on the ticket with Atiku Abubakar. If the Igbo reason that a bird in the hand is worth the promise of the distant 2023, Atiku poses an irrefutable threat. A handshake of the North and any region of the South is the simplest winning formula.
The total number of registered voters for the 2019 elections is given by INEC as 84,004,084 having appreciated by more than 14 million in comparison to 2015 when there were 70, 383,427 registered voters. Crucial states of Kano and Lagos in the quest for popular vote, still top the states with Kano 5,457,747 and Lagos 6,570,291 registered voters respectively. So far, the rally sizes reveal that the dynamics have been affected first by realignment of powerful zonal politicians and as well by the crisis in the ruling APC with regards to the contentious Lagos, Zamfara, Imo and Rivers States with likely profound negative impact on the Buhari chances of winning the popular votes from Kano and Lagos alone. In real terms, thus, the crucial contest is between the South West and the South East, with the North, in a win win situation.
While Atiku is coming in from the political party PDP, dislodged in 2015 decidedly for misrule, corruption and profligacy, President Buhari has led a regime that saw to the realisation of infrastructure that had remained mere mirages under the PDP, delivering completed projects left comatose in 16 years to the pleasure of Nigerians. But at what price? At the price of hunger, deprivation and lack causing Nigerians to miss those so called profligate years. President Buhari wins high scores on his personal integrity, but the integrity pales in the face of the corruption that unfolded even under his nose, the glaring safety of the corrupt serving the regime, against the “persecution” of those who served under PDP till 2015 and are in the opposition. Atiku Abubakar portrayed as corrupt, overrides that with a track record of personal success without having been found guilty of committing any crimes – and showing that he could run a regime of inclusiveness – the desire of the diverse groups of Nigeria, and thus posing nonetheless a real credible challenge. If we must face it, President Buhari’s undoing is his inability to spread his appointments across the nation’s gaping fault lines, worsened by his seeming insensitivity to the nepotistic appearance of his regime. A dismembered Nigeria set against a united nation diminishes all merits of President Buhari’s personal integrity.
Yet Nigerians have in the last three years, seen accountability once more coming into play. In the face of lack, people are aware that much less pillage of the treasury is going on and the desire is for more tightening of the stitches in the leakages. Tax revenues, remarkable performance of the Customs and Excise and recovered looted funds have made sure salary obligations of civil servants have been met with comfort to date. Infrastructure of roads are being delivered on paid contract certificates from contractors, a far cry from the PDP years under Goodluck Jonathan when the treasury was pillaged with projects abandoned. One shudders to imagine this being upset by a regime that would review even the paltry gains made in the fight against corruption. Atiku Abubakar and the PDP are therefore held up as the looming danger, and much as the Buhari regime is felt as a heavy yoke, the fear of a return to the PDP years of profligacy makes the APC the Hobson choice, heads or tails.
Above all of this is the dire need for an election that must be adjudged transparent, believably free, fair, and held in peace and devoid of any violence. Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Professor Mahmud Yakubu, God help him, carries a heavy burden, to ensure that all registered voters exercise their right to vote, and that each vote is counted. The task of ensuring safety for the voters and their votes, and the exercise of this right without intimidation belongs to the security agencies and institutions. They hold the key that will make or mar the nation’s future, on a delicate balance from Saturday.
Between a rock and a hard place, Nigerians walk a razor-thin edge this coming Saturday given the glaring practical dichotomies that are in strong play. We have set sail and, to quote the rock singer Sting, “emotions are the sail, and blind faith is the mast”. The manifestos and facts of reason raised here may not even come into play. It would in the end be a choice made by majority of Nigerians in prayer that God Almighty “guide our noble cause” and determine the choice that guarantees the overall well-being of the people.